UEFA Team and Country 2012-13 Rankings Simulations

The battle for 5th seems really close, but Portugal is favorite to finish on top:
The battles for 13th and 15th are also fierce.

Based on 100K Simulations:

Rank	Country	Prediction
1	Spain	89.424
2	England	84.065
3	Germany	77.516
4	Italy	63.764
5	Portugal	60.563
6	France	60.421
7	Ukraine	50.355
8	Russia	46.297
9	Netherlands	45.953
10	Greece	35.307
11	Belgium	35.160
12	Turkey	29.817
13	Cyprus	27.036
14	Switzerland	26.616
15	Denmark	26.261
16	Austria	26.177
17	Israel	23.799
18	Czech Republic	21.727
19	Romania	21.393
20	Poland	20.750
21	Croatia	20.469
22	Belarus	20.375
23	Sweden	15.890
24	Serbia	15.187
25	Norway	14.504
26	Slovakia	14.208
27	Scotland	13.793
28	Bulgaria	12.250
29	Hungary	11.631
30	Slovenia	9.705
31	Georgia	9.166
32	Finland	8.508
33	Azerbaijan	8.430
34	Bosnia-Herzegovina	7.833
35	Moldova	7.666
36	Ireland	7.375
37	Lithuania	6.500
38	Kazakhstan	5.958
39	Latvia	5.791
40	Iceland	5.416
41	Montenegro	5.250
41	Macedonia	5.250
43	Albania	4.166
44	Malta	3.958
45	Liechtenstein	3.500
46	Luxembourg	3.375
47	Northern Ireland	3.083
48	Wales	2.583
49	Estonia	2.208
50	Armenia	1.750
51	Faroe Islands	1.583
52	San Marino	0.666
53	Andorra	0.500

Team ranking (based on another 100K simulations):

Rank	Team	Country	Prediction
1	FC Barcelona	Esp	163.117
2	Real Madrid	Esp	137.545
3	Manchester United	Eng	137.242
4	Bayern München	Ger	136.748
5	Chelsea	Eng	131.185
6	Arsenal	Eng	114.697
7	FC Porto	Por	107.099
8	Atlético Madrid	Esp	106.897
9	Internazionale	Ita	104.101
10	Valencia	Esp	101.783
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	Ukr	97.307
12	Olympique Lyon	Fra	94.789
13	AC Milan	Ita	94.686
14	Benfica	Por	94.107
15	Olympique Marseille	Fra	84.191
16	Manchester City	Eng	83.168
17	Schalke 04	Ger	81.758
18	Liverpool	Eng	80.004
19	CSKA Moscow	Rus	77.759
20	Sporting CP Lisbon	Por	76.483
21	Dinamo Kiev	Ukr	76.002
22	Zenit St. Petersburg	Rus	74.838
23	Sporting Braga	Por	71.819
24	PSV Eindhoven	Ned	69.640
25	Villarreal	Esp	67.884
26	Tottenham Hotspur	Eng	67.229
27	Juventus	Ita	66.813
28	Ajax	Ned	65.680
29	VfB Stuttgart	Ger	63.049
30	FC Twente Enschede	Ned	62.844
31	Paris Saint-Germain	Fra	62.646
32	Olympiakos Piraeus	Gre	61.930
33	Metalist Kharkiv	Ukr	61.134
34	Werder Bremen	Ger	60.503
35	Athletic Bilbao	Esp	59.823
36	Girondins Bordeaux	Fra	57.204
37	Bayer Leverkusen	Ger	57.071
38	Lille OSC	Fra	56.178
39	Hamburger SV	Ger	55.503
40	Sevilla	Esp	55.384
41	AS Roma	Ita	53.253
