יום ראשון, 2 בדצמבר 2018

UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying Simulations - Draw Impact

As always, the group stage draw has winners and losers.
Clearly the group of life is group G, where all teams raised there chances of qualifying
Turkey is also a winner, and it actually the second highest ranked team in its group according to ELO (although Iceland still has higher chances of qualifying including the playoffs).
Northern Ireland decreased their chances the most by drawing Germany from Pot 2.
Group F is the group of death, with 4 teams capable of qualifying and all teams lowering their chances of qualifying.

The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.

Summary by group:

Group Difference
A 12.56%
B -9.48%
C -15.12%
D -11.83%
E -8.50%
F -28.87%
G 35.85%
H 19.78%
I 1.64%
J 3.97%

Here are the results for 100K simulations:

Team Group ELO Points Q-normal Q-PO Q_Total Before_Draw Difference
Turkey H 1691 17.55 50.19% 8.09% 58.27% 42.96% 15.31%
Austria G 1765 19.67 79.68% 5.67% 85.35% 72.77% 12.57%
Slovenia G 1561 13.37 16.74% 0.00% 16.74% 8.84% 7.90%
Poland G 1752 19.31 76.68% 6.96% 83.63% 76.24% 7.40%
Montenegro A 1589 8.75 16.48% 0.01% 16.49% 11.49% 5.00%
Israel G 1561 13.37 16.69% 7.69% 24.38% 19.80% 4.59%
Scotland I 1721 18.71 43.91% 21.27% 65.18% 61.17% 4.00%
Albania H 1515 13.00 8.70% 0.04% 8.74% 5.18% 3.56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina J 1795 19.80 74.05% 9.54% 83.58% 80.19% 3.40%
Macedonia G 1519 12.05 9.97% 27.74% 37.72% 34.48% 3.23%
Bulgaria A 1629 9.70 24.04% 12.19% 36.23% 33.57% 2.66%
Serbia B 1807 15.11 60.75% 16.28% 77.03% 74.86% 2.17%
Germany C 1938 16.95 93.95% 3.02% 96.98% 94.88% 2.09%
Kosovo A 1496 6.56 5.70% 16.99% 22.69% 20.65% 2.04%
Czech Republic A 1729 12.30 56.82% 9.47% 66.29% 64.64% 1.65%
Slovakia E 1748 12.59 46.08% 12.66% 58.74% 57.21% 1.53%
Greece J 1613 14.64 16.05% 0.36% 16.42% 15.02% 1.40%
Italy J 1889 22.33 90.82% 4.22% 95.04% 93.74% 1.30%
England A 1960 18.39 96.97% 1.66% 98.62% 97.41% 1.21%
Iceland H 1668 16.93 41.01% 12.02% 53.02% 52.56% 0.46%
Netherlands C 1985 17.99 96.71% 1.91% 98.62% 98.20% 0.41%
Moldova H 1326 8.11 0.47% 0.00% 0.47% 0.23% 0.24%
France H 2094 26.71 99.64% 0.24% 99.88% 99.67% 0.21%
Latvia G 1298 5.74 0.25% 0.00% 0.25% 0.08% 0.16%
Belgium I 2036 25.67 97.95% 1.32% 99.27% 99.18% 0.09%
Kazakhstan I 1330 9.41 0.29% 0.00% 0.29% 0.24% 0.04%
San Marino I 836 1.44 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gibraltar D 1103 1.49 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Andorra H 1081 3.14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Liechtenstein J 1138 2.95 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Malta F 1178 3.80 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% -0.01%
Faroe Islands F 1255 5.07 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% -0.06%
Cyprus I 1415 11.23 1.16% 0.00% 1.16% 1.30% -0.14%
Luxembourg B 1348 4.58 0.16% 1.47% 1.63% 1.84% -0.20%
Lithuania B 1337 4.38 0.15% 0.00% 0.15% 0.39% -0.25%
Azerbaijan E 1403 4.23 0.61% 0.01% 0.62% 0.90% -0.28%
Armenia J 1449 9.96 1.59% 0.23% 1.82% 2.19% -0.37%
Denmark D 1898 16.72 83.33% 7.84% 91.17% 91.97% -0.80%
Croatia E 1925 17.03 89.50% 5.44% 94.94% 95.85% -0.90%
Hungary E 1611 9.11 13.06% 7.94% 21.00% 22.41% -1.41%
Portugal B 1959 18.25 90.25% 5.52% 95.77% 97.36% -1.59%
Spain F 2012 23.66 92.41% 4.80% 97.21% 98.81% -1.60%
Georgia D 1547 8.94 4.33% 33.63% 37.95% 39.59% -1.64%
Finland J 1622 14.89 17.49% 14.61% 32.10% 33.86% -1.75%
Switzerland D 1922 17.23 87.04% 6.85% 93.89% 95.82% -1.94%
Estonia C 1468 5.51 0.76% 0.00% 0.76% 2.85% -2.10%
Russia I 1753 19.51 56.70% 11.93% 68.63% 70.99% -2.36%
Belarus C 1539 6.97 2.14% 19.93% 22.07% 25.33% -3.26%
Wales E 1760 12.91 50.74% 13.22% 63.96% 71.39% -7.43%
Republic of Ireland D 1705 12.43 25.30% 12.05% 37.36% 44.82% -7.46%
Sweden F 1852 19.86 63.28% 15.06% 78.34% 87.01% -8.67%
Romania F 1753 17.44 30.08% 7.31% 37.39% 46.17% -8.78%
Ukraine B 1772 14.34 48.69% 17.55% 66.24% 75.85% -9.61%
Norway F 1679 15.52 14.22% 27.07% 41.29% 51.04% -9.75%
Northern Ireland C 1623 8.87 6.44% 8.22% 14.66% 26.93% -12.27%

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