Champions League 2010-11

Well, I must admit that this set of simulations is probably less accurate that the EURO one...
The ranking used for simulations is a manipulation of UEFA coefficients (weighted average of the last 5 years, with weights (1,2,3,4,5)).
The way I used the rankings is making the points percentage (2 points for win) of the home team
1.3*home coefficients/away coefficients. 1.3 is the number found most accurate when I tested previous results.
I'm counting on Voros (see links) to publish club rankings and then I will make an update.

Group	Team	Coefficients	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Qualifing	2nd Round	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
1	Internazionale	17.76	11.89	53.10%	36.80%	9.38%	0.73%	89.90%	35.59%	25.54%	14.54%	7.66%	6.57%
1	Werder Bremen	16.28	11.24	41.71%	44.23%	12.64%	1.42%	85.94%	39.79%	23.83%	12.17%	5.93%	4.22%
1	Tottenham Hotspur	6.45	6.68	4.92%	16.67%	57.42%	20.99%	21.59%	16.13%	4.21%	0.99%	0.22%	0.06%
1	FC Twente Enschede	2.87	3.52	0.26%	2.31%	20.57%	76.86%	2.57%	2.31%	0.22%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Olympique Lyon	18.39	12.63	68.75%	25.26%	5.42%	0.57%	94.01%	36.89%	29.34%	15.40%	7.43%	4.96%
2	Benfica	13.18	10.07	26.18%	50.59%	18.66%	4.58%	76.77%	50.02%	17.85%	6.22%	1.99%	0.68%
2	Schalke 04	6.26	6.43	4.44%	18.60%	50.03%	26.92%	23.05%	18.81%	3.54%	0.60%	0.08%	0.01%
2	Hapoel Tel-Aviv	3.51	4.10	0.63%	5.55%	25.89%	67.93%	6.18%	5.54%	0.58%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Manchester United	22.43	14.43	78.93%	18.67%	2.40%	0.00%	97.60%	23.10%	25.76%	18.23%	11.78%	18.72%
3	Valencia	13.62	10.81	17.93%	58.09%	23.87%	0.11%	76.02%	49.08%	17.27%	6.53%	2.26%	0.88%
3	Glasgow Rangers	7.46	8.12	3.14%	23.23%	72.75%	0.88%	26.37%	21.57%	3.89%	0.77%	0.13%	0.02%
3	Bursaspor	0.73	0.89	0.00%	0.02%	0.98%	99.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	FC Barcelona	22.84	14.48	89.46%	9.88%	0.63%	0.03%	99.34%	22.38%	26.30%	18.57%	11.97%	20.12%
4	Panathinaikos	11.67	9.10	9.31%	62.89%	21.41%	6.39%	72.20%	53.84%	13.14%	3.83%	1.10%	0.30%
4	FC København	5.46	5.72	0.99%	18.61%	47.32%	33.09%	19.59%	17.01%	2.19%	0.33%	0.05%	0.01%
4	Rubin Kazan	3.74	4.21	0.24%	8.62%	30.64%	60.49%	8.87%	8.06%	0.73%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Bayern München	20.94	13.81	73.02%	24.87%	2.09%	0.03%	97.89%	29.64%	27.93%	17.72%	10.53%	12.06%
5	AS Roma	14.96	11.15	25.42%	61.37%	12.80%	0.41%	86.79%	53.43%	20.53%	8.20%	3.16%	1.47%
5	FC Basel	5.78	6.70	1.55%	13.34%	74.18%	10.93%	14.89%	12.79%	1.82%	0.25%	0.03%	0.00%
5	CFR Cluj	1.76	2.20	0.01%	0.42%	10.94%	88.63%	0.43%	0.42%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Chelsea	21.71	14.44	79.62%	19.39%	0.99%	0.00%	99.01%	27.27%	29.01%	18.88%	11.01%	12.83%
6	Olympique Marseille	14.26	11.01	19.51%	67.74%	12.39%	0.37%	87.25%	60.59%	18.15%	6.10%	1.80%	0.60%
6	Spartak Moscow	5.51	6.53	0.87%	12.54%	75.92%	10.68%	13.40%	12.05%	1.20%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%
6	MSK Zilina	1.63	2.04	0.00%	0.34%	10.71%	88.95%	0.34%	0.33%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	AC Milan	16.32	11.88	47.52%	36.45%	15.80%	0.23%	83.97%	38.89%	24.59%	12.01%	5.24%	3.24%
7	Real Madrid	15.70	11.62	42.77%	39.17%	17.76%	0.29%	81.94%	40.56%	23.65%	10.80%	4.45%	2.49%
7	Ajax	8.36	8.37	9.71%	24.27%	63.64%	2.38%	33.98%	25.48%	6.59%	1.54%	0.31%	0.07%
7	AJ Auxerre	1.44	1.80	0.00%	0.11%	2.80%	97.10%	0.11%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Arsenal	20.36	13.66	69.78%	27.15%	3.05%	0.03%	96.93%	30.97%	29.05%	17.66%	9.79%	9.45%
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	14.96	11.32	27.99%	57.88%	13.85%	0.28%	85.87%	52.65%	20.91%	8.04%	3.03%	1.25%
8	Sporting Braga	6.20	7.16	2.24%	14.82%	77.67%	5.27%	17.06%	14.57%	2.11%	0.33%	0.04%	0.01%
8	Partizan Belgrade	1.44	1.80	0.00%	0.15%	5.43%	94.43%	0.15%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Barcelona are the favorites and then Manchester United 2nd.