42	FC Basel	Sui	52.520
43	Napoli	Ita	52.039
44	Rubin Kazan	Rus	51.047
45	Borussia Dortmund	Ger	49.454
46	FC København	Den	48.433
47	Anderlecht	Bel	48.406
48	Udinese	Ita	48.097
49	Spartak Moscow	Rus	46.332
50	Standard Liège	Bel	46.032
51	Fulham FC	Eng	45.813
52	Panathinaikos	Gre	45.217
53	Galatasaray	Tur	44.123
54	Fiorentina	Ita	42.753
55	Hannover 96	Ger	42.395
56	VfL Wolfsburg	Ger	41.503
57	Club Brugge	Bel	40.491
58	AZ Alkmaar	Ned	39.690
59	BATE Borisov	Bls	37.094
60	APOEL Nicosia	Cyp	35.407
61	Besiktas	Tur	33.963
62	Lazio Roma	Ita	33.472
63	Málaga CF	Esp	33.448
64	Hapoel Tel-Aviv	Isr	31.987
65	Fenerbahçe	Tur	31.404
66	Celtic	Sco	30.275
67	Dinamo Zagreb	Cro	29.649
68	Steaua Bucuresti	Rom	29.244
69	PAOK Thessaloniki	Gre	29.061
70	Hertha BSC	Ger	28.503
71	Levante UD	Esp	28.266
72	FC Salzburg	Aut	28.235
73	CFR Cluj	Rom	28.181
74	Aston Villa	Eng	27.813
75	Newcastle United	Eng	27.788
76	Sparta Praha	Cze	27.435
77	AS Saint-Étienne	Fra	27.084
78	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Ger	26.458
79	Montpellier	Fra	26.051
80	Racing Santander	Esp	25.884
81	Everton	Eng	25.813
82	Sampdoria	Ita	25.753
83	Deportivo La Coruña	Esp	24.884
84	Stoke City	Eng	24.813
85	Racing Genk	Bel	24.054
86	Birmingham City	Eng	23.813
87	Lech Poznan	Pol	23.650
88	Getafe	Esp	22.884
89	Portsmouth FC	Eng	22.813
90	Glasgow Rangers	Sco	22.258
91	Viktoria Plzen	Cze	21.795
92	Young Boys	Sui	21.465
93	Lokomotiv Moscow	Rus	20.759
94	Trabzonspor	Tur	20.463
95	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	Ukr	19.882
96	Partizan Belgrade	Srb	19.831
97	AaB Aalborg	Den	19.752
98	Heerenveen	Ned	19.690
99	AS Nancy Lorraine	Fra	19.084
100	Maritimo Funchal	Por	19.080
101	Palermo	Ita	18.753
102	AJ Auxerre	Fra	18.084
103	Spain	Esp	17.884
104	Rosenborg BK	Nor	17.844
105	Genoa	Ita	17.753
106	Anzhi Makhachkala	Rus	17.660
107	Nacional Funchal	Por	17.612
108	Anorthosis Famagusta	Cyp	17.407
109	Stade Rennais	Fra	17.084
109	Toulouse FC	Fra	17.084
111	AEK Athens	Gre	17.061
112	England	Eng	16.813
113	Unirea Urziceni	Rom	16.778
114	Austria Wien	Aut	16.735
115	Rapid Wien	Aut	16.510
116	FSV Mainz 05	Ger	16.503
117	FC Zürich	Sui	16.323
118	Académica Coimbra	Por	16.206
119	NEC Nijmegen	Ned	16.190
120	MSK Zilina	Svk	15.841
121	FC Vaslui	Rom	15.778
122	Germany	Ger	15.503
123	Wisla Kraków	Pol	15.150
124	Aris Thessaloniki	Gre	15.061
125	Vitória Guimarães	Por	14.612
126	FC Nordsjælland	Den	14.385
127	Feyenoord	Ned	14.190
127	FC Utrecht	Ned	14.190
