I took the ATP stats for 431 players from ATP Matchfacts site:
Then, for each player and surface I calculated the expected number of break points he should have won (separately for serving and returning) given the points he actually won.
Then I calculated how good was the player comparing to the number of break points he actually won.
Ivanisevic has won the most points by being clutch, followed by Sampras (though the difference between them isn't statistical significant).
Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is also high on the list.
Edit: I added columns for service and return separately.
As you can see, most players are doing worse than expected when serving and better when returning.
In total, the 431 players win 62.11% of their service points, and on break points they win only 60.09%. On return, those players win 38.97% of the points, and on break points they win 40.95%.
Here are the top 50:
The bottom 10 has some interesting names too:
If we look on percentage (normalized to have a confidence level of 99%, the top 10 are:
Then, for each player and surface I calculated the expected number of break points he should have won (separately for serving and returning) given the points he actually won.
Then I calculated how good was the player comparing to the number of break points he actually won.
Ivanisevic has won the most points by being clutch, followed by Sampras (though the difference between them isn't statistical significant).
Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is also high on the list.
Edit: I added columns for service and return separately.
As you can see, most players are doing worse than expected when serving and better when returning.
In total, the 431 players win 62.11% of their service points, and on break points they win only 60.09%. On return, those players win 38.97% of the points, and on break points they win 40.95%.
Here are the top 50:
Position | Name | Total Expected | Total Won | Total Played | Difference | service | return |
1 | Goran Ivanisevic | 3229.39 | 3362 | 6402 | 132.61 | -19.28 | 151.88 |
2 | Pete Sampras | 4171.30 | 4303 | 8373 | 131.70 | -31.05 | 162.76 |
3 | Thomas Muster | 4290.19 | 4411 | 8326 | 120.81 | 1.60 | 119.21 |
4 | Novak Djokovic | 3347.59 | 3460 | 6530 | 112.41 | -9.79 | 122.20 |
5 | Alexander Volkov | 2277.80 | 2372 | 4554 | 94.20 | 5.44 | 88.76 |
6 | Fabrice Santoro | 5990.05 | 6084 | 11930 | 93.95 | -9.69 | 103.64 |
7 | Thomas Johansson | 3531.05 | 3624 | 7053 | 92.95 | -54.97 | 147.93 |
8 | Andreas Vinciguerra | 1098.42 | 1188 | 2178 | 89.58 | 45.05 | 44.52 |
9 | Marcos Ondruska | 1805.77 | 1892 | 3627 | 86.23 | 13.64 | 72.58 |
10 | Andre Agassi | 5919.76 | 6000 | 11602 | 80.24 | -29.61 | 109.85 |
11 | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | 5074.88 | 5155 | 10044 | 80.12 | -54.13 | 134.25 |
12 | Robin Soderling | 2713.00 | 2786 | 5361 | 73.00 | -66.65 | 139.65 |
13 | Paul Haarhuis | 2452.82 | 2521 | 4869 | 68.18 | -28.49 | 96.67 |
14 | Vincent Spadea | 4747.47 | 4813 | 9382 | 65.53 | -58.91 | 124.44 |
15 | Jan-Michael Gambill | 2060.23 | 2124 | 4026 | 63.77 | -4.46 | 68.23 |
16 | Rafael Nadal | 4483.64 | 4543 | 8649 | 59.36 | -43.29 | 102.65 |
17 | Nicolas Kiefer | 3912.44 | 3970 | 7758 | 57.56 | -77.06 | 134.62 |
18 | Jarkko Nieminen | 3666.64 | 3723 | 7269 | 56.36 | -30.08 | 86.45 |
19 | Patrick McEnroe | 1502.70 | 1557 | 2996 | 54.30 | 21.53 | 32.76 |
20 | Michael Stich | 2220.01 | 2274 | 4386 | 53.99 | -3.03 | 57.02 |
21 | Fernando Gonzalez | 3382.66 | 3436 | 6715 | 53.34 | -52.25 | 105.59 |
22 | Nicolas Massu | 3205.80 | 3258 | 6260 | 52.20 | -16.70 | 68.90 |
