UEFA CL 2012-13 Simulations

Barcelona and Real Madrid re huge favorites to take the title. Part of the reason for that, is that many contenders might lose early to lesser teams and make the road easier for them.

Based on 100K simulations:

Group	Country	Team	Coefficients	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Round16	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
7	Esp	FC Barcelona	25.23	14.65	0.913	0.078	0.008	0.001	0.131	0.176	0.166	0.172	0.346
4	Esp	Real Madrid	22.66	11.87	0.643	0.237	0.097	0.023	0.142	0.167	0.153	0.154	0.264
8	Eng	Manchester United	20.43	13.56	0.842	0.126	0.028	0.004	0.304	0.294	0.192	0.103	0.074
6	Ger	Bayern München	19.25	12.21	0.638	0.250	0.102	0.010	0.307	0.258	0.167	0.089	0.068
1	Por	FC Porto	17.99	11.76	0.627	0.243	0.106	0.023	0.353	0.258	0.147	0.070	0.043
4	Eng	Manchester City	15.35	8.67	0.190	0.363	0.315	0.133	0.226	0.141	0.091	0.053	0.042
4	Ger	Borussia Dortmund	13.95	8.08	0.147	0.312	0.364	0.176	0.204	0.118	0.073	0.038	0.026
5	Eng	Chelsea	16.37	10.53	0.384	0.326	0.262	0.029	0.325	0.208	0.107	0.045	0.024
2	Eng	Arsenal	14.88	9.83	0.425	0.274	0.187	0.114	0.330	0.213	0.100	0.038	0.018
5	Ukr	Shakhtar Donetsk	15.24	10.01	0.311	0.330	0.320	0.039	0.329	0.179	0.085	0.032	0.016
5	Ita	Juventus	15.06	9.91	0.301	0.325	0.333	0.041	0.326	0.173	0.082	0.030	0.015
3	Ita	AC Milan	13.93	9.45	0.366	0.285	0.215	0.133	0.343	0.187	0.082	0.027	0.012
7	Por	Benfica	13.00	8.55	0.068	0.586	0.249	0.098	0.401	0.156	0.066	0.022	0.009
3	Rus	Zenit St. Petersburg	13.08	9.05	0.315	0.285	0.241	0.159	0.337	0.165	0.068	0.022	0.008
6	Esp	Valencia	13.90	9.38	0.212	0.395	0.332	0.061	0.336	0.172	0.069	0.022	0.008
2	Ger	Schalke 04	12.25	8.60	0.267	0.285	0.250	0.198	0.320	0.151	0.058	0.017	0.006
3	Esp	Málaga CF	11.56	8.25	0.228	0.267	0.280	0.225	0.286	0.142	0.050	0.013	0.004
1	Ukr	Dinamo Kiev	11.93	8.58	0.183	0.347	0.330	0.139	0.348	0.126	0.042	0.010	0.003
6	Fra	Lille OSC	12.09	8.57	0.146	0.325	0.436	0.093	0.307	0.111	0.040	0.011	0.003
1	Fra	Paris Saint-Germain	11.56	8.39	0.170	0.330	0.350	0.149	0.337	0.114	0.038	0.009	0.003
2	Gre	Olympiakos Piraeus	9.87	7.51	0.170	0.231	0.281	0.317	0.266	0.097	0.030	0.007	0.002
2	Fra	Montpellier	8.97	7.08	0.138	0.209	0.282	0.371	0.242	0.078	0.022	0.004	0.001
4	Ned	Ajax	5.49	4.70	0.020	0.088	0.224	0.668	0.072	0.024	0.009	0.002	0.001
8	Por	Sporting Braga	10.71	8.10	0.094	0.442	0.310	0.154	0.406	0.100	0.024	0.005	0.001
7	Rus	Spartak Moscow	7.57	5.94	0.014	0.223	0.433	0.329	0.182	0.042	0.011	0.002	0.000
3	Bel	Anderlecht	7.37	6.28	0.091	0.162	0.264	0.483	0.189	0.051	0.012	0.002	0.000
8	Tur	Galatasaray	8.66	7.02	0.053	0.312	0.387	0.249	0.295	0.057	0.011	0.001	0.000
7	Sco	Celtic	5.02	4.59	0.005	0.113	0.310	0.572	0.099	0.016	0.003	0.000	0.000
1	Cro	Dinamo Zagreb	4.56	4.59	0.019	0.080	0.213	0.688	0.086	0.012	0.001	0.000	0.000
8	Rom	CFR Cluj	4.90	4.83	0.012	0.120	0.275	0.593	0.119	0.012	0.001	0.000	0.000
6	Bls	BATE Borisov	3.02	3.36	0.004	0.030	0.130	0.836	0.031	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000
5	Den	FC Nordsjælland	2.63	3.03	0.004	0.019	0.086	0.892	0.020	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000