UEFA EURO 2012 Simulation

This simulation and all the next UEFA EURO 2012 simulations are based on the latest Voros Mccracken's rankings.
More on his rankings on http://vorosmccracken.com/
The simulations use seeding for the PO draw with the new UEFA coefficient rankings that will be given the simulated results.
There were 100K simulations. I can easily make more than that but it seems redundant.
I will start by publishing the simulations as of the beginning of the qualifying:
the teams are ordered by their average coefficients at the end of the campaign (I thought it would be interesting to see it and compare it to the probability of qualifing).

Team	Coefficients	Attack	Defence	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Best RU	PO Winner	PO loser	Qualifing
Spain	42495.07	13.08	358.09	19.58	84.22%	14.32%	1.36%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	3.52%	9.72%	1.08%	97.46%
Netherlands	40538.58	11.89	316.97	24.43	80.20%	17.58%	1.94%	0.25%	0.03%	0.00%	3.79%	11.78%	2.01%	95.77%
Germany	38937.86	13.86	232.63	24.91	83.68%	15.15%	1.07%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	4.83%	8.65%	1.66%	97.16%
England	33909.74	11.81	245.81	17.11	75.91%	17.48%	5.11%	1.27%	0.23%	0.00%	2.08%	12.15%	3.25%	90.15%
Croatia	32644.45	9.78	200.95	21.39	59.32%	25.42%	11.80%	3.09%	0.37%	0.00%	3.06%	14.85%	7.51%	77.23%
Italy	32609.73	9.51	230.4	21.23	53.69%	31.94%	11.22%	2.93%	0.23%	0.00%	3.48%	20.21%	8.25%	77.37%
Russia	32577.46	9.37	194.2	21.33	56.65%	25.60%	12.81%	4.59%	0.35%	0.00%	2.30%	14.44%	8.86%	73.39%
Portugal	32358.90	9.93	284.43	16.96	61.55%	26.63%	10.77%	0.96%	0.09%	0.00%	4.48%	17.16%	4.98%	83.20%
France	30788.67	8.49	259.55	21.17	56.40%	27.73%	11.13%	3.91%	0.83%	0.00%	3.60%	16.54%	7.59%	76.54%
Serbia	30201.30	9.15	200.69	19.99	36.43%	40.04%	17.51%	5.44%	0.57%	0.01%	3.95%	21.12%	14.98%	61.49%
Sweden	30180.81	8.75	226.04	20.32	17.88%	62.42%	14.91%	4.06%	0.72%	0.00%	8.52%	34.56%	19.35%	60.95%
Greece	30082.14	7.72	180.93	18.37	21.63%	34.41%	29.24%	12.11%	2.55%	0.05%	3.56%	16.32%	14.54%	41.50%
Ukraine	29973.93	8.33	209.4	0.00	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Czech Republic	29353.46	9.49	214.32	15.00	14.05%	64.80%	17.21%	3.90%	0.04%	0.00%	9.03%	37.01%	18.76%	60.09%
Turkey	28971.20	9.72	182.2	20.14	15.21%	68.31%	13.16%	3.09%	0.23%	0.01%	13.45%	30.30%	24.56%	58.96%
Denmark	28813.07	9.77	186.18	14.26	24.16%	39.96%	30.42%	4.68%	0.79%	0.00%	5.08%	18.59%	16.28%	47.83%
Switzerland	28473.28	7.65	202.45	12.31	14.26%	40.18%	26.83%	13.52%	5.21%	0.00%	3.13%	19.43%	17.62%	36.82%
Slovakia	28336.74	9.31	128.5	18.33	20.50%	31.46%	28.91%	16.96%	2.16%	0.00%	1.84%	9.92%	19.70%	32.26%
Israel	27460.65	8.46	146.34	17.60	16.39%	30.27%	33.67%	15.76%	3.80%	0.11%	2.45%	9.48%	18.34%	28.32%
Romania	26986.33	8.77	183.28	19.17	30.21%	37.50%	20.16%	9.35%	2.77%	0.01%	3.75%	15.09%	18.65%	49.06%
Republic of Ireland	26814.13	6.33	201.68	18.11	17.73%	29.29%	31.28%	19.16%	2.53%	0.01%	2.37%	9.26%	17.66%	29.37%
Finland	26666.04	6.1	150.66	15.00	1.23%	11.35%	42.21%	32.29%	12.91%	0.00%	0.53%	2.73%	8.09%	4.50%
Slovenia	26306.49	6.5	174.28	16.01	7.51%	19.15%	42.12%	25.77%	5.21%	0.23%	1.22%	5.36%	12.58%	14.09%
