יום שני, 17 בספטמבר 2012

UEFA Team and Country 2012-13 Rankings Simulations

The battle for 5th seems really close, but Portugal is favorite to finish on top:
The battles for 13th and 15th are also fierce.

Based on 100K Simulations:


Rank Country Prediction
1 Spain 89.424
2 England 84.065
3 Germany 77.516
4 Italy 63.764
5 Portugal 60.563
6 France 60.421
7 Ukraine 50.355
8 Russia 46.297
9 Netherlands 45.953
10 Greece 35.307
11 Belgium 35.160
12 Turkey 29.817
13 Cyprus 27.036
14 Switzerland 26.616
15 Denmark 26.261
16 Austria 26.177
17 Israel 23.799
18 Czech Republic 21.727
19 Romania 21.393
20 Poland 20.750
21 Croatia 20.469
22 Belarus 20.375
23 Sweden 15.890
24 Serbia 15.187
25 Norway 14.504
26 Slovakia 14.208
27 Scotland 13.793
28 Bulgaria 12.250
29 Hungary 11.631
30 Slovenia 9.705
31 Georgia 9.166
32 Finland 8.508
33 Azerbaijan 8.430
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 7.833
35 Moldova 7.666
36 Ireland 7.375
37 Lithuania 6.500
38 Kazakhstan 5.958
39 Latvia 5.791
40 Iceland 5.416
41 Montenegro 5.250
41 Macedonia 5.250
43 Albania 4.166
44 Malta 3.958
45 Liechtenstein 3.500
46 Luxembourg 3.375
47 Northern Ireland 3.083
48 Wales 2.583
49 Estonia 2.208
50 Armenia 1.750
51 Faroe Islands 1.583
52 San Marino 0.666
53 Andorra 0.500

Team ranking (based on another 100K simulations):


Rank Team Country Prediction
1 FC Barcelona Esp 163.117
2 Real Madrid Esp 137.545
3 Manchester United Eng 137.242
4 Bayern München Ger 136.748
5 Chelsea Eng 131.185
6 Arsenal Eng 114.697
7 FC Porto Por 107.099
8 Atlético Madrid Esp 106.897
9 Internazionale Ita 104.101
10 Valencia Esp 101.783
11 Shakhtar Donetsk Ukr 97.307
12 Olympique Lyon Fra 94.789
13 AC Milan Ita 94.686
14 Benfica Por 94.107
15 Olympique Marseille Fra 84.191
16 Manchester City Eng 83.168
17 Schalke 04 Ger 81.758
18 Liverpool Eng 80.004
19 CSKA Moscow Rus 77.759
20 Sporting CP Lisbon Por 76.483
21 Dinamo Kiev Ukr 76.002
22 Zenit St. Petersburg Rus 74.838
23 Sporting Braga Por 71.819
24 PSV Eindhoven Ned 69.640
25 Villarreal Esp 67.884
26 Tottenham Hotspur Eng 67.229
27 Juventus Ita 66.813
28 Ajax Ned 65.680
29 VfB Stuttgart Ger 63.049
30 FC Twente Enschede Ned 62.844
31 Paris Saint-Germain Fra 62.646
32 Olympiakos Piraeus Gre 61.930
33 Metalist Kharkiv Ukr 61.134
34 Werder Bremen Ger 60.503
35 Athletic Bilbao Esp 59.823
36 Girondins Bordeaux Fra 57.204
37 Bayer Leverkusen Ger 57.071
38 Lille OSC Fra 56.178
39 Hamburger SV Ger 55.503
40 Sevilla Esp 55.384
41 AS Roma Ita 53.253
42 FC Basel Sui 52.520
43 Napoli Ita 52.039
44 Rubin Kazan Rus 51.047
45 Borussia Dortmund Ger 49.454
46 FC København Den 48.433
47 Anderlecht Bel 48.406
48 Udinese Ita 48.097
49 Spartak Moscow Rus 46.332
50 Standard Liège Bel 46.032
51 Fulham FC Eng 45.813
52 Panathinaikos Gre 45.217
53 Galatasaray Tur 44.123
54 Fiorentina Ita 42.753
55 Hannover 96 Ger 42.395
56 VfL Wolfsburg Ger 41.503
57 Club Brugge Bel 40.491
58 AZ Alkmaar Ned 39.690