129	AA Gent	Bel	14.032
130	Bursaspor	Tur	13.963
131	Maccabi Haifa	Isr	13.760
132	Legia Warsaw	Pol	13.650
133	FC Sochaux-Montbéliard	Fra	13.584
133	En Avant Guingamp	Fra	13.584
135	Vorskla Poltava	Ukr	13.570
135	Karpaty Lviv	Ukr	13.570
137	Dinamo Bucuresti	Rom	13.278
138	Paços de Ferreira	Por	13.112
138	Vitória Setúbal	Por	13.112
140	Italy	Ita	12.753
141	OB Odense	Den	12.752
142	Metalurg Donetsk	Ukr	12.570
143	Dinamo Moscow	Rus	12.259
144	Portugal	Por	12.112
145	France	Fra	12.084
146	Levski Sofia	Bul	11.950
147	Sturm Graz	Aut	11.735
148	Tavria Simferopol	Ukr	11.570
149	Sheriff Tiraspol	Mol	11.533
150	Slavia Praha	Cze	11.345
151	Arsenal Kiev	Ukr	11.070
152	Alania Vladikavkaz	Rus	10.759
152	Sibir Novosibirsk	Rus	10.759
152	Amkar Perm	Rus	10.759
155	NAC Breda	Ned	10.690
156	Omonia Nicosia	Cyp	10.407
157	Krylia Sovetov Samara	Rus	10.259
157	FK Moscow	Rus	10.259
159	NK Maribor	Slo	10.214
160	Vitesse Arnhem	Ned	10.190
160	ADO Den Haag	Ned	10.190
162	Ukraine	Ukr	10.070
163	DVSC Debrecen	Hun	9.826
164	FC Timisoara	Rom	9.778
165	AEK Larnaca	Cyp	9.407
166	AEL Limassol	Cyp	9.361
167	Russia	Rus	9.259
168	Brøndby IF	Den	9.252
169	Netherlands	Ned	9.190
170	Hajduk Split	Cro	9.093
171	Helsingborg IF	Swe	9.069
172	Bnei Yehuda	Isr	8.760
173	Molde FK	Nor	8.738
174	AIK Stockholm	Swe	8.736
175	Atromitos FC	Gre	8.561
176	Red Star Belgrade	Srb	8.537
177	KSC Lokeren	Bel	8.532
178	Hapoel Kiryat Shmona	Isr	8.459
179	CSKA Sofia	Bul	8.450
180	Slovan Bratislava	Svk	8.341
181	FC Sion	Sui	8.323
182	Rapid Bucuresti	Rom	8.278
182	Otelul Galati	Rom	8.278
184	Maccabi Tel-Aviv	Isr	8.260
185	IF Elfsborg	Swe	8.178
185	Kalmar FF	Swe	8.178
187	Asteras Tripolis	Gre	8.061
187	Olympiakos Volou	Gre	8.061
189	KVC Westerlo	Bel	8.032
189	Cercle Brugge	Bel	8.032
191	Litex Lovech	Bul	7.950
192	FC Luzern	Sui	7.823
193	FC Midtjylland	Den	7.752
194	SV Ried	Aut	7.735
195	AE Larissa	Gre	7.561
196	FC Fehérvár	Hun	7.543
197	Sivasspor	Tur	7.463
198	Slovan Liberec	Cze	7.345
199	Lausanne Sports	Sui	7.323
200	Hearts FC	Sco	7.258
201	Randers FC	Den	7.252
202	Slask Wroclaw	Pol	7.150
203	Greece	Gre	7.061
204	Belgium	Bel	7.032
205	Eskisehirspor	Tur	6.963
205	Gaziantepspor	Tur	6.963
205	Kayserispor	Tur	6.963
208	FC Thun	Sui	6.823
208	Grasshoppers Zürich	Sui	6.823
210	Motherwell	Sco	6.758
211	AC Horsens	Den	6.752
212	HJK Helsinki	Fin	6.701
213	FK Ventspils	Lat	6.658
214	Apollon Limassol	Cyp	6.407
214	APOP Kinyras Peyias	Cyp	6.407
216	Tromsø IL	Nor	6.401
216	Aalesunds FK	Nor	6.401
