יום ראשון, 10 באוקטובר 2010

10.10.10 Update

Group Team Qualifing Coefficients Points 1st Best RU PO Winner PO loser
1 Germany 99.45% 39444.96 26.50467 93.17% 4.05% 2.24% 0.35%
1 Turkey 61.15% 29231.46 20.80083 6.50% 16.01% 38.64% 25.76%
1 Austria 2.41% 24187.37 14.48966 0.29% 0.57% 1.56% 6.18%
1 Belgium 1.01% 21870.75 13.68264 0.04% 0.05% 0.92% 3.65%
1 Kazakhstan 0.00% 14710.53 4.26622 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Azerbaijan 0.00% 14618.22 6.21185 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03%
2 Russia 75.19% 32506.6 21.0524 54.00% 2.14% 19.05% 9.25%
2 Slovakia 49.92% 28828.55 19.68266 30.54% 7.90% 11.47% 17.82%
2 Republic of Ireland 24.40% 26750.83 17.91824 13.67% 1.26% 9.47% 15.70%
2 FYR Macedonia 3.12% 21141.92 13.664 1.71% 0.30% 1.11% 3.98%
2 Armenia 0.14% 17068.1 11.09984 0.08% 0.03% 0.03% 0.49%
2 Andorra 0.00% 9015.115 1.42283 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Italy 87.95% 32739.05 21.35661 75.50% 0.63% 11.83% 4.43%
3 Serbia 36.41% 28908.87 16.67023 13.14% 2.95% 20.33% 12.38%
3 Northern Ireland 12.67% 25590.36 15.77575 6.15% 0.92% 5.60% 18.82%
3 Slovenia 10.91% 25833.64 14.67628 4.83% 0.54% 5.54% 12.42%
3 Estonia 0.76% 18501 11.6953 0.39% 0.07% 0.31% 3.26%
3 Faroe Islands 0.00% 11653.22 2.86263 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 France 89.21% 30925.73 21.24166 76.89% 1.82% 10.49% 4.15%
4 Romania 30.28% 26022.6 16.53484 11.54% 1.92% 16.82% 18.21%
4 Bosnia and Herzegovina 9.64% 24805.63 14.61519 4.28% 0.23% 5.14% 14.54%
4 Belarus 13.16% 23457.22 15.39478 6.33% 2.47% 4.36% 15.41%
4 Albania 1.69% 19139.84 11.98373 0.97% 0.10% 0.62% 3.71%
4 Luxembourg 0.00% 12380.96 2.29829 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Netherlands 98.08% 40819.16 25.37415 83.89% 4.40% 9.80% 1.35%
5 Sweden 70.53% 30504.95 20.95582 15.74% 13.61% 41.18% 18.48%
5 Finland 1.55% 26008.94 13.24803 0.08% 0.38% 1.09% 2.51%
5 Hungary 1.77% 24214.02 14.51445 0.29% 0.14% 1.34% 4.97%
5 Moldova 0.08% 17480.24 11.54814 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.69%
5 San Marino 0.00% 7932.174 0.52662 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Croatia 95.40% 33379.27 23.25244 86.44% 2.21% 6.76% 2.80%
6 Greece 43.61% 29966.42 17.93773 9.88% 7.98% 25.75% 18.81%
6 Israel 14.42% 26739.32 15.63596 3.12% 1.44% 9.87% 15.81%
6 Latvia 1.58% 23835.94 12.69435 0.38% 0.03% 1.17% 5.30%
6 Georgia 0.37% 16911.11 11.08981 0.18% 0.04% 0.15% 1.91%
6 Malta 0.00% 11105.96 2.40775 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 England 98.26% 34798.18 19.16602 93.96% 1.25% 3.05% 0.78%
7 Switzerland 12.45% 26984.81 9.47836 0.78% 0.36% 11.32% 8.87%
7 Bulgaria 8.81% 24725.7 9.87251 0.88% 0.29% 7.64% 13.90%
7 Wales 0.57% 19892.37 5.63327 0.07% 0.07% 0.43% 1.72%
7 Montenegro 14.58% 21583.2 12.53185 4.32% 2.53% 7.74% 40.05%
8 Portugal 60.31% 31199.25 14.66546 23.41% 10.76% 26.13% 6.26%
8 Denmark 37.68% 28641.52 13.97547 19.76% 3.01% 14.92% 9.92%
8 Norway 72.30% 27419.06 17.11014 56.76% 4.17% 11.37% 12.79%
8 Cyprus 0.10% 18460.49 5.63941 0.05% 0.01% 0.04% 0.40%
8 Iceland 0.05% 15699.46 4.71622 0.02% 0.00% 0.03% 0.19%
9 Spain 98.98% 42653.89 19.98435 94.27% 0.45% 4.26% 0.40%
9 Czech Republic 50.11% 28652.62 13.36342 4.83% 2.57% 42.70% 17.79%
9 Scotland 5.04% 23970.18 10.2374 0.46% 0.09% 4.50% 10.29%
9 Lithuania 3.91% 22581.07 10.62106 0.44% 0.28% 3.19% 13.48%
9 Liechtenstein 0.00% 11881.97 1.99649 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%