59 BATE Borisov Bls 37.094
60 APOEL Nicosia Cyp 35.407
61 Besiktas Tur 33.963
62 Lazio Roma Ita 33.472
63 Málaga CF Esp 33.448
64 Hapoel Tel-Aviv Isr 31.987
65 Fenerbahçe Tur 31.404
66 Celtic Sco 30.275
67 Dinamo Zagreb Cro 29.649
68 Steaua Bucuresti Rom 29.244
69 PAOK Thessaloniki Gre 29.061
70 Hertha BSC Ger 28.503
71 Levante UD Esp 28.266
72 FC Salzburg Aut 28.235
73 CFR Cluj Rom 28.181
74 Aston Villa Eng 27.813
75 Newcastle United Eng 27.788
76 Sparta Praha Cze 27.435
77 AS Saint-Étienne Fra 27.084
78 Borussia Mönchengladbach Ger 26.458
79 Montpellier Fra 26.051
80 Racing Santander Esp 25.884
81 Everton Eng 25.813
82 Sampdoria Ita 25.753
83 Deportivo La Coruña Esp 24.884
84 Stoke City Eng 24.813
85 Racing Genk Bel 24.054
86 Birmingham City Eng 23.813
87 Lech Poznan Pol 23.650
88 Getafe Esp 22.884
89 Portsmouth FC Eng 22.813
90 Glasgow Rangers Sco 22.258
91 Viktoria Plzen Cze 21.795
92 Young Boys Sui 21.465
93 Lokomotiv Moscow Rus 20.759
94 Trabzonspor Tur 20.463
95 Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk Ukr 19.882
96 Partizan Belgrade Srb 19.831
97 AaB Aalborg Den 19.752
98 Heerenveen Ned 19.690
99 AS Nancy Lorraine Fra 19.084
100 Maritimo Funchal Por 19.080
101 Palermo Ita 18.753
102 AJ Auxerre Fra 18.084
103 Spain Esp 17.884
104 Rosenborg BK Nor 17.844
105 Genoa Ita 17.753
106 Anzhi Makhachkala Rus 17.660
107 Nacional Funchal Por 17.612
108 Anorthosis Famagusta Cyp 17.407
109 Stade Rennais Fra 17.084
109 Toulouse FC Fra 17.084
111 AEK Athens Gre 17.061
112 England Eng 16.813
113 Unirea Urziceni Rom 16.778
114 Austria Wien Aut 16.735
115 Rapid Wien Aut 16.510
116 FSV Mainz 05 Ger 16.503
117 FC Zürich Sui 16.323
118 Académica Coimbra Por 16.206
119 NEC Nijmegen Ned 16.190
120 MSK Zilina Svk 15.841
121 FC Vaslui Rom 15.778
122 Germany Ger 15.503
123 Wisla Kraków Pol 15.150
124 Aris Thessaloniki Gre 15.061
125 Vitória Guimarães Por 14.612
126 FC Nordsjælland Den 14.385
127 Feyenoord Ned 14.190
127 FC Utrecht Ned 14.190
129 AA Gent Bel 14.032
130 Bursaspor Tur 13.963
131 Maccabi Haifa Isr 13.760
132 Legia Warsaw Pol 13.650
133 FC Sochaux-Montbéliard Fra 13.584
133 En Avant Guingamp Fra 13.584
135 Vorskla Poltava Ukr 13.570
135 Karpaty Lviv Ukr 13.570
137 Dinamo Bucuresti Rom 13.278
138 Paços de Ferreira Por 13.112
138 Vitória Setúbal Por 13.112
140 Italy Ita 12.753
141 OB Odense Den 12.752
142 Metalurg Donetsk Ukr 12.570
143 Dinamo Moscow Rus 12.259
144 Portugal Por 12.112
145 France Fra 12.084
146 Levski Sofia Bul 11.950
147 Sturm Graz Aut 11.735
148 Tavria Simferopol Ukr 11.570
149 Sheriff Tiraspol Mol 11.533
150 Slavia Praha Cze 11.345
151 Arsenal Kiev Ukr 11.070
152 Alania Vladikavkaz Rus 10.759
152 Sibir Novosibirsk Rus 10.759
152 Amkar Perm Rus 10.759
155 NAC Breda Ned 10.690
156 Omonia Nicosia Cyp 10.407
157 Krylia Sovetov Samara Rus 10.259
157 FK Moscow Rus 10.259
159 NK Maribor Slo 10.214
160 Vitesse Arnhem Ned 10.190
160 ADO Den Haag Ned 10.190