218	Mladá Boleslav	Cze	6.345
218	FK Jablonec	Cze	6.345
218	Baník Ostrava	Cze	6.345
221	Servette FC Genève	Sui	6.323
222	Ekranas Panevezys	Lit	6.300
223	Maccabi Netanya	Isr	6.260
224	Admira Wacker	Aut	6.235
225	FK Aktobe	Kaz	6.191
226	Ruch Chorzow	Pol	6.150
227	Slaven Koprivnica	Cro	6.093
228	FC Gomel	Bls	6.075
228	Dinamo Minsk	Bls	6.075
230	St. Patrick's Athletic	Irl	5.975
231	Turkey	Tur	5.963
232	Sigma Olomouc	Cze	5.845
232	FK Teplice	Cze	5.845
234	Spartak Trnava	Svk	5.841
235	FC Zestafoni	Geo	5.833
236	Gaz Metan Medias	Rom	5.778
237	Dundee United	Sco	5.758
238	AGF Aarhus	Den	5.752
239	Garabag Agdam	Azb	5.686
240	Neftchi Baku	Azb	5.600
241	Dnepr Mogilev	Bls	5.575
242	Vojvodina Novi Sad	Srb	5.537
243	Shamrock Rovers	Irl	5.475
244	Cyprus	Cyp	5.407
245	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Pol	5.400
246	Dinamo Tbilisi	Geo	5.333
247	Switzerland	Sui	5.323
248	Denmark	Den	5.252
249	Austria	Aut	5.235
250	Malmö FF	Swe	5.178
250	IFK Göteborg	Swe	5.178
252	Stabæk IF	Nor	5.151
253	Polonia Warsaw	Pol	5.150
254	NK Varazdin	Cro	5.093
254	RNK Split	Cro	5.093
254	NK Rijeka	Cro	5.093
257	Naftan Novopolotsk	Bls	5.075
257	Shakhtior Saligorsk	Bls	5.075
259	FK Sarajevo	Bos	5.066
260	Vålerengen IF	Nor	4.901
260	SK Brann Bergen	Nor	4.901
262	Olimpi Rustavi	Geo	4.833
263	Israel	Isr	4.760
264	NK Osijek	Cro	4.593
264	NK Sibenik	Cro	4.593
264	Cibalia Vinkovci	Cro	4.593
267	KR Reykjavik	Isl	4.583
268	FK Minsk	Bls	4.575
268	Torpedo Zhodino	Bls	4.575
268	MTZ-Ripo Minsk	Bls	4.575
271	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	Bos	4.566
272	Rabotnicki Skopje	Mac	4.550
273	Cherno More Varna	Bul	4.450
274	F91 Dudelange	Lux	4.425
275	Czech Republic	Cze	4.345
276	FK Senica	Svk	4.341
276	MFK Kosice	Svk	4.341
278	Romania	Rom	4.278
279	Bohemians Dublin	Irl	4.225
280	Inter Turku	Fin	4.201
281	BK Häcken	Swe	4.178
282	Poland	Pol	4.150
283	Croatia	Cro	4.093
284	FH Hafnarfjardar	Isl	4.083
285	Belarus	Bls	4.075
286	OFK Belgrade	Srb	4.037
286	Spartak Zlatibor Voda	Srb	4.037
286	FK Sevojno	Srb	4.037
289	Dacia Chisinau	Mol	4.033
290	Levadia Tallinn	Est	3.941
291	FK Baku	Azb	3.936
292	Strømsgodset IF	Nor	3.901
292	Fredrikstad FK	Nor	3.901
294	Linfield Belfast	Nir	3.866
295	Honvéd Budapest	Hun	3.826
295	ETO Györ	Hun	3.826
297	Valletta FC	Mlt	3.791
298	The New Saints	Wal	3.766
299	Hibernian	Sco	3.758
299	Aberdeen	Sco	3.758
301	Honka Espoo	Fin	3.701
302	Olimpija Ljubljana	Slo	3.690
303	Örebro SK	Swe	3.678
303	Gefle IF	Swe	3.678