Main tournament:


Team GS Quarter Semi Finalist Champion
Spain 15.85% 19.42% 15.31% 12.16% 36.25%
Netherlands 22.02% 27.96% 20.50% 12.88% 14.73%
Germany 25.50% 29.40% 20.08% 12.60% 11.87%
England 30.44% 30.43% 18.63% 10.35% 8.40%
Ukraine 54.51% 22.97% 12.47% 5.68% 4.38%
Portugal 22.16% 18.33% 10.17% 5.52% 4.12%
Italy 39.52% 26.56% 12.73% 5.72% 3.43%
France 42.87% 25.45% 12.23% 5.48% 3.18%
Croatia 46.37% 28.47% 12.59% 5.30% 2.68%
Sweden 36.90% 19.61% 8.52% 3.67% 1.82%
Poland 65.54% 20.64% 8.83% 3.33% 1.67%
Russia 40.10% 21.24% 8.81% 3.44% 1.59%
Czech Republic 26.69% 13.33% 6.08% 2.60% 1.40%
Turkey 36.37% 15.38% 6.06% 2.34% 1.00%
Norway 48.22% 15.85% 5.59% 1.87% 0.77%
Denmark 21.54% 9.75% 4.09% 1.56% 0.75%
Serbia 20.82% 9.47% 3.90% 1.48% 0.74%
Greece 29.69% 9.53% 3.06% 0.99% 0.35%
Romania 19.75% 6.94% 2.44% 0.84% 0.31%
Slovakia 38.37% 8.51% 2.33% 0.57% 0.14%
Switzerland 8.19% 2.71% 1.05% 0.37% 0.14%
Republic of Ireland 17.91% 4.51% 1.40% 0.44% 0.13%
Israel 10.98% 2.50% 0.69% 0.20% 0.05%
Bulgaria 6.75% 1.48% 0.43% 0.12% 0.04%
Slovenia 8.43% 1.77% 0.50% 0.18% 0.03%
Northern Ireland 10.95% 1.37% 0.27% 0.06% 0.02%
Scotland 4.06% 0.73% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 8.01% 1.28% 0.27% 0.07% 0.01%
Belarus 11.30% 1.51% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
Finland 1.29% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
Montenegro 13.17% 1.20% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
Hungary 1.55% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Austria 2.16% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
Belgium 0.89% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Albania 1.54% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
FYR Macedonia 2.70% 0.33% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
Lithuania 3.51% 0.34% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
Latvia 1.44% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Wales 0.49% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Estonia 0.72% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Iceland 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Georgia 0.36% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Armenia 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cyprus 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Moldova 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Azerbaijan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kazakhstan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Andorra 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Faroe Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Luxembourg 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Malta 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%



יום שני, 4 באוקטובר 2010

UEFA EURO 2012 updated


Here is an update after the game that were played so far.:


