Hello,
Today I will make an analysis of the impact of the new change in UEFA Euro Qualifing System, in which 4 teams would qualify from the Nations League Playoffs.
I included in the analysis the following scenarios:
All scenarios are done with one million simulations of the draw and the matches (Elo ratings as of 1.12.2017).
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
Here are the full results:
Today I will make an analysis of the impact of the new change in UEFA Euro Qualifing System, in which 4 teams would qualify from the Nations League Playoffs.
I included in the analysis the following scenarios:
- The real system of UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifing
- A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league above (lowest pot)
- A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league below (highest pot)
- A system in which there are 8 group of 7-8 teams, where top 3 teams in each group qualify.
- A system in which there are 9 group of 6-7 teams, where top 2 teams + 3 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify, and the other 3rd place teams go to playoffs (previous system).
- A system in which there are 11 group of 5 teams, where top 2 teams + 2 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify.
- In 99.8% of the simulations, at least 8 League A teams qualified through the main qualifing, making all league A teams qualify at least for the playoffs. For League B, in 87% of the simulation all teams qualifies at least for the playoffs.
- The main qualifying seeding is based on the Nations League final standing, and higher league means higher seeding.
All scenarios are done with one million simulations of the draw and the matches (Elo ratings as of 1.12.2017).
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
Here are the full results:
| Team | League | ELO | Q-normal | Q-up | Q-down | Q-8-groups | Q_9-groups | Q_11-groups |
| Germany | A | 2098.00 | 99.8% | 99.6% | 99.9% | 99.9% | 99.8% | |
| Spain | A | 2015.00 | 99.2% | 98.7% | 99.5% | 99.6% | 99.2% | |
| Portugal | A | 1982.00 | 98.7% | 97.9% | 99.2% | 99.3% | 98.7% | |
| France | A | 1959.00 | 98.0% | 96.6% | 98.7% | 99.0% | 98.2% | |
| Italy | A | 1920.00 | 96.5% | 94.3% | 97.7% | 98.1% | 96.8% | |
| Belgium | A | 1910.00 | 96.0% | 94.1% | 97.2% | 97.7% | 96.4% | |
| England | A | 1909.00 | 96.0% | 94.2% | 97.3% | 97.7% | 96.5% | |
| Netherlands | A | 1854.00 | 91.7% | 88.9% | 92.4% | 93.1% | 89.5% | |
| Switzerland | A | 1845.00 | 90.9% | 86.9% | 93.5% | 94.0% | 92.3% | |
| Poland | A | 1835.00 | 89.6% | 86.2% | 90.6% | 93.3% | 91.6% | |
| Croatia | A | 1833.00 | 89.2% | 86.0% | 90.4% | 91.0% | 91.3% | |
| Iceland | A | 1822.00 | 88.0% | 84.0% | 89.2% | 89.7% | 90.2% | |
| Denmark | B | 1781.00 | 77.1% | 82.2% | 72.2% | 81.3% | 80.3% | 79.9% |
| Sweden | B | 1771.00 | 75.6% | 81.0% | 70.8% | 79.6% | 82.0% | 78.4% |
| Wales | B | 1751.00 | 71.2% | 77.5% | 65.0% | 78.0% | 78.6% | 74.8% |
| Republic of Ireland | B | 1750.00 | 71.0% | 77.5% | 65.2% | 75.7% | 74.6% | 74.5% |
| Slovakia | B | 1732.00 | 67.1% | 72.9% | 61.0% | 74.7% | 74.6% | 71.2% |
| Turkey | B | 1721.00 | 64.4% | 71.2% | 57.7% | 69.6% | 66.9% | 60.2% |
| Ukraine | B | 1709.00 | 61.6% | 68.9% | 54.5% | 65.4% | 69.1% | 66.5% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1706.00 | 61.1% | 67.4% | 53.8% | 65.9% | 64.3% | 66.1% |
| Russia | B | 1680.00 | 54.3% | 62.0% | 46.0% | 62.8% | 62.0% | 60.3% |
| Austria | B | 1678.00 | 53.6% | 61.0% | 45.8% | 62.2% | 61.9% | 60.0% |
| Czech Republic | B | 1660.00 | 49.1% | 56.7% | 41.7% | 54.6% | 51.6% | 46.5% |
| Northern Ireland | B | 1654.00 | 47.6% | 55.5% | 39.8% | 53.2% | 50.4% | 54.6% |
| Serbia | C | 1737.00 | 62.6% | 67.9% | 78.4% | 64.1% | 61.5% | 63.7% |
| Scotland | C | 1708.00 | 55.2% | 61.8% | 72.1% | 57.2% | 63.2% | 57.7% |
| Romania | C | 1669.00 | 44.9% | 51.2% | 64.2% | 47.2% | 53.0% | 48.4% |
| Greece | C | 1647.00 | 38.7% | 45.7% | 59.0% | 41.9% | 38.5% | 43.2% |
| Slovenia | C | 1618.00 | 32.0% | 38.4% | 52.1% | 34.4% | 31.1% | 36.8% |
| Hungary | C | 1593.00 | 26.2% | 33.2% | 44.9% | 29.1% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| Bulgaria | C | 1590.00 | 24.2% | 32.3% | 44.6% | 21.9% | 24.2% | 22.2% |
| Montenegro | C | 1590.00 | 24.3% | 32.1% | 44.7% | 22.2% | 24.4% | 30.8% |
| Norway | C | 1578.00 | 23.1% | 30.3% | 42.8% | 25.5% | 22.2% | 28.4% |
| Albania | C | 1573.00 | 21.8% | 28.7% | 40.7% | 24.5% | 21.2% | 27.3% |
| Finland | C | 1567.00 | 19.7% | 28.5% | 39.5% | 17.8% | 19.7% | 18.7% |
| Israel | C | 1514.00 | 11.5% | 17.0% | 28.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% |
| Estonia | C | 1476.00 | 6.7% | 12.7% | 21.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.6% |
| Cyprus | C | 1399.00 | 2.2% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% |
| Lithuania | C | 1385.00 | 1.8% | 4.2% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% |
| Belarus | D | 1489.00 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | |
| Macedonia | D | 1484.00 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% | |
| Georgia | D | 1457.00 | 20.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 6.0% | |
| Armenia | D | 1439.00 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | |
| Azerbaijan | D | 1382.00 | 10.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | |
| Latvia | D | 1355.00 | 6.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| Kosovo | D | 1351.00 | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| Kazakhstan | D | 1320.00 | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| Moldova | D | 1310.00 | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| Luxembourg | D | 1285.00 | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| Faroe Islands | D | 1258.00 | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| Malta | D | 1204.00 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| Liechtenstein | D | 1128.00 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Gibraltar | D | 1049.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Andorra | D | 993.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| San Marino | D | 835.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