UEFA EL 2012-13 Simulations

Atlético Madrid are the favorites, many CL teams might drop out and win the title as well:

Based on 100K simulations:

Group	Country	Team	Coefficients	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Round32	Round16	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
2	Esp	Atlético Madrid	15.01	13.78	0.860	0.115	0.021	0.004	0.254	0.232	0.173	0.123	0.086	0.106
	Eng	Manchester City							0.055	0.051	0.049	0.040	0.037	0.081
	Ger	Borussia Dortmund							0.075	0.067	0.058	0.046	0.041	0.077
	Esp	Real Madrid							0.005	0.008	0.007	0.008	0.013	0.056
10	Eng	Tottenham Hotspur	11.42	11.87	0.596	0.279	0.110	0.016	0.311	0.236	0.147	0.088	0.049	0.044
	Eng	Chelsea							0.064	0.058	0.046	0.033	0.025	0.035
	Ita	Juventus							0.098	0.079	0.057	0.040	0.027	0.033
	Ukr	Shakhtar Donetsk							0.093	0.074	0.054	0.039	0.027	0.033
11	Ger	Bayer Leverkusen	10.57	11.55	0.617	0.251	0.098	0.034	0.344	0.244	0.142	0.074	0.036	0.028
4	Eng	Newcastle United	8.98	10.16	0.454	0.283	0.173	0.090	0.299	0.203	0.117	0.063	0.030	0.024
5	Ger	VfB Stuttgart	10.55	11.80	0.666	0.215	0.088	0.031	0.363	0.254	0.139	0.070	0.032	0.023
	Ger	Bayern München							0.017	0.019	0.016	0.014	0.013	0.023
	Esp	Valencia							0.114	0.088	0.055	0.034	0.020	0.021
6	Ita	Napoli	9.29	10.73	0.486	0.301	0.162	0.051	0.343	0.216	0.120	0.059	0.027	0.021
3	Ger	Borussia Mönchengladbach	8.95	10.40	0.445	0.302	0.190	0.063	0.320	0.206	0.115	0.060	0.027	0.020
	Eng	Arsenal							0.052	0.045	0.033	0.023	0.015	0.018
12	Ger	Hannover 96	8.89	10.51	0.421	0.324	0.210	0.045	0.327	0.206	0.112	0.056	0.026	0.018
9	Esp	Athletic Bilbao	8.94	10.57	0.430	0.341	0.181	0.048	0.348	0.214	0.114	0.055	0.024	0.017
	Por	FC Porto							0.024	0.022	0.018	0.014	0.011	0.017
	Fra	Lille OSC							0.177	0.116	0.068	0.039	0.020	0.017
	Por	Benfica							0.090	0.060	0.040	0.027	0.016	0.016
8	Ita	Internazionale	10.35	12.24	0.560	0.348	0.084	0.008	0.429	0.251	0.129	0.060	0.024	0.016
	Ita	AC Milan							0.070	0.053	0.037	0.024	0.016	0.016
1	Eng	Liverpool	8.19	9.86	0.405	0.289	0.206	0.100	0.307	0.196	0.103	0.050	0.023	0.016
9	Fra	Olympique Lyon	8.70	10.49	0.418	0.343	0.187	0.052	0.357	0.209	0.108	0.051	0.022	0.015
	Rus	Zenit St. Petersburg							0.085	0.061	0.040	0.025	0.015	0.015
12	Esp	Levante UD	8.38	10.23	0.376	0.340	0.232	0.053	0.331	0.198	0.102	0.050	0.021	0.014
	Ger	Schalke 04							0.091	0.065	0.042	0.025	0.014	0.012
	Esp	Málaga CF							0.110	0.077	0.044	0.025	0.013	0.012
	Ukr	Dinamo Kiev							0.139	0.088	0.051	0.027	0.014	0.011
	Fra	Paris Saint-Germain							0.150	0.095	0.054	0.028	0.013	0.011
4	Fra	Girondins Bordeaux	7.12	9.12	0.308	0.311	0.234	0.147	0.302	0.166	0.084	0.040	0.016	0.011
10	Ita	Lazio Roma	7.72	9.88	0.281	0.413	0.252	0.054	0.353	0.184	0.090	0.041	0.016	0.009
7	Por	Sporting CP Lisbon	8.37	10.61	0.458	0.310	0.183	0.049	0.395	0.211	0.097	0.041	0.015	0.009
	Ned	Ajax							0.097	0.057	0.033	0.018	0.010	0.009
3	Fra	Olympique Marseille	7.11	9.36	0.301	0.322	0.271	0.106	0.316	0.168	0.081	0.036	0.014	0.008
6	Ned	PSV Eindhoven	7.45	9.67	0.330	0.346	0.233	0.091	0.349	0.181	0.085	0.038	0.014	0.008
	Gre	Olympiakos Piraeus							0.126	0.074	0.042	0.022	0.010	0.007
8	Rus	Rubin Kazan	8.79	11.29	0.390	0.465	0.131	0.015	0.475	0.225	0.097	0.038	0.014	0.007
1	Rus	Anzhi Makhachkala	6.40	8.82	0.270	0.295	0.275	0.161	0.300	0.150	0.069	0.029	0.010	0.006
	Eng	Manchester United							0.005	0.005	0.005	0.004	0.003	0.006
	Fra	Montpellier							0.133	0.077	0.039	0.019	0.008	0.006
1	Ita	Udinese	6.34	8.79	0.267	0.291	0.277	0.164	0.297	0.150	0.068	0.028	0.010	0.006
