After UEFA Nations League 2018 group stage is over, it's time to look forward to UEFA Euro 2020 main qualifying.
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
The biggest winner since the previous simulations is Norway, who managed not only to win its group, but also finish with the second best record of all Group C teams, and then guaranteed playing at home at the playoffs if it wont qualify directly.
The biggest loser is Iceland, who did not manage to make a surprise at both FIFA World Cup 2020 and UEFA Nations League 2018 GS., including some heavy defeats.
Here are the results for 100K simulations:
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
The biggest winner since the previous simulations is Norway, who managed not only to win its group, but also finish with the second best record of all Group C teams, and then guaranteed playing at home at the playoffs if it wont qualify directly.
The biggest loser is Iceland, who did not manage to make a surprise at both FIFA World Cup 2020 and UEFA Nations League 2018 GS., including some heavy defeats.
Here are the results for 100K simulations:
| Team | League | ELO | Points | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 | Rank 4-6 | Q-normal | Q-PO | PO-Final | PO-semis | Q_Total | Up/Down |
| Switzerland | A | 1922.00 | 20.29 | 65.6% | 25.6% | 7.4% | 1.4% | 91.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 95.8% | 5.1% |
| Portugal | A | 1959.00 | 20.93 | 72.1% | 21.8% | 5.3% | 0.8% | 93.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 97.4% | -1.2% |
| Netherlands | A | 1985.00 | 21.39 | 76.3% | 19.2% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 95.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 98.2% | 6.7% |
| England | A | 1960.00 | 20.96 | 72.5% | 21.6% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 94.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 97.4% | 1.6% |
| Belgium | A | 2036.00 | 22.19 | 83.4% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 97.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 99.2% | 3.2% |
| France | A | 2094.00 | 23.00 | 89.2% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 98.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 99.7% | 1.7% |
| Spain | A | 2012.00 | 21.85 | 80.4% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 96.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 98.8% | -0.4% |
| Italy | A | 1889.00 | 19.70 | 59.3% | 28.6% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 88.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 93.7% | -2.6% |
| Croatia | A | 1925.00 | 20.36 | 66.3% | 25.2% | 7.2% | 1.3% | 91.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 95.8% | 6.5% |
| Poland | A | 1752.00 | 16.93 | 31.4% | 34.3% | 23.4% | 11.0% | 65.6% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 76.2% | -13.2% |
| Germany | A | 1938.00 | 19.74 | 44.7% | 44.4% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 89.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 94.9% | -4.9% |
| Iceland | A | 1668.00 | 14.33 | 6.6% | 33.9% | 34.9% | 24.6% | 40.5% | 12.0% | 18.9% | 28.3% | 52.6% | -35.4% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1795.00 | 17.02 | 20.1% | 47.9% | 24.1% | 8.0% | 68.0% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 80.2% | 19.0% |
| Ukraine | B | 1772.00 | 16.53 | 17.0% | 46.3% | 26.6% | 10.1% | 63.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 75.9% | 14.2% |
| Denmark | B | 1898.00 | 19.01 | 37.3% | 47.2% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 84.5% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 92.0% | 14.9% |
| Sweden | B | 1852.00 | 18.13 | 29.1% | 48.9% | 17.8% | 4.3% | 78.0% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 87.0% | 11.7% |
| Russia | B | 1753.00 | 16.16 | 14.7% | 44.6% | 28.6% | 12.2% | 59.3% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 16.8% | 71.0% | 17.0% |
| Austria | B | 1765.00 | 16.39 | 16.1% | 45.7% | 27.3% | 10.9% | 61.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 16.5% | 72.8% | 18.9% |
| Wales | B | 1760.00 | 16.29 | 15.6% | 45.3% | 27.6% | 11.5% | 60.9% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 71.4% | -0.1% |
| Czech Republic | B | 1729.00 | 15.63 | 11.8% | 42.3% | 30.8% | 15.1% | 54.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 23.6% | 64.6% | 15.6% |
| Slovakia | B | 1748.00 | 15.45 | 11.3% | 32.1% | 40.5% | 16.1% | 43.4% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 28.4% | 57.2% | -9.8% |