162 Ukraine Ukr 10.070
163 DVSC Debrecen Hun 9.826
164 FC Timisoara Rom 9.778
165 AEK Larnaca Cyp 9.407
166 AEL Limassol Cyp 9.361
167 Russia Rus 9.259
168 Brøndby IF Den 9.252
169 Netherlands Ned 9.190
170 Hajduk Split Cro 9.093
171 Helsingborg IF Swe 9.069
172 Bnei Yehuda Isr 8.760
173 Molde FK Nor 8.738
174 AIK Stockholm Swe 8.736
175 Atromitos FC Gre 8.561
176 Red Star Belgrade Srb 8.537
177 KSC Lokeren Bel 8.532
178 Hapoel Kiryat Shmona Isr 8.459
179 CSKA Sofia Bul 8.450
180 Slovan Bratislava Svk 8.341
181 FC Sion Sui 8.323
182 Rapid Bucuresti Rom 8.278
182 Otelul Galati Rom 8.278
184 Maccabi Tel-Aviv Isr 8.260
185 IF Elfsborg Swe 8.178
185 Kalmar FF Swe 8.178
187 Asteras Tripolis Gre 8.061
187 Olympiakos Volou Gre 8.061
189 KVC Westerlo Bel 8.032
189 Cercle Brugge Bel 8.032
191 Litex Lovech Bul 7.950
192 FC Luzern Sui 7.823
193 FC Midtjylland Den 7.752
194 SV Ried Aut 7.735
195 AE Larissa Gre 7.561
196 FC Fehérvár Hun 7.543
197 Sivasspor Tur 7.463
198 Slovan Liberec Cze 7.345
199 Lausanne Sports Sui 7.323
200 Hearts FC Sco 7.258
201 Randers FC Den 7.252
202 Slask Wroclaw Pol 7.150
203 Greece Gre 7.061
204 Belgium Bel 7.032
205 Eskisehirspor Tur 6.963
205 Gaziantepspor Tur 6.963
205 Kayserispor Tur 6.963
208 FC Thun Sui 6.823
208 Grasshoppers Zürich Sui 6.823
210 Motherwell Sco 6.758
211 AC Horsens Den 6.752
212 HJK Helsinki Fin 6.701
213 FK Ventspils Lat 6.658
214 Apollon Limassol Cyp 6.407
214 APOP Kinyras Peyias Cyp 6.407
216 Tromsø IL Nor 6.401
216 Aalesunds FK Nor 6.401
218 Mladá Boleslav Cze 6.345
218 FK Jablonec Cze 6.345
218 Baník Ostrava Cze 6.345
221 Servette FC Genève Sui 6.323
222 Ekranas Panevezys Lit 6.300
223 Maccabi Netanya Isr 6.260
224 Admira Wacker Aut 6.235
225 FK Aktobe Kaz 6.191
226 Ruch Chorzow Pol 6.150
227 Slaven Koprivnica Cro 6.093
228 FC Gomel Bls 6.075
228 Dinamo Minsk Bls 6.075
230 St. Patrick's Athletic Irl 5.975
231 Turkey Tur 5.963
232 Sigma Olomouc Cze 5.845
232 FK Teplice Cze 5.845
234 Spartak Trnava Svk 5.841
235 FC Zestafoni Geo 5.833
236 Gaz Metan Medias Rom 5.778
237 Dundee United Sco 5.758
238 AGF Aarhus Den 5.752
239 Garabag Agdam Azb 5.686
240 Neftchi Baku Azb 5.600
241 Dnepr Mogilev Bls 5.575
242 Vojvodina Novi Sad Srb 5.537
243 Shamrock Rovers Irl 5.475
244 Cyprus Cyp 5.407
245 Jagiellonia Bialystok Pol 5.400
246 Dinamo Tbilisi Geo 5.333
247 Switzerland Sui 5.323
248 Denmark Den 5.252
249 Austria Aut 5.235
250 Malmö FF Swe 5.178
250 IFK Göteborg Swe 5.178
252 Stabæk IF Nor 5.151
253 Polonia Warsaw Pol 5.150
254 NK Varazdin Cro 5.093
254 RNK Split Cro 5.093
254 NK Rijeka Cro 5.093
257 Naftan Novopolotsk Bls 5.075
257 Shakhtior Saligorsk Bls 5.075
259 FK Sarajevo Bos 5.066
260 Vålerengen IF Nor 4.901
260 SK Brann Bergen Nor 4.901
262 Olimpi Rustavi Geo 4.833
263 Israel Isr 4.760
264 NK Osijek Cro 4.593
264 NK Sibenik Cro 4.593
264 Cibalia Vinkovci Cro 4.593
267 KR Reykjavik Isl 4.583
268 FK Minsk Bls 4.575
268 Torpedo Zhodino Bls 4.575