Group Team Qualifing Coefficients Points 1st Best RU PO Winner PO loser
1 Germany 98.44% 39248.75 25.80343 85.11% 6.98% 6.35% 1.13%
1 Turkey 66.58% 29426.43 21.33608 14.54% 19.40% 32.64% 24.68%
1 Austria 1.91% 23929.36 13.87962 0.31% 0.53% 1.07% 4.62%
1 Belgium 0.55% 21381.17 12.48784 0.05% 0.04% 0.47% 2.03%
1 Kazakhstan 0.00% 15105.49 5.18596 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Azerbaijan 0.01% 14827.44 6.65723 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06%
2 Russia 48.12% 31789.28 19.30573 24.12% 2.53% 21.48% 11.32%
2 Slovakia 65.50% 29489.82 21.61215 52.00% 4.17% 9.33% 16.36%
2 Republic of Ireland 35.56% 27255.99 19.35627 22.96% 2.58% 10.02% 17.75%
2 FYR Macedonia 2.05% 20965.11 13.20926 0.91% 0.40% 0.74% 3.15%
2 Armenia 0.03% 16140.1 8.90988 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16%
2 Andorra 0.00% 9141.26 1.7243 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Italy 84.64% 32970.41 22.10373 66.36% 1.77% 16.51% 6.35%
3 Serbia 56.03% 29978.36 19.29136 26.33% 3.29% 26.42% 17.37%
3 Northern Ireland 9.82% 25612.81 15.73195 4.93% 1.39% 3.50% 12.38%
3 Slovenia 5.87% 25741.68 14.4363 2.36% 0.34% 3.17% 7.06%
3 Estonia 0.08% 17351.38 8.94379 0.03% 0.01% 0.04% 0.41%
3 Faroe Islands 0.00% 11741.61 3.01161 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 France 74.70% 30475.85 20.17365 57.34% 1.85% 15.51% 6.75%
4 Romania 35.47% 26338.91 17.32178 20.57% 2.62% 12.28% 14.20%
4 Bosnia and Herzegovina 11.15% 24960.86 15.01844 6.85% 0.27% 4.03% 12.14%
4 Belarus 20.40% 23973.59 16.83284 13.62% 1.64% 5.14% 18.89%
4 Albania 2.41% 19282.31 12.36118 1.62% 0.15% 0.65% 3.90%
4 Luxembourg 0.00% 12090.96 1.65424 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Netherlands 97.24% 40690.68 24.82912 80.81% 4.94% 11.48% 1.73%
5 Sweden 70.33% 30491.31 20.96268 18.63% 12.80% 38.91% 19.11%
5 Finland 1.55% 26010.82 13.26194 0.14% 0.37% 1.05% 2.77%
5 Hungary 1.68% 24122.48 14.46484 0.39% 0.15% 1.13% 4.46%
5 Moldova 0.16% 17613.28 11.91882 0.04% 0.03% 0.09% 0.98%
5 San Marino 0.00% 8014.92 0.54381 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Croatia 86.80% 32838.77 21.61265 72.11% 1.85% 12.84% 5.84%
6 Greece 35.66% 29658.05 17.15673 12.86% 5.28% 17.53% 14.04%
6 Israel 26.48% 27235.73 17.0134 13.35% 2.65% 10.48% 19.10%
6 Latvia 2.99% 24031.01 13.25461 1.43% 0.08% 1.48% 7.06%
6 Georgia 0.42% 16723.82 10.57527 0.24% 0.04% 0.14% 1.59%
6 Malta 0.00% 11244.19 2.79099 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 England 98.52% 34841.25 19.18923 94.48% 1.18% 2.87% 0.71%
7 Switzerland 28.12% 27867.74 11.07634 2.86% 2.63% 22.63% 19.43%
7 Bulgaria 5.08% 23858.46 8.1453 0.39% 0.31% 4.38% 8.70%
7 Wales 2.21% 20609.07 7.06778 0.32% 0.20% 1.69% 6.12%
7 Montenegro 7.21% 20605.23 10.62739 1.96% 1.02% 4.23% 23.90%
8 Portugal 50.41% 30630.09 13.71186 21.20% 5.85% 23.36% 6.05%
8 Denmark 50.60% 29003.14 14.66327 32.63% 3.32% 14.65% 11.77%
8 Norway 62.86% 26929.42 15.94794 45.81% 4.10% 12.95% 16.14%
8 Cyprus 0.50% 18915.58 6.55764 0.33% 0.03% 0.15% 1.33%
8 Iceland 0.08% 15703.54 4.72685 0.04% 0.01% 0.03% 0.27%
9 Spain 98.50% 42597.97 19.73499 93.49% 0.42% 4.59% 0.54%
9 Czech Republic 40.69% 28174.59 12.58672 4.51% 2.06% 34.12% 16.18%
9 Scotland 7.89% 24188.92 10.79153 1.13% 0.36% 6.40% 16.11%
9 Lithuania 4.72% 22630.22 10.77827 0.87% 0.36% 3.48% 15.37%
9 Liechtenstein 0.00% 11888.52 2.00947 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%

 
Slovakia seem to gain some ground on the expense of Russia.