	Rus	Spartak Moscow							0.234	0.110	0.052	0.023	0.009	0.005
	Esp	FC Barcelona							0.000	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.005
7	Sui	FC Basel	7.20	9.85	0.341	0.343	0.240	0.076	0.392	0.179	0.072	0.028	0.009	0.004
3	Tur	Fenerbahçe	5.94	8.63	0.223	0.294	0.333	0.150	0.291	0.135	0.057	0.022	0.008	0.004
11	Ukr	Metalist Kharkiv	6.56	9.14	0.255	0.387	0.233	0.125	0.374	0.163	0.068	0.024	0.008	0.004
	Por	Sporting Braga							0.164	0.082	0.038	0.017	0.006	0.004
	Bel	Anderlecht							0.141	0.070	0.032	0.014	0.005	0.003
12	Ned	FC Twente Enschede	5.65	8.57	0.191	0.289	0.396	0.123	0.282	0.123	0.049	0.018	0.005	0.003
	Tur	Galatasaray							0.233	0.095	0.038	0.014	0.004	0.002
4	Bel	Club Brugge	4.46	7.33	0.144	0.229	0.308	0.319	0.227	0.094	0.035	0.012	0.003	0.002
2	Cze	Viktoria Plzen	5.45	8.30	0.095	0.488	0.280	0.137	0.384	0.132	0.047	0.015	0.004	0.001
6	Ukr	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	4.81	7.85	0.153	0.261	0.376	0.211	0.263	0.100	0.035	0.011	0.003	0.001
10	Gre	Panathinaikos	4.66	7.84	0.115	0.265	0.465	0.156	0.247	0.089	0.030	0.009	0.003	0.001
	Sco	Celtic							0.198	0.073	0.027	0.009	0.003	0.001
9	Cze	Sparta Praha	4.59	7.75	0.133	0.247	0.423	0.197	0.250	0.088	0.030	0.009	0.002	0.001
5	Den	FC København	5.18	8.24	0.174	0.347	0.286	0.193	0.355	0.115	0.037	0.011	0.002	0.001
7	Bel	Racing Genk	5.02	8.26	0.179	0.277	0.382	0.162	0.311	0.102	0.032	0.009	0.002	0.001
4	Por	Maritimo Funchal	3.47	6.45	0.094	0.178	0.284	0.444	0.183	0.061	0.020	0.005	0.001	0.000
	Cro	Dinamo Zagreb							0.146	0.048	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000
5	Rom	Steaua Bucuresti	3.97	7.18	0.105	0.264	0.331	0.300	0.276	0.071	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000
1	Sui	Young Boys	2.64	5.63	0.058	0.124	0.242	0.576	0.135	0.036	0.009	0.002	0.000	0.000
11	Aut	Rapid Wien	3.27	6.45	0.070	0.193	0.345	0.392	0.200	0.049	0.012	0.002	0.000	0.000
	Den	FC Nordsjælland							0.065	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
11	Nor	Rosenborg BK	2.94	6.08	0.057	0.169	0.324	0.450	0.175	0.040	0.009	0.002	0.000	0.000
	Rom	CFR Cluj							0.206	0.052	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000
2	Isr	Hapoel Tel-Aviv	3.23	6.39	0.032	0.256	0.393	0.319	0.222	0.051	0.012	0.002	0.000	0.000
8	Srb	Partizan Belgrade	3.29	6.84	0.047	0.164	0.610	0.179	0.175	0.030	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
	Bls	BATE Borisov							0.098	0.025	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000
6	Swe	AIK Stockholm	2.06	4.97	0.032	0.092	0.229	0.647	0.100	0.019	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
3	Cyp	AEL Limassol	1.95	4.81	0.030	0.082	0.206	0.682	0.090	0.018	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
9	Isr	Hapoel Kiryat Shmona	1.70	4.49	0.019	0.069	0.209	0.703	0.074	0.012	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
5	Nor	Molde FK	2.84	5.99	0.055	0.173	0.295	0.477	0.185	0.036	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000
2	Por	Académica Coimbra	2.09	5.06	0.013	0.141	0.306	0.540	0.131	0.019	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000
10	Slo	NK Maribor	1.27	3.85	0.009	0.044	0.174	0.774	0.046	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
12	Swe	Helsingborg IF	1.39	4.02	0.013	0.048	0.161	0.778	0.052	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
7	Hun	FC Fehérvár	1.72	4.54	0.022	0.070	0.196	0.712	0.081	0.010	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
8	Azb	Neftchi Baku	0.91	3.28	0.002	0.023	0.176	0.799	0.024	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

