UEFA Champions League 2012-13 Knockout Simulations

Barcelona are big favorites.

Based on 100K simulations.

See the simulations before the GS here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-2012-13-simulations.html

See the methodology here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

Country	Team	Coefficients	Round16	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
Esp	FC Barcelona	10.44086	11.42%	18.09%	17.32%	17.57%	35.60%
Esp	Real Madrid	8.52385	23.18%	19.34%	17.59%	15.92%	23.96%
Ger	Bayern München	6.60726	30.66%	26.86%	19.66%	12.19%	10.65%
Ger	Borussia Dortmund	6.74813	25.28%	32.20%	21.45%	11.78%	9.29%
Eng	Manchester United	5.31314	39.80%	28.36%	17.21%	8.78%	5.85%
Por	FC Porto	4.10895	53.49%	23.54%	13.25%	6.07%	3.66%
Ita	Juventus	4.5066	44.20%	31.52%	15.47%	5.94%	2.87%
Ukr	Shakhtar Donetsk	3.60454	57.26%	24.10%	11.92%	4.49%	2.24%
Ger	Schalke 04	3.7516	51.05%	31.22%	12.50%	3.71%	1.52%
Esp	Málaga CF	3.8878	46.61%	36.17%	12.73%	3.36%	1.12%
Eng	Arsenal	2.82149	65.32%	22.33%	8.80%	2.61%	0.94%
Fra	Paris Saint-Germain	3.37635	54.16%	31.53%	10.82%	2.67%	0.82%
Esp	Valencia	2.97201	61.98%	25.59%	9.25%	2.41%	0.77%
Ita	AC Milan	2.37796	71.43%	19.08%	6.96%	1.91%	0.63%
Tur	Galatasaray	1.4726	82.15%	14.86%	2.61%	0.34%	0.05%
Sco	Celtic	1.48686	82.02%	15.22%	2.48%	0.25%	0.03%

UEFA Europa League 2012-13 Knockout Simulations

Athletco Madrid are favorites, but the competition is still very open.
It is interesting to note that the unseeded teams are more favorites than the seeded ones...

Based on 100K simulations.

See the simulations before the GS here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-el-2012-13-simulations.html


See the methodology here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

Country	Team	Coefficients	R32	R16	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
Esp	Atlético Madrid	7.86981	27.81%	22.09%	16.00%	11.51%	8.67%	13.93%
Eng	Chelsea	6.48158	35.68%	22.72%	15.84%	10.10%	6.68%	8.98%
Ger	Bayer Leverkusen	6.65496	32.72%	24.85%	16.25%	10.51%	6.82%	8.85%
Por	Benfica	6.10002	37.65%	23.38%	15.54%	9.76%	6.14%	7.53%
Eng	Tottenham Hotspur	6.0563	34.97%	26.49%	16.48%	9.89%	5.73%	6.44%
Rus	Zenit St. Petersburg	5.58665	38.92%	25.75%	15.73%	9.07%	5.12%	5.41%
Ger	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5.03605	42.18%	26.38%	15.30%	8.13%	4.16%	3.86%
Gre	Olympiakos Piraeus	4.78938	45.42%	24.86%	14.42%	7.57%	3.99%	3.75%
Esp	Levante UD	4.85599	43.17%	26.92%	14.90%	7.75%	3.77%	3.50%
Ger	VfB Stuttgart	4.74465	44.23%	26.83%	14.47%	7.50%	3.61%	3.36%
Eng	Liverpool	4.41824	48.01%	25.14%	13.54%	7.09%	3.31%	2.91%
Ita	Napoli	4.57599	45.14%	27.16%	14.21%	7.21%	3.39%	2.89%
Fra	Olympique Lyon	4.38957	48.73%	24.67%	13.25%	7.04%	3.44%	2.88%
Ger	Hannover 96	4.40344	47.39%	26.00%	13.74%	6.83%	3.21%	2.83%
Ita	Internazionale	4.45081	46.23%	26.91%	14.15%	6.86%	3.19%	2.66%
Ned	Ajax	4.47742	46.18%	26.88%	13.96%	7.02%	3.30%	2.66%
Ita	Lazio Roma	4.09079	50.20%	25.62%	12.87%	6.23%	2.85%	2.24%
Ukr	Dinamo Kiev	4.20765	48.15%	26.92%	13.61%	6.30%	2.80%	2.23%
Fra	Girondins Bordeaux	4.02436	51.13%	25.05%	12.79%	6.15%	2.67%	2.20%
Rus	Anzhi Makhachkala	4.18889	47.97%	27.17%	13.58%	6.41%	2.77%	2.09%
Eng	Newcastle United	3.99804	48.62%	28.36%	13.08%	5.79%	2.47%	1.68%
Ukr	Metalist Kharkiv	3.66732	53.63%	25.38%	12.04%	5.25%	2.14%	1.56%
Sui	FC Basel	3.50072	54.33%	26.41%	11.42%	4.87%	1.81%	1.16%
Ukr	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	3.17097	58.51%	24.51%	10.34%	4.19%	1.53%	0.93%
Rus	Rubin Kazan	3.20694	57.97%	24.76%	10.52%	4.26%	1.58%	0.92%
Tur	Fenerbahçe	3.04593	59.66%	24.50%	9.83%	3.83%	1.33%	0.85%
Cze	Viktoria Plzen	3.03022	59.75%	24.53%	9.87%	3.84%	1.27%	0.75%
Rom	Steaua Bucuresti	2.38291	67.01%	22.39%	7.39%	2.32%	0.60%	0.29%
Cze	Sparta Praha	2.51939	64.31%	24.62%	7.81%	2.35%	0.65%	0.27%
Bel	Racing Genk	2.22105	69.19%	21.53%	6.62%	1.93%	0.51%	0.22%
Rom	CFR Cluj	1.926	72.94%	20.00%	5.35%	1.32%	0.29%	0.11%
Bls	BATE Borisov	1.92796	72.21%	21.26%	5.12%	1.13%	0.21%	0.08%