Poland	26292.02	8.56	158.2	0.00	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Norway	25491.35	8.26	187.39	12.96	13.95%	30.78%	44.68%	8.85%	1.74%	0.00%	3.23%	11.60%	15.96%	28.77%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	25208.55	9.18	114.22	15.71	8.06%	18.73%	32.10%	27.60%	13.41%	0.10%	0.91%	4.18%	13.63%	13.15%
Bulgaria	25202.98	8.64	143.88	10.77	7.33%	26.77%	32.87%	21.75%	11.27%	0.00%	1.37%	8.35%	17.05%	17.05%
Northern Ireland	24797.86	5.3	157.17	13.57	2.29%	8.26%	25.09%	48.23%	14.97%	1.17%	0.34%	1.70%	6.22%	4.33%
Scotland	24227.06	6.67	156.94	10.77	1.45%	15.44%	52.90%	28.85%	1.36%	0.00%	0.71%	4.11%	10.62%	6.28%
Latvia	24080.77	6.46	120.08	13.33	2.38%	8.33%	19.33%	46.05%	22.48%	1.43%	0.34%	1.34%	6.65%	4.06%
Hungary	23940.88	6.01	132.94	14.02	0.65%	7.46%	32.05%	40.13%	19.72%	0.01%	0.24%	1.41%	5.81%	2.30%
Austria	23718.31	6.99	115.27	13.39	0.53%	7.95%	40.02%	40.02%	9.28%	2.20%	0.43%	1.36%	6.16%	2.33%
Belarus	23155.38	7.91	117.64	14.57	4.55%	12.77%	26.36%	35.08%	21.04%	0.21%	0.55%	2.46%	9.76%	7.57%
Belgium	21728.88	6.96	117.45	13.53	0.58%	8.38%	41.67%	38.45%	8.84%	2.08%	0.43%	1.41%	6.54%	2.42%
FYR Macedonia	21678.20	5.92	142.68	15.18	5.03%	13.02%	24.52%	47.31%	10.09%	0.04%	0.53%	2.48%	10.02%	8.03%
Lithuania	21601.26	4.97	147.47	8.62	0.29%	5.42%	28.05%	61.47%	4.78%	0.00%	0.14%	0.96%	4.32%	1.38%
Wales	21178.87	5.59	155.9	8.23	1.77%	10.46%	21.84%	35.28%	30.65%	0.00%	0.37%	2.18%	7.91%	4.32%
Albania	18891.91	4.85	131.69	11.38	0.78%	3.28%	10.25%	23.99%	60.29%	1.42%	0.13%	0.44%	2.70%	1.35%
Cyprus	18428.24	6.27	92.05	5.71	0.17%	1.21%	6.59%	40.71%	51.33%	0.00%	0.03%	0.10%	1.08%	0.30%
Montenegro	18332.36	5.76	124.32	6.75	0.73%	5.11%	13.35%	28.18%	52.64%	0.00%	0.10%	0.80%	4.21%	1.63%
Estonia	17278.68	3.89	110.74	8.76	0.08%	0.61%	3.96%	16.46%	66.62%	12.27%	0.01%	0.05%	0.55%	0.14%
Moldova	17122.16	4.65	106.3	10.80	0.04%	1.19%	8.88%	23.27%	66.53%	0.08%	0.01%	0.08%	1.09%	0.14%
Georgia	16431.74	5.47	96.53	9.96	0.29%	1.56%	5.90%	22.21%	62.32%	7.72%	0.05%	0.11%	1.40%	0.45%
Iceland	16289.66	5.39	107.42	5.95	0.17%	1.43%	7.54%	44.81%	46.05%	0.00%	0.04%	0.16%	1.23%	0.37%
Armenia	16250.92	3.4	108.13	9.24	0.09%	0.63%	2.49%	11.96%	82.27%	2.57%	0.01%	0.03%	0.58%	0.14%
Kazakhstan	15454.61	4.02	78.51	5.98	0.00%	0.07%	1.60%	7.53%	35.43%	55.38%	0.00%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%
Azerbaijan	14875.88	3.17	104.13	6.71	0.00%	0.15%	2.49%	10.82%	46.23%	40.33%	0.00%	0.01%	0.14%	0.01%
Luxembourg	12319.07	1.79	69.04	2.21	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	1.67%	98.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Faroe Islands	12110.57	3.2	64.63	3.84	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	1.17%	12.41%	86.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Liechtenstein	12010.76	2.85	71.41	2.27	0.00%	0.01%	0.49%	5.67%	93.82%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%
Malta	11560.55	3.03	67.93	3.59	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	0.78%	8.48%	90.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Andorra	9159.83	1.41	54.06	1.87	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	2.60%	97.38%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
San Marino	8027.11	0.82	38.36	0.56	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.09%	99.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