UEFA CL and EL 2012-13 Simulations Methodology

It has been a while since I last posted...
I've implemented a simulation program of all Champions League matches and draws.
The simulations are based on the wonderful ELO based rankings in the website: http://clubelo.com/
Many thanks for Lars, the owner of the site.
You can check out the site to know exactly how the rankings are made, but their basic is maximizing the prediction power of future games. There are many explanation and graphs there.
The number of home and away goals are assumed to be independent Random Poisson Variables with an expectancy of:
Goals for the Home team:
        if Proba < 0.5:
            Home Goals = 0.2 + 1.1*sqrt(Proba/0.5)
        else:
            Home Goals = 1.69 / (1.12*sqrt(2 -Proba/0.5)+0.18)

Goals for the Away team:
        if Proba < 0.8:
            Away goals = -0.96 + 1/(0.1+0.44*sqrt((Proba+

0.1)/0.9))
        else:
            Away goals = 0.72*sqrt((1 - Proba)/0.3)+0.3

"Proba" is the Winning Expectancy from the Elo Formula, ranging from 0 to 1.
Those values derived from Historical Data, and provided by Lars.
Of course the rankings are based mostly on last year, so take that into account if you want to use them for betting or any other purpose.

Ivanisevic Has Won The Most Points Of Any Other Player By Being Clutch

I took the ATP stats for 431 players from ATP Matchfacts site:
Then, for each player and surface I calculated the expected number of break points he should have won (separately for serving and returning) given the points he actually won.
Then I calculated how good was the player comparing to the number of break points he actually won.
Ivanisevic has won the most points by being clutch, followed by Sampras (though the difference between them isn't statistical significant).
Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is also high on the list.

Edit: I added columns for service and return separately.
As you can see, most players are doing worse than expected when serving and better when returning.
In total, the 431 players win 62.11% of their service points, and on break points they win only 60.09%. On return, those players win 38.97% of the points, and on break points they win 40.95%.

Here are the top 50:

Position	Name	Total Expected	Total Won	Total Played	Difference	service	return
1	Goran Ivanisevic	3229.39	3362	6402	132.61	-19.28	151.88
2	Pete Sampras	4171.30	4303	8373	131.70	-31.05	162.76
3	Thomas Muster	4290.19	4411	8326	120.81	1.60	119.21
4	Novak Djokovic	3347.59	3460	6530	112.41	-9.79	122.20