And the main tournament:



Team GS Quarter Semi Finalist Champion
Spain 15.01% 19.53% 15.25% 12.11% 36.60%
Netherlands 21.39% 27.61% 20.47% 12.98% 14.79%
Germany 24.41% 29.21% 20.31% 12.64% 11.87%
England 29.53% 30.72% 18.98% 10.72% 8.58%
Ukraine 53.24% 23.56% 12.71% 5.97% 4.53%
Portugal 18.40% 15.10% 8.76% 4.68% 3.48%
Italy 36.75% 26.05% 12.80% 5.72% 3.32%
France 35.87% 21.24% 10.26% 4.63% 2.71%
Croatia 41.76% 26.10% 11.57% 4.92% 2.45%
Sweden 36.71% 19.33% 8.63% 3.71% 1.96%
Poland 64.68% 21.15% 8.99% 3.38% 1.80%
Serbia 31.16% 14.93% 6.27% 2.44% 1.23%
Czech Republic 21.41% 11.05% 4.97% 2.11% 1.16%
Turkey 38.91% 17.00% 6.87% 2.68% 1.12%
Russia 25.43% 13.65% 5.74% 2.24% 1.06%
Denmark 28.44% 13.52% 5.48% 2.21% 0.95%
Norway 41.07% 14.25% 5.08% 1.74% 0.72%
Romania 22.88% 7.98% 3.10% 1.10% 0.40%
Switzerland 18.05% 6.63% 2.32% 0.81% 0.31%
Greece 23.97% 7.92% 2.65% 0.86% 0.28%
Republic of Ireland 25.84% 6.78% 2.07% 0.62% 0.24%
Slovakia 49.82% 11.58% 3.06% 0.83% 0.22%
Israel 19.94% 4.68% 1.41% 0.35% 0.11%
Scotland 6.30% 1.20% 0.30% 0.07% 0.02%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 9.29% 1.42% 0.34% 0.07% 0.02%
Bulgaria 3.90% 0.84% 0.24% 0.08% 0.02%
Slovenia 4.53% 0.98% 0.27% 0.08% 0.02%
Belarus 17.48% 2.34% 0.47% 0.09% 0.01%
Northern Ireland 8.42% 1.11% 0.21% 0.06% 0.01%
Lithuania 4.19% 0.44% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
Wales 1.87% 0.27% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%
Montenegro 6.52% 0.59% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
FYR Macedonia 1.80% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Hungary 1.46% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Austria 1.69% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Finland 1.29% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
Latvia 2.68% 0.27% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Albania 2.21% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Belgium 0.49% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Cyprus 0.48% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Georgia 0.40% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Moldova 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Estonia 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Iceland 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Armenia 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Azerbaijan 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kazakhstan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Andorra 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Faroe Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Luxembourg 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Malta 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

יום שני, 13 בספטמבר 2010

Champions League 2010-11


Well, I must admit that this set of simulations is probably less accurate that the EURO one...
The ranking used for simulations is a manipulation of UEFA coefficients (weighted average of the last 5 years, with weights (1,2,3,4,5)).
The way I used the rankings is making the points percentage (2 points for win) of the home team
1.3*home coefficients/away coefficients. 1.3 is the number found most accurate when I tested previous results.
I'm counting on Voros (see links) to publish club rankings and then I will make an update.