And here are the main tournament simulations. Spain did even better than I expected (and the rankings are not even including its WC final win!);

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Semi Finalist Champion Spain 56.80% 25.05% 11.40% 4.21% 18.98% 15.00% 11.82% 36.05% Netherlands 46.93% 27.19% 14.93% 6.72% 27.23% 19.97% 12.59% 14.34% Germany 43.43% 28.43% 16.97% 8.33% 28.61% 19.69% 11.98% 11.58% England 34.56% 26.97% 18.36% 10.26% 27.84% 16.82% 9.42% 7.44% Croatia 17.73% 21.20% 21.12% 17.18% 22.65% 9.99% 4.16% 2.14% Italy 20.10% 22.49% 19.97% 14.83% 23.10% 11.41% 5.08% 2.99% Russia 14.81% 19.50% 20.56% 18.52% 20.56% 8.70% 3.37% 1.69% Portugal 28.20% 25.42% 18.81% 10.77% 25.37% 14.30% 7.98% 5.97% France 17.73% 21.89% 21.13% 15.79% 21.82% 10.23% 4.83% 2.75% Serbia 11.41% 15.84% 17.80% 16.45% 16.43% 6.82% 2.73% 1.27% Sweden 12.35% 16.43% 17.44% 14.74% 16.59% 7.40% 3.18% 1.62% Greece 4.80% 8.84% 12.43% 15.44% 9.31% 2.98% 1.02% 0.34% Ukraine 19.95% 25.84% 28.03% 26.19% 23.08% 12.40% 5.76% 4.53% Czech Republic 12.54% 16.02% 16.75% 14.77% 16.32% 7.39% 3.15% 1.71% Turkey 9.79% 14.09% 17.20% 17.88% 14.75% 5.89% 2.22% 1.02% Denmark 8.55% 11.73% 13.95% 13.60% 12.25% 5.12% 2.01% 0.91% Switzerland 4.99% 8.26% 10.98% 12.59% 8.58% 3.12% 1.10% 0.46% Slovakia 2.36% 5.06% 9.01% 15.83% 5.41% 1.55% 0.36% 0.11% Israel 2.35% 4.65% 8.08% 13.25% 5.00% 1.48% 0.39% 0.12% Romania 6.38% 10.58% 14.34% 17.76% 10.95% 4.03% 1.44% 0.54% Republic of Ireland 2.61% 5.40% 8.54% 12.82% 5.54% 1.76% 0.55% 0.16% Finland 0.19% 0.52% 1.24% 2.54% 0.56% 0.12% 0.03% 0.01% Slovenia 1.00% 2.25% 3.95% 6.89% 2.38% 0.67% 0.16% 0.05% Poland 13.06% 21.18% 29.21% 36.55% 20.38% 8.71% 3.37% 1.78% Norway 3.64% 6.09% 8.44% 10.60% 6.48% 2.18% 0.74% 0.32% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.66% 1.59% 3.33% 7.57% 1.73% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02% Bulgaria 1.41% 2.73% 4.78% 8.13% 3.00% 0.85% 0.24% 0.05% Northern Ireland 0.15% 0.47% 1.08% 2.63% 0.50% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01% Scotland 0.35% 0.92% 1.75% 3.26% 0.93% 0.25% 0.07% 0.01% Latvia 0.11% 0.35% 0.90% 2.70% 0.38% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% Hungary 0.06% 0.21% 0.53% 1.50% 0.23% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% Austria 0.07% 0.22% 0.52% 1.52% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% Belarus 0.29% 0.72% 1.81% 4.75% 0.81% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01% Belgium 0.07% 0.21% 0.55% 1.59% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% FYR Macedonia 0.29% 0.85% 1.91% 4.99% 0.93% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01% Lithuania 0.04% 0.12% 0.31% 0.91% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% Wales 0.18% 0.45% 1.12% 2.57% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00% Albania 0.02% 0.09% 0.27% 0.97% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% Cyprus 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.26% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Montenegro 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.19% 0.12% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% Estonia 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Moldova 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Georgia 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.37% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Iceland 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Armenia 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Azerbaijan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Luxembourg 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Faroe Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Malta 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Andorra 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Hello World

Hello everyone,

I've finished writing a program which easily simulate tournament based on the real format and some kind of rankings used to simulate a match.

Here I will publish simulations of various football tournament, and hopefully in the future other sports too.