יום רביעי, 19 באוקטובר 2011

Ivanisevic Has Won The Most Points Of Any Other Player By Being Clutch

I took the ATP stats for 431 players from ATP Matchfacts site:
Then, for each player and surface I calculated the expected number of break points he should have won (separately for serving and returning) given the points he actually won.
Then I calculated how good was the player comparing to the number of break points he actually won.
Ivanisevic has won the most points by being clutch, followed by Sampras (though the difference between them isn't statistical significant).
Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is also high on the list.

Edit: I added columns for service and return separately.
As you can see, most players are doing worse than expected when serving and better when returning.
In total, the 431 players win 62.11% of their service points, and on break points they win only 60.09%. On return, those players win 38.97% of the points, and on break points they win 40.95%.

Here are the top 50:


Position Name Total Expected Total Won Total Played Difference service return
1 Goran Ivanisevic 3229.39 3362 6402 132.61 -19.28 151.88
2 Pete Sampras 4171.30 4303 8373 131.70 -31.05 162.76
3 Thomas Muster 4290.19 4411 8326 120.81 1.60 119.21
4 Novak Djokovic 3347.59 3460 6530 112.41 -9.79 122.20
5 Alexander Volkov 2277.80 2372 4554 94.20 5.44 88.76
6 Fabrice Santoro 5990.05 6084 11930 93.95 -9.69 103.64
7 Thomas Johansson 3531.05 3624 7053 92.95 -54.97 147.93
8 Andreas Vinciguerra 1098.42 1188 2178 89.58 45.05 44.52
9 Marcos Ondruska 1805.77 1892 3627 86.23 13.64 72.58
10 Andre Agassi 5919.76 6000 11602 80.24 -29.61 109.85
11 Yevgeny Kafelnikov 5074.88 5155 10044 80.12 -54.13 134.25
12 Robin Soderling 2713.00 2786 5361 73.00 -66.65 139.65
13 Paul Haarhuis 2452.82 2521 4869 68.18 -28.49 96.67
14 Vincent Spadea 4747.47 4813 9382 65.53 -58.91 124.44
15 Jan-Michael Gambill 2060.23 2124 4026 63.77 -4.46 68.23
16 Rafael Nadal 4483.64 4543 8649 59.36 -43.29 102.65
17 Nicolas Kiefer 3912.44 3970 7758 57.56 -77.06 134.62
18 Jarkko Nieminen 3666.64 3723 7269 56.36 -30.08 86.45
19 Patrick McEnroe 1502.70 1557 2996 54.30 21.53 32.76
20 Michael Stich 2220.01 2274 4386 53.99 -3.03 57.02
21 Fernando Gonzalez 3382.66 3436 6715 53.34 -52.25 105.59
22 Nicolas Massu 3205.80 3258 6260 52.20 -16.70 68.90
23 Stefan Edberg 2806.85 2857 5503 50.15 -8.43 58.58
24 Filip Dewulf 1090.30 1138 2189 47.70 -5.53 53.23
25 Dmitry Tursunov 1803.44 1849 3579 45.56 -24.71 70.27
26 Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 977.40 1022 1954 44.60 -16.51 61.11
27 Felix Mantilla 3896.81 3941 7643 44.19 -79.93 124.12
28 Jeff Tarango 3047.08 3090 6118 42.92 -30.85 73.77
29 Paul Goldstein 1357.29 1400 2723 42.71 8.58 34.14
30 Gilles Simon 2694.99 2737 5321 42.01 -28.44 70.45
31 Andrei Chesnokov 2123.89 2164 4246 40.11 -24.02 64.13
32 Fernando Verdasco 3616.24 3656 7113 39.76 -67.52 107.28
33 Viktor Troicki 1560.27 1600 3098 39.73 -22.44 62.17
34 Jonas Svensson 894.66 934 1781 39.34 19.61 19.72
35 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1152.08 1191 2302 38.92 -24.84 63.77
36 Juan Martin Del Potro 1684.37 1723 3334 38.63 -34.70 73.33
37 Brad Gilbert 1325.95 1364 2618 38.05 -14.80 52.85
38 Florent Serra 1942.16 1980 3899 37.84 -8.25 46.09
39 Jared Palmer 681.11 718 1352 36.89 8.59 28.29
40 Jiri Vanek 1289.33 1325 2603 35.67 -6.44 42.11
41 Christian Bergstrom 778.04 812 1553 33.96 -11.11 45.07
42 Mikhail Youzhny 4081.19 4115 8118 33.81 -74.44 108.25
43 Olivier Rochus 3214.39 3248 6433 33.61 -45.54 79.16
44 James Blake 3754.47 3787 7429 32.53 -76.96 109.49
45 Tommy Haas 4353.88 4386 8673 32.12 -102.99 135.11
46 Greg Rusedski 3275.38 3307 6537 31.62 -41.95 73.58
47 Sergi Bruguera 3783.16 3814 7360 30.84 -80.74 111.58
48 Byron Black 2633.12 2663 5244 29.88 -48.49 78.37
49 Jim Courier 3289.29 3319 6482 29.71 -69.74 99.44
50 Flavio Saretta 712.34 742 1407 29.66 12.16 17.49

The bottom 10 has some interesting names too:


Position Name Total Expected Total Won Total Played Difference service return
422 Arnaud Clement 4026.19 3960 8033 -66.19 -94.96 28.78
423 Thomas Enqvist 4258.08 4189 8464 -69.08 -138.72 69.63
424 Mariano Zabaleta 2923.55 2851 5844 -72.55 -68.75 -3.80
425 Christophe Rochus 2302.75 2228 4702 -74.75 -82.00 7.25
426 Albert Costa 4517.68 4439 8891 -78.68 -97.98 19.29
427 Gaston Gaudio 3524.96 3445 6919 -79.96 -81.67 1.71
428 Jonas Bjorkman 5192.75 5111 10281 -81.75 -87.52 5.76
429 Hyung-Taik Lee 1922.93 1837 3871 -85.93 -75.87 -10.07
430 Juan Carlos Ferrero 5142.41 5052 10027 -90.41 -59.09 -31.32
431 Karol Kucera 3241.60 3133 6427 -108.60 -151.01 42.41


If we look on percentage (normalized to have a confidence level of 99%, the top 10 are:



Name Total Expected Total Won Total Played Difference Normalized
Rohan Bopanna 36.00 43 65 7.00 0.089
Arne Thoms 126.79 142 249 15.21 0.056
Jesse Levine 133.88 149 263 15.12 0.053
Andreas Vinciguerra 1098.42 1188 2178 89.58 0.041
Jimmy Wang 127.64 138 251 10.36 0.036
Juan Balcells 310.81 334 614 23.19 0.036
Alexander Popp 287.75 307 571 19.25 0.032
Oleg Ogorodov 232.04 247 467 14.96 0.029
Nuno Marques 376.04 399 768 22.96 0.028