Well, I must admit that this set of simulations is probably less accurate that the EURO one...
The ranking used for simulations is a manipulation of UEFA coefficients (weighted average of the last 5 years, with weights (1,2,3,4,5)).
The way I used the rankings is making the points percentage (2 points for win) of the home team
1.3*home coefficients/away coefficients. 1.3 is the number found most accurate when I tested previous results.
I'm counting on Voros (see links) to publish club rankings and then I will make an update.
| Group | Team | Coefficients | Points | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Qualifing | 2nd Round | Quarter | Semi | Finalist | Champion |
| 1 | Internazionale | 17.76 | 11.89 | 53.10% | 36.80% | 9.38% | 0.73% | 89.90% | 35.59% | 25.54% | 14.54% | 7.66% | 6.57% |
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 16.28 | 11.24 | 41.71% | 44.23% | 12.64% | 1.42% | 85.94% | 39.79% | 23.83% | 12.17% | 5.93% | 4.22% |
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6.45 | 6.68 | 4.92% | 16.67% | 57.42% | 20.99% | 21.59% | 16.13% | 4.21% | 0.99% | 0.22% | 0.06% |
| 1 | FC Twente Enschede | 2.87 | 3.52 | 0.26% | 2.31% | 20.57% | 76.86% | 2.57% | 2.31% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 18.39 | 12.63 | 68.75% | 25.26% | 5.42% | 0.57% | 94.01% | 36.89% | 29.34% | 15.40% | 7.43% | 4.96% |
| 2 | Benfica | 13.18 | 10.07 | 26.18% | 50.59% | 18.66% | 4.58% | 76.77% | 50.02% | 17.85% | 6.22% | 1.99% | 0.68% |
| 2 | Schalke 04 | 6.26 | 6.43 | 4.44% | 18.60% | 50.03% | 26.92% | 23.05% | 18.81% | 3.54% | 0.60% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel-Aviv | 3.51 | 4.10 | 0.63% | 5.55% | 25.89% | 67.93% | 6.18% | 5.54% | 0.58% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 22.43 | 14.43 | 78.93% | 18.67% | 2.40% | 0.00% | 97.60% | 23.10% | 25.76% | 18.23% | 11.78% | 18.72% |
| 3 | Valencia | 13.62 | 10.81 | 17.93% | 58.09% | 23.87% | 0.11% | 76.02% | 49.08% | 17.27% | 6.53% | 2.26% | 0.88% |
| 3 | Glasgow Rangers | 7.46 | 8.12 | 3.14% | 23.23% | 72.75% | 0.88% | 26.37% | 21.57% | 3.89% | 0.77% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 0.73 | 0.89 | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.98% | 99.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 22.84 | 14.48 | 89.46% | 9.88% | 0.63% | 0.03% | 99.34% | 22.38% | 26.30% | 18.57% | 11.97% | 20.12% |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 11.67 | 9.10 | 9.31% | 62.89% | 21.41% | 6.39% | 72.20% | 53.84% | 13.14% | 3.83% | 1.10% | 0.30% |
| 4 | FC København | 5.46 | 5.72 | 0.99% | 18.61% | 47.32% | 33.09% | 19.59% | 17.01% | 2.19% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Rubin Kazan | 3.74 | 4.21 | 0.24% | 8.62% | 30.64% | 60.49% | 8.87% | 8.06% | 0.73% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Bayern München | 20.94 | 13.81 | 73.02% | 24.87% | 2.09% | 0.03% | 97.89% | 29.64% | 27.93% | 17.72% | 10.53% | 12.06% |
| 5 | AS Roma | 14.96 | 11.15 | 25.42% | 61.37% | 12.80% | 0.41% | 86.79% | 53.43% | 20.53% | 8.20% | 3.16% | 1.47% |
| 5 | FC Basel | 5.78 | 6.70 | 1.55% | 13.34% | 74.18% | 10.93% | 14.89% | 12.79% | 1.82% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 5 | CFR Cluj | 1.76 | 2.20 | 0.01% | 0.42% | 10.94% | 88.63% | 0.43% | 0.42% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Chelsea | 21.71 | 14.44 | 79.62% | 19.39% | 0.99% | 0.00% | 99.01% | 27.27% | 29.01% | 18.88% | 11.01% | 12.83% |
| 6 | Olympique Marseille | 14.26 | 11.01 | 19.51% | 67.74% | 12.39% | 0.37% | 87.25% | 60.59% | 18.15% | 6.10% | 1.80% | 0.60% |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 5.51 | 6.53 | 0.87% | 12.54% | 75.92% | 10.68% | 13.40% | 12.05% | 1.20% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | MSK Zilina | 1.63 | 2.04 | 0.00% | 0.34% | 10.71% | 88.95% | 0.34% | 0.33% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | AC Milan | 16.32 | 11.88 | 47.52% | 36.45% | 15.80% | 0.23% | 83.97% | 38.89% | 24.59% | 12.01% | 5.24% | 3.24% |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 15.70 | 11.62 | 42.77% | 39.17% | 17.76% | 0.29% | 81.94% | 40.56% | 23.65% | 10.80% | 4.45% | 2.49% |
| 7 | Ajax | 8.36 | 8.37 | 9.71% | 24.27% | 63.64% | 2.38% | 33.98% | 25.48% | 6.59% | 1.54% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 7 | AJ Auxerre | 1.44 | 1.80 | 0.00% | 0.11% | 2.80% | 97.10% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Arsenal | 20.36 | 13.66 | 69.78% | 27.15% | 3.05% | 0.03% | 96.93% | 30.97% | 29.05% | 17.66% | 9.79% | 9.45% |
| 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 14.96 | 11.32 | 27.99% | 57.88% | 13.85% | 0.28% | 85.87% | 52.65% | 20.91% | 8.04% | 3.03% | 1.25% |
| 8 | Sporting Braga | 6.20 | 7.16 | 2.24% | 14.82% | 77.67% | 5.27% | 17.06% | 14.57% | 2.11% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Partizan Belgrade | 1.44 | 1.80 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 5.43% | 94.43% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Barcelona are the favorites and then Manchester United 2nd.
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