268 MTZ-Ripo Minsk Bls 4.575
271 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Bos 4.566
272 Rabotnicki Skopje Mac 4.550
273 Cherno More Varna Bul 4.450
274 F91 Dudelange Lux 4.425
275 Czech Republic Cze 4.345
276 FK Senica Svk 4.341
276 MFK Kosice Svk 4.341
278 Romania Rom 4.278
279 Bohemians Dublin Irl 4.225
280 Inter Turku Fin 4.201
281 BK Häcken Swe 4.178
282 Poland Pol 4.150
283 Croatia Cro 4.093
284 FH Hafnarfjardar Isl 4.083
285 Belarus Bls 4.075
286 OFK Belgrade Srb 4.037
286 Spartak Zlatibor Voda Srb 4.037
286 FK Sevojno Srb 4.037
289 Dacia Chisinau Mol 4.033
290 Levadia Tallinn Est 3.941
291 FK Baku Azb 3.936
292 Strømsgodset IF Nor 3.901
292 Fredrikstad FK Nor 3.901
294 Linfield Belfast Nir 3.866
295 Honvéd Budapest Hun 3.826
295 ETO Györ Hun 3.826
297 Valletta FC Mlt 3.791
298 The New Saints Wal 3.766
299 Hibernian Sco 3.758
299 Aberdeen Sco 3.758
301 Honka Espoo Fin 3.701
302 Olimpija Ljubljana Slo 3.690
303 Örebro SK Swe 3.678
303 Gefle IF Swe 3.678
305 Differdange 03 Lux 3.675
306 Metalurgs Liepaja Lat 3.658
307 Pyunik Yerevan Arm 3.600
308 Zrinjski Mostar Bos 3.566
309 Buducnost Podgorica Mon 3.550
309 Mogren Budva Mon 3.550
311 FK Rad Belgrade Srb 3.537
312 Ludogorets Razgrad Bul 3.450
312 Lokomotiv Sofia Bul 3.450
312 FC Beroe Stara Zagora Bul 3.450
315 Mura Murska Sobota Slo 3.440
316 Inter Baku Azb 3.436
317 Skonto Riga Lat 3.408
318 Dukla Banska Bystrica Svk 3.341
319 Dila Gori Geo 3.333
319 SK Tirana Alb 3.333
319 Georgia Tbilisi Geo 3.333
322 Paksi FC Hun 3.326
323 Siroki Brijeg Bos 3.316
323 FK Borac Banja Luka Bos 3.316
325 Suduva Marijampole Lit 3.300
326 FK Jagodina Srb 3.287
327 Bangor City Wal 3.266
328 St. Johnstone Sco 3.258
328 Falkirk FC Sco 3.258
330 Sligo Rovers Irl 3.225
331 KuPS Kuopio Fin 3.201
331 MyPa-47 Fin 3.201
333 FC Vaduz Lie 3.200
334 Flora Tallinn Est 3.191
335 NK Koper Slo 3.190
336 Sweden Swe 3.178
337 FC Nitra Svk 3.091
338 Zeta Golubovci Mon 3.050
338 Renova Dzepciste Mac 3.050
340 Serbia Srb 3.037
341 Iskra-Stal Ribnita Mol 3.033
342 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bul 2.950
343 Shakhtyor Karaganda Kaz 2.941
343 Tobol Kustanai Kaz 2.941
345 Nova Gorica Slo 2.940
345 IB Ljubljana Slo 2.940
347 Khazar Lenkoran Azb 2.936
348 Norway Nor 2.901
349 Slovakia Svk 2.841
350 Skënderbeu Korçë Alb 2.833
351 Ferencváros Hun 2.826
351 Kecskeméti TE Hun 2.826
351 Haladás Szombathely Hun 2.826
351 Újpest TE Hun 2.826
355 HB Torshavn Far 2.816
356 Rudar Pljevlja Mon 2.800
357 Scotland Sco 2.758
358 TPS Turku Fin 2.701
358 FC Lahti Fin 2.701
360 Breidablik Isl 2.583
361 MTK Budapest Hun 2.576
361 Zalaegerszeg TE Hun 2.576
363 Slavija Sarajevo Bos 2.566
364 Birkirkara Mlt 2.541
365 Zimbru Chisinau Mol 2.533
366 Derry City Irl 2.475
367 Bulgaria Bul 2.450
368 NK Domzale Slo 2.440
368 Rudar Velenje Slo 2.440
370 Glentoran Nir 2.366
371 Gagra Tbilisi Geo 2.333
372 Hungary Hun 2.326
373 EB Streymur Far 2.316