305	Differdange 03	Lux	3.675
306	Metalurgs Liepaja	Lat	3.658
307	Pyunik Yerevan	Arm	3.600
308	Zrinjski Mostar	Bos	3.566
309	Buducnost Podgorica	Mon	3.550
309	Mogren Budva	Mon	3.550
311	FK Rad Belgrade	Srb	3.537
312	Ludogorets Razgrad	Bul	3.450
312	Lokomotiv Sofia	Bul	3.450
312	FC Beroe Stara Zagora	Bul	3.450
315	Mura Murska Sobota	Slo	3.440
316	Inter Baku	Azb	3.436
317	Skonto Riga	Lat	3.408
318	Dukla Banska Bystrica	Svk	3.341
319	Dila Gori	Geo	3.333
319	SK Tirana	Alb	3.333
319	Georgia Tbilisi	Geo	3.333
322	Paksi FC	Hun	3.326
323	Siroki Brijeg	Bos	3.316
323	FK Borac Banja Luka	Bos	3.316
325	Suduva Marijampole	Lit	3.300
326	FK Jagodina	Srb	3.287
327	Bangor City	Wal	3.266
328	St. Johnstone	Sco	3.258
328	Falkirk FC	Sco	3.258
330	Sligo Rovers	Irl	3.225
331	KuPS Kuopio	Fin	3.201
331	MyPa-47	Fin	3.201
333	FC Vaduz	Lie	3.200
334	Flora Tallinn	Est	3.191
335	NK Koper	Slo	3.190
336	Sweden	Swe	3.178
337	FC Nitra	Svk	3.091
338	Zeta Golubovci	Mon	3.050
338	Renova Dzepciste	Mac	3.050
340	Serbia	Srb	3.037
341	Iskra-Stal Ribnita	Mol	3.033
342	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Bul	2.950
343	Shakhtyor Karaganda	Kaz	2.941
343	Tobol Kustanai	Kaz	2.941
345	Nova Gorica	Slo	2.940
345	IB Ljubljana	Slo	2.940
347	Khazar Lenkoran	Azb	2.936
348	Norway	Nor	2.901
349	Slovakia	Svk	2.841
350	Skënderbeu Korçë	Alb	2.833
351	Ferencváros	Hun	2.826
351	Kecskeméti TE	Hun	2.826
351	Haladás Szombathely	Hun	2.826
351	Újpest TE	Hun	2.826
355	HB Torshavn	Far	2.816
356	Rudar Pljevlja	Mon	2.800
357	Scotland	Sco	2.758
358	TPS Turku	Fin	2.701
358	FC Lahti	Fin	2.701
360	Breidablik	Isl	2.583
361	MTK Budapest	Hun	2.576
361	Zalaegerszeg TE	Hun	2.576
363	Slavija Sarajevo	Bos	2.566
364	Birkirkara	Mlt	2.541
365	Zimbru Chisinau	Mol	2.533
366	Derry City	Irl	2.475
367	Bulgaria	Bul	2.450
368	NK Domzale	Slo	2.440
368	Rudar Velenje	Slo	2.440
370	Glentoran	Nir	2.366
371	Gagra Tbilisi	Geo	2.333
372	Hungary	Hun	2.326
373	EB Streymur	Far	2.316
374	Metalurg Skopje	Mac	2.300
374	Shkendija Tetovo	Mac	2.300
374	FK Tauras	Lit	2.300
374	Vetra Vilnius	Lit	2.300
378	Milsami Orhei	Mol	2.283
379	JJK Jyväskylä	Fin	2.201
380	NK Celje	Slo	2.190
381	Cliftonville	Nir	2.116
382	Sant Julià	And	2.100
383	Torpedo Kutaisi	Geo	2.083
383	KS Flamurtari Vlorë	Alb	2.083
383	Dinamo Tirana	Alb	2.083
386	Vardar Skopje	Mac	2.050
386	FK Siauliai	Lit	2.050
386	OFK Petrovac	Mon	2.050
386	Teteks Tetovo	Mac	2.050
386	Makedonija Skopje	Mac	2.050
391	Olimpia Balti	Mol	2.033
392	Dundalk	Irl	1.975