5	Alexander Volkov	2277.80	2372	4554	94.20	5.44	88.76
6	Fabrice Santoro	5990.05	6084	11930	93.95	-9.69	103.64
7	Thomas Johansson	3531.05	3624	7053	92.95	-54.97	147.93
8	Andreas Vinciguerra	1098.42	1188	2178	89.58	45.05	44.52
9	Marcos Ondruska	1805.77	1892	3627	86.23	13.64	72.58
10	Andre Agassi	5919.76	6000	11602	80.24	-29.61	109.85
11	Yevgeny Kafelnikov	5074.88	5155	10044	80.12	-54.13	134.25
12	Robin Soderling	2713.00	2786	5361	73.00	-66.65	139.65
13	Paul Haarhuis	2452.82	2521	4869	68.18	-28.49	96.67
14	Vincent Spadea	4747.47	4813	9382	65.53	-58.91	124.44
15	Jan-Michael Gambill	2060.23	2124	4026	63.77	-4.46	68.23
16	Rafael Nadal	4483.64	4543	8649	59.36	-43.29	102.65
17	Nicolas Kiefer	3912.44	3970	7758	57.56	-77.06	134.62
18	Jarkko Nieminen	3666.64	3723	7269	56.36	-30.08	86.45
19	Patrick McEnroe	1502.70	1557	2996	54.30	21.53	32.76
20	Michael Stich	2220.01	2274	4386	53.99	-3.03	57.02
21	Fernando Gonzalez	3382.66	3436	6715	53.34	-52.25	105.59
22	Nicolas Massu	3205.80	3258	6260	52.20	-16.70	68.90
23	Stefan Edberg	2806.85	2857	5503	50.15	-8.43	58.58
24	Filip Dewulf	1090.30	1138	2189	47.70	-5.53	53.23
25	Dmitry Tursunov	1803.44	1849	3579	45.56	-24.71	70.27
26	Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo	977.40	1022	1954	44.60	-16.51	61.11
27	Felix Mantilla	3896.81	3941	7643	44.19	-79.93	124.12
28	Jeff Tarango	3047.08	3090	6118	42.92	-30.85	73.77
29	Paul Goldstein	1357.29	1400	2723	42.71	8.58	34.14
30	Gilles Simon	2694.99	2737	5321	42.01	-28.44	70.45
31	Andrei Chesnokov	2123.89	2164	4246	40.11	-24.02	64.13
32	Fernando Verdasco	3616.24	3656	7113	39.76	-67.52	107.28
33	Viktor Troicki	1560.27	1600	3098	39.73	-22.44	62.17
34	Jonas Svensson	894.66	934	1781	39.34	19.61	19.72
35	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	1152.08	1191	2302	38.92	-24.84	63.77
36	Juan Martin Del Potro	1684.37	1723	3334	38.63	-34.70	73.33
37	Brad Gilbert	1325.95	1364	2618	38.05	-14.80	52.85
38	Florent Serra	1942.16	1980	3899	37.84	-8.25	46.09
39	Jared Palmer	681.11	718	1352	36.89	8.59	28.29
40	Jiri Vanek	1289.33	1325	2603	35.67	-6.44	42.11
41	Christian Bergstrom	778.04	812	1553	33.96	-11.11	45.07
42	Mikhail Youzhny	4081.19	4115	8118	33.81	-74.44	108.25
43	Olivier Rochus	3214.39	3248	6433	33.61	-45.54	79.16
44	James Blake	3754.47	3787	7429	32.53	-76.96	109.49
45	Tommy Haas	4353.88	4386	8673	32.12	-102.99	135.11
46	Greg Rusedski	3275.38	3307	6537	31.62	-41.95	73.58
47	Sergi Bruguera	3783.16	3814	7360	30.84	-80.74	111.58
48	Byron Black	2633.12	2663	5244	29.88	-48.49	78.37
49	Jim Courier	3289.29	3319	6482	29.71	-69.74	99.44
50	Flavio Saretta	712.34	742	1407	29.66	12.16	17.49