Group Team Coefficients Points 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Qualifing 2nd Round Quarter Semi Finalist Champion
1 Internazionale 17.76 11.89 53.10% 36.80% 9.38% 0.73% 89.90% 35.59% 25.54% 14.54% 7.66% 6.57%
1 Werder Bremen 16.28 11.24 41.71% 44.23% 12.64% 1.42% 85.94% 39.79% 23.83% 12.17% 5.93% 4.22%
1 Tottenham Hotspur 6.45 6.68 4.92% 16.67% 57.42% 20.99% 21.59% 16.13% 4.21% 0.99% 0.22% 0.06%
1 FC Twente Enschede 2.87 3.52 0.26% 2.31% 20.57% 76.86% 2.57% 2.31% 0.22% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Olympique Lyon 18.39 12.63 68.75% 25.26% 5.42% 0.57% 94.01% 36.89% 29.34% 15.40% 7.43% 4.96%
2 Benfica 13.18 10.07 26.18% 50.59% 18.66% 4.58% 76.77% 50.02% 17.85% 6.22% 1.99% 0.68%
2 Schalke 04 6.26 6.43 4.44% 18.60% 50.03% 26.92% 23.05% 18.81% 3.54% 0.60% 0.08% 0.01%
2 Hapoel Tel-Aviv 3.51 4.10 0.63% 5.55% 25.89% 67.93% 6.18% 5.54% 0.58% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Manchester United 22.43 14.43 78.93% 18.67% 2.40% 0.00% 97.60% 23.10% 25.76% 18.23% 11.78% 18.72%
3 Valencia 13.62 10.81 17.93% 58.09% 23.87% 0.11% 76.02% 49.08% 17.27% 6.53% 2.26% 0.88%
3 Glasgow Rangers 7.46 8.12 3.14% 23.23% 72.75% 0.88% 26.37% 21.57% 3.89% 0.77% 0.13% 0.02%
3 Bursaspor 0.73 0.89 0.00% 0.02% 0.98% 99.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 FC Barcelona 22.84 14.48 89.46% 9.88% 0.63% 0.03% 99.34% 22.38% 26.30% 18.57% 11.97% 20.12%
4 Panathinaikos 11.67 9.10 9.31% 62.89% 21.41% 6.39% 72.20% 53.84% 13.14% 3.83% 1.10% 0.30%
4 FC København 5.46 5.72 0.99% 18.61% 47.32% 33.09% 19.59% 17.01% 2.19% 0.33% 0.05% 0.01%
4 Rubin Kazan 3.74 4.21 0.24% 8.62% 30.64% 60.49% 8.87% 8.06% 0.73% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Bayern München 20.94 13.81 73.02% 24.87% 2.09% 0.03% 97.89% 29.64% 27.93% 17.72% 10.53% 12.06%
5 AS Roma 14.96 11.15 25.42% 61.37% 12.80% 0.41% 86.79% 53.43% 20.53% 8.20% 3.16% 1.47%
5 FC Basel 5.78 6.70 1.55% 13.34% 74.18% 10.93% 14.89% 12.79% 1.82% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00%
5 CFR Cluj 1.76 2.20 0.01% 0.42% 10.94% 88.63% 0.43% 0.42% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Chelsea 21.71 14.44 79.62% 19.39% 0.99% 0.00% 99.01% 27.27% 29.01% 18.88% 11.01% 12.83%
6 Olympique Marseille 14.26 11.01 19.51% 67.74% 12.39% 0.37% 87.25% 60.59% 18.15% 6.10% 1.80% 0.60%
6 Spartak Moscow 5.51 6.53 0.87% 12.54% 75.92% 10.68% 13.40% 12.05% 1.20% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00%
6 MSK Zilina 1.63 2.04 0.00% 0.34% 10.71% 88.95% 0.34% 0.33% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 AC Milan 16.32 11.88 47.52% 36.45% 15.80% 0.23% 83.97% 38.89% 24.59% 12.01% 5.24% 3.24%
7 Real Madrid 15.70 11.62 42.77% 39.17% 17.76% 0.29% 81.94% 40.56% 23.65% 10.80% 4.45% 2.49%
7 Ajax 8.36 8.37 9.71% 24.27% 63.64% 2.38% 33.98% 25.48% 6.59% 1.54% 0.31% 0.07%
7 AJ Auxerre 1.44 1.80 0.00% 0.11% 2.80% 97.10% 0.11% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Arsenal 20.36 13.66 69.78% 27.15% 3.05% 0.03% 96.93% 30.97% 29.05% 17.66% 9.79% 9.45%
8 Shakhtar Donetsk 14.96 11.32 27.99% 57.88% 13.85% 0.28% 85.87% 52.65% 20.91% 8.04% 3.03% 1.25%
8 Sporting Braga 6.20 7.16 2.24% 14.82% 77.67% 5.27% 17.06% 14.57% 2.11% 0.33% 0.04% 0.01%
8 Partizan Belgrade 1.44 1.80 0.00% 0.15% 5.43% 94.43% 0.15% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Barcelona are the favorites and then Manchester United 2nd.

יום ראשון, 12 בספטמבר 2010

UEFA EURO 2012 Simulation

This simulation and all the next UEFA EURO 2012 simulations are based on the latest Voros Mccracken's rankings.
More on his rankings on http://vorosmccracken.com/
The simulations use seeding for the PO draw with the new UEFA coefficient rankings that will be given the simulated results.
There were 100K simulations. I can easily make more than that but it seems redundant.
I will start by publishing the simulations as of the beginning of the qualifying:
the teams are ordered by their average coefficients at the end of the campaign (I thought it would be interesting to see it and compare it to the probability of qualifing).


