Athletco Madrid are favorites, but the competition is still very open.
It is interesting to note that the unseeded teams are more favorites than the seeded ones...
Based on 100K simulations.
See the simulations before the GS here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-el-2012-13-simulations.html
See the methodology here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
It is interesting to note that the unseeded teams are more favorites than the seeded ones...
Based on 100K simulations.
See the simulations before the GS here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-el-2012-13-simulations.html
See the methodology here:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
| Country | Team | Coefficients | R32 | R16 | Quarter | Semi | Finalist | Champion |
| Esp | Atlético Madrid | 7.86981 | 27.81% | 22.09% | 16.00% | 11.51% | 8.67% | 13.93% |
| Eng | Chelsea | 6.48158 | 35.68% | 22.72% | 15.84% | 10.10% | 6.68% | 8.98% |
| Ger | Bayer Leverkusen | 6.65496 | 32.72% | 24.85% | 16.25% | 10.51% | 6.82% | 8.85% |
| Por | Benfica | 6.10002 | 37.65% | 23.38% | 15.54% | 9.76% | 6.14% | 7.53% |
| Eng | Tottenham Hotspur | 6.0563 | 34.97% | 26.49% | 16.48% | 9.89% | 5.73% | 6.44% |
| Rus | Zenit St. Petersburg | 5.58665 | 38.92% | 25.75% | 15.73% | 9.07% | 5.12% | 5.41% |
| Ger | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5.03605 | 42.18% | 26.38% | 15.30% | 8.13% | 4.16% | 3.86% |
| Gre | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4.78938 | 45.42% | 24.86% | 14.42% | 7.57% | 3.99% | 3.75% |
| Esp | Levante UD | 4.85599 | 43.17% | 26.92% | 14.90% | 7.75% | 3.77% | 3.50% |
| Ger | VfB Stuttgart | 4.74465 | 44.23% | 26.83% | 14.47% | 7.50% | 3.61% | 3.36% |
| Eng | Liverpool | 4.41824 | 48.01% | 25.14% | 13.54% | 7.09% | 3.31% | 2.91% |
| Ita | Napoli | 4.57599 | 45.14% | 27.16% | 14.21% | 7.21% | 3.39% | 2.89% |
| Fra | Olympique Lyon | 4.38957 | 48.73% | 24.67% | 13.25% | 7.04% | 3.44% | 2.88% |
| Ger | Hannover 96 | 4.40344 | 47.39% | 26.00% | 13.74% | 6.83% | 3.21% | 2.83% |
| Ita | Internazionale | 4.45081 | 46.23% | 26.91% | 14.15% | 6.86% | 3.19% | 2.66% |
| Ned | Ajax | 4.47742 | 46.18% | 26.88% | 13.96% | 7.02% | 3.30% | 2.66% |
| Ita | Lazio Roma | 4.09079 | 50.20% | 25.62% | 12.87% | 6.23% | 2.85% | 2.24% |
| Ukr | Dinamo Kiev | 4.20765 | 48.15% | 26.92% | 13.61% | 6.30% | 2.80% | 2.23% |
| Fra | Girondins Bordeaux | 4.02436 | 51.13% | 25.05% | 12.79% | 6.15% | 2.67% | 2.20% |
| Rus | Anzhi Makhachkala | 4.18889 | 47.97% | 27.17% | 13.58% | 6.41% | 2.77% | 2.09% |
| Eng | Newcastle United | 3.99804 | 48.62% | 28.36% | 13.08% | 5.79% | 2.47% | 1.68% |
| Ukr | Metalist Kharkiv | 3.66732 | 53.63% | 25.38% | 12.04% | 5.25% | 2.14% | 1.56% |
| Sui | FC Basel | 3.50072 | 54.33% | 26.41% | 11.42% | 4.87% | 1.81% | 1.16% |
| Ukr | Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk | 3.17097 | 58.51% | 24.51% | 10.34% | 4.19% | 1.53% | 0.93% |
| Rus | Rubin Kazan | 3.20694 | 57.97% | 24.76% | 10.52% | 4.26% | 1.58% | 0.92% |
| Tur | Fenerbahçe | 3.04593 | 59.66% | 24.50% | 9.83% | 3.83% | 1.33% | 0.85% |
| Cze | Viktoria Plzen | 3.03022 | 59.75% | 24.53% | 9.87% | 3.84% | 1.27% | 0.75% |
| Rom | Steaua Bucuresti | 2.38291 | 67.01% | 22.39% | 7.39% | 2.32% | 0.60% | 0.29% |
| Cze | Sparta Praha | 2.51939 | 64.31% | 24.62% | 7.81% | 2.35% | 0.65% | 0.27% |
| Bel | Racing Genk | 2.22105 | 69.19% | 21.53% | 6.62% | 1.93% | 0.51% | 0.22% |
| Rom | CFR Cluj | 1.926 | 72.94% | 20.00% | 5.35% | 1.32% | 0.29% | 0.11% |
| Bls | BATE Borisov | 1.92796 | 72.21% | 21.26% | 5.12% | 1.13% | 0.21% | 0.08% |
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