| Turkey | B | 1691.00 | 14.24 | 6.4% | 25.0% | 43.7% | 24.8% | 31.4% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 41.5% | 43.0% | -21.3% |
| Republic of Ireland | B | 1705.00 | 14.53 | 7.5% | 26.9% | 42.9% | 22.6% | 34.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 40.2% | 44.8% | -26.2% |
| Northern Ireland | B | 1623.00 | 12.83 | 3.0% | 16.7% | 42.8% | 37.4% | 19.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 51.3% | 26.9% | -20.6% |
| Scotland | C | 1721.00 | 14.88 | 8.9% | 28.8% | 42.2% | 20.2% | 37.7% | 23.5% | 21.0% | 17.8% | 61.2% | 5.9% |
| Norway | C | 1679.00 | 14.01 | 5.6% | 23.7% | 44.0% | 26.8% | 29.2% | 21.8% | 22.6% | 26.4% | 51.0% | 28.2% |
| Serbia | C | 1807.00 | 16.67 | 18.7% | 37.7% | 34.2% | 9.4% | 56.4% | 18.4% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 74.9% | 12.4% |
| Finland | C | 1622.00 | 12.80 | 2.9% | 16.7% | 42.7% | 37.7% | 19.6% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 47.2% | 33.9% | 14.0% |
| Bulgaria | C | 1629.00 | 12.94 | 3.3% | 17.5% | 42.9% | 36.4% | 20.7% | 12.8% | 17.1% | 48.8% | 33.6% | 9.0% |
| Israel | C | 1561.00 | 11.55 | 1.3% | 10.4% | 37.9% | 50.4% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 60.7% | 19.8% | 8.2% |
| Hungary | C | 1611.00 | 11.87 | 2.3% | 12.1% | 28.6% | 57.0% | 14.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 46.4% | 22.4% | -3.9% |
| Romania | C | 1753.00 | 14.79 | 10.9% | 28.0% | 33.6% | 27.5% | 38.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 18.2% | 46.2% | 1.1% |
| Greece | C | 1613.00 | 11.93 | 2.4% | 12.2% | 28.9% | 56.5% | 14.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 15.0% | -23.6% |
| Albania | C | 1515.00 | 9.89 | 0.5% | 4.6% | 18.5% | 76.4% | 5.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 5.2% | -16.9% |
| Montenegro | C | 1589.00 | 11.41 | 1.6% | 9.8% | 26.8% | 61.7% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.5% | -12.9% |
| Cyprus | C | 1415.00 | 8.00 | 0.1% | 1.2% | 8.8% | 89.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.0% |
| Estonia | C | 1468.00 | 8.96 | 0.2% | 2.6% | 13.3% | 83.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | -3.7% |
| Slovenia | C | 1561.00 | 10.84 | 1.2% | 7.7% | 23.7% | 67.5% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.8% | -23.3% |
| Lithuania | C | 1337.00 | 6.68 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 4.2% | 95.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | -1.5% |
| Georgia | D | 1547.00 | 10.56 | 0.9% | 6.6% | 22.2% | 70.3% | 7.5% | 32.1% | 28.0% | 32.4% | 39.6% | 19.3% |
| Macedonia | D | 1519.00 | 9.13 | 0.5% | 4.2% | 14.9% | 80.4% | 4.7% | 29.8% | 32.1% | 33.4% | 34.5% | 9.1% |
| Kosovo | D | 1496.00 | 8.68 | 0.4% | 3.2% | 12.7% | 83.7% | 3.6% | 17.1% | 20.2% | 59.2% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| Belarus | D | 1539.00 | 9.52 | 0.7% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 77.0% | 6.0% | 19.4% | 16.6% | 58.1% | 25.3% | -1.0% |
| Luxembourg | D | 1348.00 | 6.03 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 96.6% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 15.9% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| Armenia | D | 1449.00 | 7.78 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 89.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | -11.4% |
| Azerbaijan | D | 1403.00 | 6.95 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 5.5% | 93.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | -10.1% |
| Kazakhstan | D | 1330.00 | 5.73 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 97.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| Moldova | D | 1326.00 | 5.70 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 97.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | -2.8% |
| Gibraltar | D | 1103.00 | 3.06 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Faroe Islands | D | 1255.00 | 4.70 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 99.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -1.7% |
| Latvia | D | 1298.00 | 5.76 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 98.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -6.0% |
| Liechtenstein | D | 1138.00 | 3.49 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| Andorra | D | 1081.00 | 2.88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malta | D | 1178.00 | 3.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% |
| San Marino | D | 836.00 | 1.32 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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