23 | Stefan Edberg | 2806.85 | 2857 | 5503 | 50.15 | -8.43 | 58.58 |
24 | Filip Dewulf | 1090.30 | 1138 | 2189 | 47.70 | -5.53 | 53.23 |
25 | Dmitry Tursunov | 1803.44 | 1849 | 3579 | 45.56 | -24.71 | 70.27 |
26 | Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo | 977.40 | 1022 | 1954 | 44.60 | -16.51 | 61.11 |
27 | Felix Mantilla | 3896.81 | 3941 | 7643 | 44.19 | -79.93 | 124.12 |
28 | Jeff Tarango | 3047.08 | 3090 | 6118 | 42.92 | -30.85 | 73.77 |
29 | Paul Goldstein | 1357.29 | 1400 | 2723 | 42.71 | 8.58 | 34.14 |
30 | Gilles Simon | 2694.99 | 2737 | 5321 | 42.01 | -28.44 | 70.45 |
31 | Andrei Chesnokov | 2123.89 | 2164 | 4246 | 40.11 | -24.02 | 64.13 |
32 | Fernando Verdasco | 3616.24 | 3656 | 7113 | 39.76 | -67.52 | 107.28 |
33 | Viktor Troicki | 1560.27 | 1600 | 3098 | 39.73 | -22.44 | 62.17 |
34 | Jonas Svensson | 894.66 | 934 | 1781 | 39.34 | 19.61 | 19.72 |
35 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1152.08 | 1191 | 2302 | 38.92 | -24.84 | 63.77 |
36 | Juan Martin Del Potro | 1684.37 | 1723 | 3334 | 38.63 | -34.70 | 73.33 |
37 | Brad Gilbert | 1325.95 | 1364 | 2618 | 38.05 | -14.80 | 52.85 |
38 | Florent Serra | 1942.16 | 1980 | 3899 | 37.84 | -8.25 | 46.09 |
39 | Jared Palmer | 681.11 | 718 | 1352 | 36.89 | 8.59 | 28.29 |
40 | Jiri Vanek | 1289.33 | 1325 | 2603 | 35.67 | -6.44 | 42.11 |
41 | Christian Bergstrom | 778.04 | 812 | 1553 | 33.96 | -11.11 | 45.07 |
42 | Mikhail Youzhny | 4081.19 | 4115 | 8118 | 33.81 | -74.44 | 108.25 |
43 | Olivier Rochus | 3214.39 | 3248 | 6433 | 33.61 | -45.54 | 79.16 |
44 | James Blake | 3754.47 | 3787 | 7429 | 32.53 | -76.96 | 109.49 |
45 | Tommy Haas | 4353.88 | 4386 | 8673 | 32.12 | -102.99 | 135.11 |
46 | Greg Rusedski | 3275.38 | 3307 | 6537 | 31.62 | -41.95 | 73.58 |
47 | Sergi Bruguera | 3783.16 | 3814 | 7360 | 30.84 | -80.74 | 111.58 |
48 | Byron Black | 2633.12 | 2663 | 5244 | 29.88 | -48.49 | 78.37 |
49 | Jim Courier | 3289.29 | 3319 | 6482 | 29.71 | -69.74 | 99.44 |
50 | Flavio Saretta | 712.34 | 742 | 1407 | 29.66 | 12.16 | 17.49 |
The bottom 10 has some interesting names too:
Position | Name | Total Expected | Total Won | Total Played | Difference | service | return |
422 | Arnaud Clement | 4026.19 | 3960 | 8033 | -66.19 | -94.96 | 28.78 |
423 | Thomas Enqvist | 4258.08 | 4189 | 8464 | -69.08 | -138.72 | 69.63 |
424 | Mariano Zabaleta | 2923.55 | 2851 | 5844 | -72.55 | -68.75 | -3.80 |
425 | Christophe Rochus | 2302.75 | 2228 | 4702 | -74.75 | -82.00 | 7.25 |
426 | Albert Costa | 4517.68 | 4439 | 8891 | -78.68 | -97.98 | 19.29 |
427 | Gaston Gaudio | 3524.96 | 3445 | 6919 | -79.96 | -81.67 | 1.71 |
428 | Jonas Bjorkman | 5192.75 | 5111 | 10281 | -81.75 | -87.52 | 5.76 |
429 | Hyung-Taik Lee | 1922.93 | 1837 | 3871 | -85.93 | -75.87 | -10.07 |
430 | Juan Carlos Ferrero | 5142.41 | 5052 | 10027 | -90.41 | -59.09 | -31.32 |
431 | Karol Kucera | 3241.60 | 3133 | 6427 | -108.60 | -151.01 | 42.41 |
If we look on percentage (normalized to have a confidence level of 99%, the top 10 are:
Name | Total Expected | Total Won | Total Played | Difference | Normalized |
Rohan Bopanna | 36.00 | 43 | 65 | 7.00 | 0.089 |
Arne Thoms | 126.79 | 142 | 249 | 15.21 | 0.056 |
Jesse Levine | 133.88 | 149 | 263 | 15.12 | 0.053 |
Andreas Vinciguerra | 1098.42 | 1188 | 2178 | 89.58 | 0.041 |
Jimmy Wang | 127.64 | 138 | 251 | 10.36 | 0.036 |
Juan Balcells | 310.81 | 334 | 614 | 23.19 | 0.036 |
Alexander Popp | 287.75 | 307 | 571 | 19.25 | 0.032 |
Oleg Ogorodov | 232.04 | 247 | 467 | 14.96 | 0.029 |
Nuno Marques | 376.04 | 399 | 768 | 22.96 | 0.028 |
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