Team Coefficients Attack Defence Points 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Best RU PO Winner PO loser Qualifing
Spain 42495.07 13.08 358.09 19.58 84.22% 14.32% 1.36% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 3.52% 9.72% 1.08% 97.46%
Netherlands 40538.58 11.89 316.97 24.43 80.20% 17.58% 1.94% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00% 3.79% 11.78% 2.01% 95.77%
Germany 38937.86 13.86 232.63 24.91 83.68% 15.15% 1.07% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 4.83% 8.65% 1.66% 97.16%
England 33909.74 11.81 245.81 17.11 75.91% 17.48% 5.11% 1.27% 0.23% 0.00% 2.08% 12.15% 3.25% 90.15%
Croatia 32644.45 9.78 200.95 21.39 59.32% 25.42% 11.80% 3.09% 0.37% 0.00% 3.06% 14.85% 7.51% 77.23%
Italy 32609.73 9.51 230.4 21.23 53.69% 31.94% 11.22% 2.93% 0.23% 0.00% 3.48% 20.21% 8.25% 77.37%
Russia 32577.46 9.37 194.2 21.33 56.65% 25.60% 12.81% 4.59% 0.35% 0.00% 2.30% 14.44% 8.86% 73.39%
Portugal 32358.90 9.93 284.43 16.96 61.55% 26.63% 10.77% 0.96% 0.09% 0.00% 4.48% 17.16% 4.98% 83.20%
France 30788.67 8.49 259.55 21.17 56.40% 27.73% 11.13% 3.91% 0.83% 0.00% 3.60% 16.54% 7.59% 76.54%
Serbia 30201.30 9.15 200.69 19.99 36.43% 40.04% 17.51% 5.44% 0.57% 0.01% 3.95% 21.12% 14.98% 61.49%
Sweden 30180.81 8.75 226.04 20.32 17.88% 62.42% 14.91% 4.06% 0.72% 0.00% 8.52% 34.56% 19.35% 60.95%
Greece 30082.14 7.72 180.93 18.37 21.63% 34.41% 29.24% 12.11% 2.55% 0.05% 3.56% 16.32% 14.54% 41.50%
Ukraine 29973.93 8.33 209.4 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Czech Republic 29353.46 9.49 214.32 15.00 14.05% 64.80% 17.21% 3.90% 0.04% 0.00% 9.03% 37.01% 18.76% 60.09%
Turkey 28971.20 9.72 182.2 20.14 15.21% 68.31% 13.16% 3.09% 0.23% 0.01% 13.45% 30.30% 24.56% 58.96%
Denmark 28813.07 9.77 186.18 14.26 24.16% 39.96% 30.42% 4.68% 0.79% 0.00% 5.08% 18.59% 16.28% 47.83%
Switzerland 28473.28 7.65 202.45 12.31 14.26% 40.18% 26.83% 13.52% 5.21% 0.00% 3.13% 19.43% 17.62% 36.82%
Slovakia 28336.74 9.31 128.5 18.33 20.50% 31.46% 28.91% 16.96% 2.16% 0.00% 1.84% 9.92% 19.70% 32.26%
Israel 27460.65 8.46 146.34 17.60 16.39% 30.27% 33.67% 15.76% 3.80% 0.11% 2.45% 9.48% 18.34% 28.32%
Romania 26986.33 8.77 183.28 19.17 30.21% 37.50% 20.16% 9.35% 2.77% 0.01% 3.75% 15.09% 18.65% 49.06%
Republic of Ireland 26814.13 6.33 201.68 18.11 17.73% 29.29% 31.28% 19.16% 2.53% 0.01% 2.37% 9.26% 17.66% 29.37%
Finland 26666.04 6.1 150.66 15.00 1.23% 11.35% 42.21% 32.29% 12.91% 0.00% 0.53% 2.73% 8.09% 4.50%
Slovenia 26306.49 6.5 174.28 16.01 7.51% 19.15% 42.12% 25.77% 5.21% 0.23% 1.22% 5.36% 12.58% 14.09%
Poland 26292.02 8.56 158.2 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Norway 25491.35 8.26 187.39 12.96 13.95% 30.78% 44.68% 8.85% 1.74% 0.00% 3.23% 11.60% 15.96% 28.77%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 25208.55 9.18 114.22 15.71 8.06% 18.73% 32.10% 27.60% 13.41% 0.10% 0.91% 4.18% 13.63% 13.15%
Bulgaria 25202.98 8.64 143.88 10.77 7.33% 26.77% 32.87% 21.75% 11.27% 0.00% 1.37% 8.35% 17.05% 17.05%