374 Metalurg Skopje Mac 2.300
374 Shkendija Tetovo Mac 2.300
374 FK Tauras Lit 2.300
374 Vetra Vilnius Lit 2.300
378 Milsami Orhei Mol 2.283
379 JJK Jyväskylä Fin 2.201
380 NK Celje Slo 2.190
381 Cliftonville Nir 2.116
382 Sant Julià And 2.100
383 Torpedo Kutaisi Geo 2.083
383 KS Flamurtari Vlorë Alb 2.083
383 Dinamo Tirana Alb 2.083
386 Vardar Skopje Mac 2.050
386 FK Siauliai Lit 2.050
386 OFK Petrovac Mon 2.050
386 Teteks Tetovo Mac 2.050
386 Makedonija Skopje Mac 2.050
391 Olimpia Balti Mol 2.033
392 Dundalk Irl 1.975
392 Sporting Fingal Irl 1.975
394 Irtysh Pavlodar Kaz 1.941
395 Slovenia Slo 1.940
396 Olimpik Baku Azb 1.936
396 Simurq Zaqatala Azb 1.936
398 Jeunesse d'Esch Lux 1.925
399 Crusaders Belfast Nir 1.866
400 Ulisses Yerevan Arm 1.850
400 FC Santa Coloma And 1.850
402 Georgia Geo 1.833
402 Vllaznia Shkodër Alb 1.833
404 Zalgiris Vilnius Lit 1.800
404 FBK Kaunas Lit 1.800
406 Llanelli FC Wal 1.766
407 Finland Fin 1.701
408 Ordabasy Shymkent Kaz 1.691
408 FK Atyrau Kaz 1.691
410 Azerbaijan Azb 1.686
411 Daugava Daugavpils Lat 1.658
411 FK Jelgava Lat 1.658
411 Dinaburg Daugavpils Lat 1.658
414 Tre Fiori Sma 1.633
415 Portadown Nir 1.616
416 Mika Ashtarak Arm 1.600
417 Thór Akureyri Isl 1.583
417 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Isl 1.583
417 Fram Reykjavik Isl 1.583
420 Bosnia-Herzegovina Bos 1.566
421 Celik Niksic Mon 1.550
421 Milano Kumanovo Mac 1.550
421 Banga Gargzdai Lit 1.550
424 Floriana Mlt 1.541
424 Hibernians FC Mlt 1.541
424 Sliema Wanderers Mlt 1.541
427 Moldova Mol 1.533
428 Rhyl FC Wal 1.516
429 Ireland Irl 1.475
430 Zhetysu Taldykorgan Kaz 1.441
430 Trans Narva Est 1.441
430 Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kaz 1.441
433 CS Grevenmacher Lux 1.425
434 Tre Penne Sma 1.383
435 Gandzasar Kapan Arm 1.350
436 Fylkir Reykjavik Isl 1.333
436 Keflavik Isl 1.333
436 Besa Kavajë Alb 1.333
439 NSI Runavik Far 1.316
440 Sutjeska Niksic Mon 1.300
440 Lithuania Lit 1.300
442 Kalju Nomme Est 1.191
442 Kazakhstan Kaz 1.191
444 UN Käerjeng Lux 1.175
445 Latvia Lat 1.158
446 Juvenes Dogana Sma 1.133
447 FC Lusitanos And 1.100
447 Banants Yerevan Arm 1.100
449 Teuta Durrës Alb 1.083
449 Iceland Isl 1.083
449 KF Laçi Alb 1.083
452 B36 Torshavn Far 1.066
452 Víkingur Far 1.066
454 Montenegro Mon 1.050
454 Macedonia Mac 1.050
456 USV Eschen-Mauren Lie 0.950
457 Kalev Sillamäe Est 0.941
458 CS Fola Esch Lux 0.925
459 Lisburn Distillery Nir 0.866
460 Shirak Gyumri Arm 0.850
460 UE Santa Coloma And 0.850
462 Albania Alb 0.833
463 Malta Mlt 0.791
464 Cefn Druids Wal 0.766
464 Neath FC Wal 0.766
464 Port Talbot Town Wal 0.766
467 Liechtenstein Lie 0.700
468 Luxembourg Lux 0.675
469 Northern Ireland Nir 0.616
470 IF Fuglafjørdur Far 0.566
471 Wales Wal 0.516
472 Estonia Est 0.441
473 Libertas Sma 0.383
473 La Fiorita Sma 0.383
473 Faetano Sma 0.383
476 Armenia Arm 0.350
477 Faroe Islands Far 0.316
478 San Marino Sma 0.133
479 Andorra And 0.100