As always, the group stage draw has winners and losers.
Clearly the group of life is group G, where all teams raised there chances of qualifying
Turkey is also a winner, and it actually the second highest ranked team in its group according to ELO (although Iceland still has higher chances of qualifying including the playoffs).
Northern Ireland decreased their chances the most by drawing Germany from Pot 2.
Group F is the group of death, with 4 teams capable of qualifying and all teams lowering their chances of qualifying.
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
Summary by group:
Here are the results for 100K simulations:
Clearly the group of life is group G, where all teams raised there chances of qualifying
Turkey is also a winner, and it actually the second highest ranked team in its group according to ELO (although Iceland still has higher chances of qualifying including the playoffs).
Northern Ireland decreased their chances the most by drawing Germany from Pot 2.
Group F is the group of death, with 4 teams capable of qualifying and all teams lowering their chances of qualifying.
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
Summary by group:
| Group | Difference |
| A | 12.56% |
| B | -9.48% |
| C | -15.12% |
| D | -11.83% |
| E | -8.50% |
| F | -28.87% |
| G | 35.85% |
| H | 19.78% |
| I | 1.64% |
| J | 3.97% |
Here are the results for 100K simulations:
| Team | Group | ELO | Points | Q-normal | Q-PO | Q_Total | Before_Draw | Difference |
| Turkey | H | 1691 | 17.55 | 50.19% | 8.09% | 58.27% | 42.96% | 15.31% |
| Austria | G | 1765 | 19.67 | 79.68% | 5.67% | 85.35% | 72.77% | 12.57% |
| Slovenia | G | 1561 | 13.37 | 16.74% | 0.00% | 16.74% | 8.84% | 7.90% |
| Poland | G | 1752 | 19.31 | 76.68% | 6.96% | 83.63% | 76.24% | 7.40% |
| Montenegro | A | 1589 | 8.75 | 16.48% | 0.01% | 16.49% | 11.49% | 5.00% |
| Israel | G | 1561 | 13.37 | 16.69% | 7.69% | 24.38% | 19.80% | 4.59% |
| Scotland | I | 1721 | 18.71 | 43.91% | 21.27% | 65.18% | 61.17% | 4.00% |
| Albania | H | 1515 | 13.00 | 8.70% | 0.04% | 8.74% | 5.18% | 3.56% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | J | 1795 | 19.80 | 74.05% | 9.54% | 83.58% | 80.19% | 3.40% |
| Macedonia | G | 1519 | 12.05 | 9.97% | 27.74% | 37.72% | 34.48% | 3.23% |
| Bulgaria | A | 1629 | 9.70 | 24.04% | 12.19% | 36.23% | 33.57% | 2.66% |
| Serbia | B | 1807 | 15.11 | 60.75% | 16.28% | 77.03% | 74.86% | 2.17% |
| Germany | C | 1938 | 16.95 | 93.95% | 3.02% | 96.98% | 94.88% | 2.09% |
| Kosovo | A | 1496 | 6.56 | 5.70% | 16.99% | 22.69% | 20.65% | 2.04% |
| Czech Republic | A | 1729 | 12.30 | 56.82% | 9.47% | 66.29% | 64.64% | 1.65% |
| Slovakia | E | 1748 | 12.59 | 46.08% | 12.66% | 58.74% | 57.21% | 1.53% |
| Greece | J | 1613 | 14.64 | 16.05% | 0.36% | 16.42% | 15.02% | 1.40% |
| Italy | J | 1889 | 22.33 | 90.82% | 4.22% | 95.04% | 93.74% | 1.30% |
| England | A | 1960 | 18.39 | 96.97% | 1.66% | 98.62% | 97.41% | 1.21% |
| Iceland | H | 1668 | 16.93 | 41.01% | 12.02% | 53.02% | 52.56% | 0.46% |
| Netherlands | C | 1985 | 17.99 | 96.71% | 1.91% | 98.62% | 98.20% | 0.41% |
| Moldova | H | 1326 | 8.11 | 0.47% | 0.00% | 0.47% | 0.23% | 0.24% |
| France | H | 2094 | 26.71 | 99.64% | 0.24% | 99.88% | 99.67% | 0.21% |
| Latvia | G | 1298 | 5.74 | 0.25% | 0.00% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.16% |
| Belgium | I | 2036 | 25.67 | 97.95% | 1.32% | 99.27% | 99.18% | 0.09% |
| Kazakhstan | I | 1330 | 9.41 | 0.29% | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| San Marino | I | 836 | 1.44 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Gibraltar | D | 1103 | 1.49 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Andorra | H | 1081 | 3.14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Liechtenstein | J | 1138 | 2.95 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Malta | F | 1178 | 3.80 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.01% |
| Faroe Islands | F | 1255 | 5.07 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.06% | -0.06% |
| Cyprus | I | 1415 | 11.23 | 1.16% | 0.00% | 1.16% | 1.30% | -0.14% |
| Luxembourg | B | 1348 | 4.58 | 0.16% | 1.47% | 1.63% | 1.84% | -0.20% |
| Lithuania | B | 1337 | 4.38 | 0.15% | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.39% | -0.25% |
| Azerbaijan | E | 1403 | 4.23 | 0.61% | 0.01% | 0.62% | 0.90% | -0.28% |
| Armenia | J | 1449 | 9.96 | 1.59% | 0.23% | 1.82% | 2.19% | -0.37% |
| Denmark | D | 1898 | 16.72 | 83.33% | 7.84% | 91.17% | 91.97% | -0.80% |
| Croatia | E | 1925 | 17.03 | 89.50% | 5.44% | 94.94% | 95.85% | -0.90% |
| Hungary | E | 1611 | 9.11 | 13.06% | 7.94% | 21.00% | 22.41% | -1.41% |
| Portugal | B | 1959 | 18.25 | 90.25% | 5.52% | 95.77% | 97.36% | -1.59% |
| Spain | F | 2012 | 23.66 | 92.41% | 4.80% | 97.21% | 98.81% | -1.60% |
| Georgia | D | 1547 | 8.94 | 4.33% | 33.63% | 37.95% | 39.59% | -1.64% |
| Finland | J | 1622 | 14.89 | 17.49% | 14.61% | 32.10% | 33.86% | -1.75% |
| Switzerland | D | 1922 | 17.23 | 87.04% | 6.85% | 93.89% | 95.82% | -1.94% |
| Estonia | C | 1468 | 5.51 | 0.76% | 0.00% | 0.76% | 2.85% | -2.10% |
| Russia | I | 1753 | 19.51 | 56.70% | 11.93% | 68.63% | 70.99% | -2.36% |
| Belarus | C | 1539 | 6.97 | 2.14% | 19.93% | 22.07% | 25.33% | -3.26% |
| Wales | E | 1760 | 12.91 | 50.74% | 13.22% | 63.96% | 71.39% | -7.43% |
| Republic of Ireland | D | 1705 | 12.43 | 25.30% | 12.05% | 37.36% | 44.82% | -7.46% |
| Sweden | F | 1852 | 19.86 | 63.28% | 15.06% | 78.34% | 87.01% | -8.67% |
| Romania | F | 1753 | 17.44 | 30.08% | 7.31% | 37.39% | 46.17% | -8.78% |
| Ukraine | B | 1772 | 14.34 | 48.69% | 17.55% | 66.24% | 75.85% | -9.61% |
| Norway | F | 1679 | 15.52 | 14.22% | 27.07% | 41.29% | 51.04% | -9.75% |
| Northern Ireland | C | 1623 | 8.87 | 6.44% | 8.22% | 14.66% | 26.93% | -12.27% |
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