Northern Ireland 24797.86 5.3 157.17 13.57 2.29% 8.26% 25.09% 48.23% 14.97% 1.17% 0.34% 1.70% 6.22% 4.33%
Scotland 24227.06 6.67 156.94 10.77 1.45% 15.44% 52.90% 28.85% 1.36% 0.00% 0.71% 4.11% 10.62% 6.28%
Latvia 24080.77 6.46 120.08 13.33 2.38% 8.33% 19.33% 46.05% 22.48% 1.43% 0.34% 1.34% 6.65% 4.06%
Hungary 23940.88 6.01 132.94 14.02 0.65% 7.46% 32.05% 40.13% 19.72% 0.01% 0.24% 1.41% 5.81% 2.30%
Austria 23718.31 6.99 115.27 13.39 0.53% 7.95% 40.02% 40.02% 9.28% 2.20% 0.43% 1.36% 6.16% 2.33%
Belarus 23155.38 7.91 117.64 14.57 4.55% 12.77% 26.36% 35.08% 21.04% 0.21% 0.55% 2.46% 9.76% 7.57%
Belgium 21728.88 6.96 117.45 13.53 0.58% 8.38% 41.67% 38.45% 8.84% 2.08% 0.43% 1.41% 6.54% 2.42%
FYR Macedonia 21678.20 5.92 142.68 15.18 5.03% 13.02% 24.52% 47.31% 10.09% 0.04% 0.53% 2.48% 10.02% 8.03%
Lithuania 21601.26 4.97 147.47 8.62 0.29% 5.42% 28.05% 61.47% 4.78% 0.00% 0.14% 0.96% 4.32% 1.38%
Wales 21178.87 5.59 155.9 8.23 1.77% 10.46% 21.84% 35.28% 30.65% 0.00% 0.37% 2.18% 7.91% 4.32%
Albania 18891.91 4.85 131.69 11.38 0.78% 3.28% 10.25% 23.99% 60.29% 1.42% 0.13% 0.44% 2.70% 1.35%
Cyprus 18428.24 6.27 92.05 5.71 0.17% 1.21% 6.59% 40.71% 51.33% 0.00% 0.03% 0.10% 1.08% 0.30%
Montenegro 18332.36 5.76 124.32 6.75 0.73% 5.11% 13.35% 28.18% 52.64% 0.00% 0.10% 0.80% 4.21% 1.63%
Estonia 17278.68 3.89 110.74 8.76 0.08% 0.61% 3.96% 16.46% 66.62% 12.27% 0.01% 0.05% 0.55% 0.14%
Moldova 17122.16 4.65 106.3 10.80 0.04% 1.19% 8.88% 23.27% 66.53% 0.08% 0.01% 0.08% 1.09% 0.14%
Georgia 16431.74 5.47 96.53 9.96 0.29% 1.56% 5.90% 22.21% 62.32% 7.72% 0.05% 0.11% 1.40% 0.45%
Iceland 16289.66 5.39 107.42 5.95 0.17% 1.43% 7.54% 44.81% 46.05% 0.00% 0.04% 0.16% 1.23% 0.37%
Armenia 16250.92 3.4 108.13 9.24 0.09% 0.63% 2.49% 11.96% 82.27% 2.57% 0.01% 0.03% 0.58% 0.14%
Kazakhstan 15454.61 4.02 78.51 5.98 0.00% 0.07% 1.60% 7.53% 35.43% 55.38% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.01%
Azerbaijan 14875.88 3.17 104.13 6.71 0.00% 0.15% 2.49% 10.82% 46.23% 40.33% 0.00% 0.01% 0.14% 0.01%
Luxembourg 12319.07 1.79 69.04 2.21 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 1.67% 98.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Faroe Islands 12110.57 3.2 64.63 3.84 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 1.17% 12.41% 86.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Liechtenstein 12010.76 2.85 71.41 2.27 0.00% 0.01% 0.49% 5.67% 93.82% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00%
Malta 11560.55 3.03 67.93 3.59 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.78% 8.48% 90.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Andorra 9159.83 1.41 54.06 1.87 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 2.60% 97.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
San Marino 8027.11 0.82 38.36 0.56 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 99.91% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%













