392	Sporting Fingal	Irl	1.975
394	Irtysh Pavlodar	Kaz	1.941
395	Slovenia	Slo	1.940
396	Olimpik Baku	Azb	1.936
396	Simurq Zaqatala	Azb	1.936
398	Jeunesse d'Esch	Lux	1.925
399	Crusaders Belfast	Nir	1.866
400	Ulisses Yerevan	Arm	1.850
400	FC Santa Coloma	And	1.850
402	Georgia	Geo	1.833
402	Vllaznia Shkodër	Alb	1.833
404	Zalgiris Vilnius	Lit	1.800
404	FBK Kaunas	Lit	1.800
406	Llanelli FC	Wal	1.766
407	Finland	Fin	1.701
408	Ordabasy Shymkent	Kaz	1.691
408	FK Atyrau	Kaz	1.691
410	Azerbaijan	Azb	1.686
411	Daugava Daugavpils	Lat	1.658
411	FK Jelgava	Lat	1.658
411	Dinaburg Daugavpils	Lat	1.658
414	Tre Fiori	Sma	1.633
415	Portadown	Nir	1.616
416	Mika Ashtarak	Arm	1.600
417	Thór Akureyri	Isl	1.583
417	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	Isl	1.583
417	Fram Reykjavik	Isl	1.583
420	Bosnia-Herzegovina	Bos	1.566
421	Celik Niksic	Mon	1.550
421	Milano Kumanovo	Mac	1.550
421	Banga Gargzdai	Lit	1.550
424	Floriana	Mlt	1.541
424	Hibernians FC	Mlt	1.541
424	Sliema Wanderers	Mlt	1.541
427	Moldova	Mol	1.533
428	Rhyl FC	Wal	1.516
429	Ireland	Irl	1.475
430	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	Kaz	1.441
430	Trans Narva	Est	1.441
430	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	Kaz	1.441
433	CS Grevenmacher	Lux	1.425
434	Tre Penne	Sma	1.383
435	Gandzasar Kapan	Arm	1.350
436	Fylkir Reykjavik	Isl	1.333
436	Keflavik	Isl	1.333
436	Besa Kavajë	Alb	1.333
439	NSI Runavik	Far	1.316
440	Sutjeska Niksic	Mon	1.300
440	Lithuania	Lit	1.300
442	Kalju Nomme	Est	1.191
442	Kazakhstan	Kaz	1.191
444	UN Käerjeng	Lux	1.175
445	Latvia	Lat	1.158
446	Juvenes Dogana	Sma	1.133
447	FC Lusitanos	And	1.100
447	Banants Yerevan	Arm	1.100
449	Teuta Durrës	Alb	1.083
449	Iceland	Isl	1.083
449	KF Laçi	Alb	1.083
452	B36 Torshavn	Far	1.066
452	Víkingur	Far	1.066
454	Montenegro	Mon	1.050
454	Macedonia	Mac	1.050
456	USV Eschen-Mauren	Lie	0.950
457	Kalev Sillamäe	Est	0.941
458	CS Fola Esch	Lux	0.925
459	Lisburn Distillery	Nir	0.866
460	Shirak Gyumri	Arm	0.850
460	UE Santa Coloma	And	0.850
462	Albania	Alb	0.833
463	Malta	Mlt	0.791
464	Cefn Druids	Wal	0.766
464	Neath FC	Wal	0.766
464	Port Talbot Town	Wal	0.766
467	Liechtenstein	Lie	0.700
468	Luxembourg	Lux	0.675
469	Northern Ireland	Nir	0.616
470	IF Fuglafjørdur	Far	0.566
471	Wales	Wal	0.516
472	Estonia	Est	0.441
473	Libertas	Sma	0.383
473	La Fiorita	Sma	0.383
473	Faetano	Sma	0.383
476	Armenia	Arm	0.350
477	Faroe Islands	Far	0.316
478	San Marino	Sma	0.133
479	Andorra	And	0.100