The bottom 10 has some interesting names too:

Position	Name	Total Expected	Total Won	Total Played	Difference	service	return
422	Arnaud Clement	4026.19	3960	8033	-66.19	-94.96	28.78
423	Thomas Enqvist	4258.08	4189	8464	-69.08	-138.72	69.63
424	Mariano Zabaleta	2923.55	2851	5844	-72.55	-68.75	-3.80
425	Christophe Rochus	2302.75	2228	4702	-74.75	-82.00	7.25
426	Albert Costa	4517.68	4439	8891	-78.68	-97.98	19.29
427	Gaston Gaudio	3524.96	3445	6919	-79.96	-81.67	1.71
428	Jonas Bjorkman	5192.75	5111	10281	-81.75	-87.52	5.76
429	Hyung-Taik Lee	1922.93	1837	3871	-85.93	-75.87	-10.07
430	Juan Carlos Ferrero	5142.41	5052	10027	-90.41	-59.09	-31.32
431	Karol Kucera	3241.60	3133	6427	-108.60	-151.01	42.41

If we look on percentage (normalized to have a confidence level of 99%, the top 10 are:

Name	Total Expected	Total Won	Total Played	Difference	Normalized
Rohan Bopanna	36.00	43	65	7.00	0.089
Arne Thoms	126.79	142	249	15.21	0.056
Jesse Levine	133.88	149	263	15.12	0.053
Andreas Vinciguerra	1098.42	1188	2178	89.58	0.041
Jimmy Wang	127.64	138	251	10.36	0.036
Juan Balcells	310.81	334	614	23.19	0.036
Alexander Popp	287.75	307	571	19.25	0.032
Oleg Ogorodov	232.04	247	467	14.96	0.029
Nuno Marques	376.04	399	768	22.96	0.028

NBA difference distribution

Hello,
here is NBA score difference distribution from 1993 to 2001 (9457 matches).
The Most interesting thing is the low percentage of -1 and 1 - that probably because of fouls when down a little towards the end of the match.
Also, the home teams wins more than 60% of the matches, which is quite a lot.

difference	matches
65	1
50	1
49	2
48	3
47	1
46	6
45	5
44	5
43	2
42	5
41	2
40	6
39	9
38	10
37	9
36	7
35	19
34	14
33	34
32	32
31	24
30	35
29	40
28	30
27	53
26	75
25	59
24	71
23	79
22	101
21	101
20	120
19	112
18	142
17	172
16	167
15	175
14	179
13	236
12	273
11	296
10	302
9	284
8	310
7	359
6	290
5	352
4	303
3	291
2	295
1	213
-1	195
-2	257
-3	246
-4	261
-5	259
-6	264
-7	244
-8	268
-9	234
-10	183
-11	170
-12	154
-13	122
-14	118
-15	119
-16	80
-17	65
-18	64
-19	65
-20	52
-21	56
-22	45
-23	23
-24	41
-25	24
-26	24
-27	20
-28	16
-29	13
-30	9
-31	10
-32	7
-33	9
-34	4
-35	2
-36	5
-37	3
-38	3
-39	1
-40	5
-44	2
-47	2
-48	1