And here are the main tournament simulations. Spain did even better than I expected (and the rankings are not even including its WC final win!);









Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Semi Finalist Champion
Spain 56.80% 25.05% 11.40% 4.21% 18.98% 15.00% 11.82% 36.05%
Netherlands 46.93% 27.19% 14.93% 6.72% 27.23% 19.97% 12.59% 14.34%
Germany 43.43% 28.43% 16.97% 8.33% 28.61% 19.69% 11.98% 11.58%
England 34.56% 26.97% 18.36% 10.26% 27.84% 16.82% 9.42% 7.44%
Croatia 17.73% 21.20% 21.12% 17.18% 22.65% 9.99% 4.16% 2.14%
Italy 20.10% 22.49% 19.97% 14.83% 23.10% 11.41% 5.08% 2.99%
Russia 14.81% 19.50% 20.56% 18.52% 20.56% 8.70% 3.37% 1.69%
Portugal 28.20% 25.42% 18.81% 10.77% 25.37% 14.30% 7.98% 5.97%
France 17.73% 21.89% 21.13% 15.79% 21.82% 10.23% 4.83% 2.75%
Serbia 11.41% 15.84% 17.80% 16.45% 16.43% 6.82% 2.73% 1.27%
Sweden 12.35% 16.43% 17.44% 14.74% 16.59% 7.40% 3.18% 1.62%
Greece 4.80% 8.84% 12.43% 15.44% 9.31% 2.98% 1.02% 0.34%
Ukraine 19.95% 25.84% 28.03% 26.19% 23.08% 12.40% 5.76% 4.53%
Czech Republic 12.54% 16.02% 16.75% 14.77% 16.32% 7.39% 3.15% 1.71%
Turkey 9.79% 14.09% 17.20% 17.88% 14.75% 5.89% 2.22% 1.02%
Denmark 8.55% 11.73% 13.95% 13.60% 12.25% 5.12% 2.01% 0.91%
Switzerland 4.99% 8.26% 10.98% 12.59% 8.58% 3.12% 1.10% 0.46%
Slovakia 2.36% 5.06% 9.01% 15.83% 5.41% 1.55% 0.36% 0.11%
Israel 2.35% 4.65% 8.08% 13.25% 5.00% 1.48% 0.39% 0.12%
Romania 6.38% 10.58% 14.34% 17.76% 10.95% 4.03% 1.44% 0.54%
Republic of Ireland 2.61% 5.40% 8.54% 12.82% 5.54% 1.76% 0.55% 0.16%
Finland 0.19% 0.52% 1.24% 2.54% 0.56% 0.12% 0.03% 0.01%
Slovenia 1.00% 2.25% 3.95% 6.89% 2.38% 0.67% 0.16% 0.05%
Poland 13.06% 21.18% 29.21% 36.55% 20.38% 8.71% 3.37% 1.78%
Norway 3.64% 6.09% 8.44% 10.60% 6.48% 2.18% 0.74% 0.32%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.66% 1.59% 3.33% 7.57% 1.73% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02%
Bulgaria 1.41% 2.73% 4.78% 8.13% 3.00% 0.85% 0.24% 0.05%
Northern Ireland 0.15% 0.47% 1.08% 2.63% 0.50% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01%
Scotland 0.35% 0.92% 1.75% 3.26% 0.93% 0.25% 0.07% 0.01%
Latvia 0.11% 0.35% 0.90% 2.70% 0.38% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%
Hungary 0.06% 0.21% 0.53% 1.50% 0.23% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Austria 0.07% 0.22% 0.52% 1.52% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
Belarus 0.29% 0.72% 1.81% 4.75% 0.81% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01%
Belgium 0.07% 0.21% 0.55% 1.59% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
FYR Macedonia 0.29% 0.85% 1.91% 4.99% 0.93% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
Lithuania 0.04% 0.12% 0.31% 0.91% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Wales 0.18% 0.45% 1.12% 2.57% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%
Albania 0.02% 0.09% 0.27% 0.97% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Cyprus 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.26% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Montenegro 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.19% 0.12% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
Estonia 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Moldova 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Georgia 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.37% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Iceland 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Armenia 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kazakhstan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Azerbaijan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Luxembourg 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Faroe Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Malta 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Andorra 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%