FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations - INCLUDING PLAYOFFS

I was requested by greenbay on Bert Kassies' European Football site to simulate the playoff matches as well, and calculate the odds of qualifying.
I made a little approximation there and used the projected October 2013 FIFA Rankings here:
http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/03/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-based-on.html
(for the rest of the teams I just took their current FIFA Rankings, though they are unlikely to be seeded anyway...)
Despite only about 63% of winning their group, Spain has nearly 97% chance of qualifying.
Here are the full results:

Group	Team	ELO	Qualifing	Points	Group Winner	Worst RU	PO Winner	PO loser
4	Netherlands	1968	99.33%	26.96	97.67%	0.00%	1.66%	0.50%
3	Germany	2036	98.31%	25.48	91.16%	0.00%	7.14%	1.14%
6	Russia	1864	97.88%	25.71	94.70%	0.04%	3.18%	1.88%
9	Spain	2113	96.89%	17.89	63.08%	0.10%	33.81%	2.78%
5	Switzerland	1789	92.32%	21.74	87.62%	0.94%	4.69%	4.24%
2	Italy	1894	91.04%	22.72	81.70%	0.75%	9.34%	4.13%
8	England	1934	87.65%	22.19	74.41%	0.65%	13.24%	4.78%
1	Croatia	1875	84.09%	22.64	53.65%	1.54%	30.44%	13.42%
7	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1762	80.98%	23.46	70.29%	0.56%	10.69%	17.45%
1	Belgium	1781	74.79%	22.00	46.21%	1.36%	28.58%	22.65%
9	France	1858	72.37%	17.33	36.86%	0.94%	35.51%	25.43%
7	Greece	1769	65.85%	22.15	29.34%	1.14%	36.51%	31.07%
6	Portugal	1854	54.72%	19.61	5.07%	9.34%	49.65%	25.32%
3	Sweden	1856	45.47%	20.25	7.79%	2.55%	37.68%	24.66%
2	Denmark	1782	34.01%	18.21	14.22%	10.17%	19.80%	26.85%
8	Montenegro	1649	27.04%	19.31	17.61%	3.94%	9.43%	27.13%
4	Romania	1720	23.99%	19.29	1.80%	4.55%	22.18%	36.20%
8	Ukraine	1739	17.35%	17.79	6.82%	2.62%	10.53%	18.55%
5	Norway	1683	14.46%	16.09	6.76%	18.22%	7.71%	17.97%
3	Republic of Ireland	1724	8.75%	17.78	1.03%	2.09%	7.72%	14.26%
4	Hungary	1657	6.94%	17.41	0.51%	5.13%	6.44%	18.26%
2	Bulgaria	1633	5.08%	15.20	2.33%	6.19%	2.76%	8.81%
5	Iceland	1483	4.66%	15.14	2.87%	6.03%	1.80%	17.67%
2	Czech Republic	1716	4.14%	14.41	1.69%	3.40%	2.45%	4.04%
5	Albania	1496	3.91%	14.40	2.70%	7.77%	1.21%	10.33%
8	Poland	1650	3.08%	15.47	1.16%	1.41%	1.92%	5.80%
6	Israel	1611	1.77%	15.06	0.24%	3.46%	1.53%	5.26%
4	Turkey	1661	0.99%	13.97	0.02%	1.30%	0.97%	2.76%
7	Slovakia	1560	0.59%	13.67	0.35%	0.42%	0.24%	1.41%
3	Austria	1575	0.45%	12.63	0.02%	0.56%	0.43%	1.77%
1	Wales	1588	0.27%	12.19	0.11%	0.39%	0.16%	0.61%
1	Serbia	1656	0.22%	11.01	0.04%	0.11%	0.18%	0.44%
9	Finland	1619	0.20%	7.34	0.03%	0.09%	0.17%	0.56%
2	Armenia	1497	0.12%	10.01	0.07%	0.85%	0.06%	0.42%
9	Belarus	1559	0.12%	7.62	0.03%	0.07%	0.09%	0.45%
5	Slovenia	1527	0.07%	9.02	0.04%	0.84%	0.03%	0.18%
7	Lithuania	1453	0.06%	11.83	0.03%	0.15%	0.03%	0.26%
5	Cyprus	1401	0.03%	8.29	0.01%	0.16%	0.01%	0.22%
6	Northern Ireland	1409	0.02%	8.65	0.00%	0.06%	0.01%	0.18%
1	Macedonia	1508	0.01%	8.91	0.00%	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%
7	Latvia	1472	0.00%	9.62	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.05%
1	Scotland	1603	0.00%	6.79	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.02%
6	Azerbaijan	1387	0.00%	8.54	0.00%	0.04%	0.00%	0.06%
4	Estonia	1466	0.00%	8.48	0.00%	0.02%	0.00%	0.02%
8	Moldova	1353	0.00%	8.38	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Kazakhstan	1328	0.00%	5.13	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	Georgia	1489	0.00%	4.67	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Luxembourg	1136	0.00%	3.70	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Faroe Islands	1186	0.00%	3.01	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Liechtenstein	1163	0.00%	2.46	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Malta	1213	0.00%	2.10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Andorra	968	0.00%	0.55	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	San Marino	860	0.00%	0.52	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations - Update 24.3.2013

What an annoying result for me as an Israeli this weekend.
We played really well against Portugal, but very strange late goal means that realistically, we are of the competition.
Anyway, here are the new simulations after the latest results:

Spain are still favorites to win their group despite the draw against Finland.
Norway are favorites to finish as the worst RU again...

Group	Team	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Worst RU
1	Croatia	1875	22.64	53.65%	45.40%	0.90%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%	1.54%
1	Belgium	1781	22.00	46.21%	52.60%	1.11%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	1.36%
1	Wales	1588	12.19	0.11%	1.16%	45.83%	30.41%	17.66%	4.83%	0.39%
1	Serbia	1656	11.01	0.04%	0.73%	35.92%	36.62%	19.18%	7.52%	0.11%
1	Macedonia	1508	8.91	0.00%	0.09%	12.98%	22.43%	36.73%	27.77%	0.03%
1	Scotland	1603	6.79	0.00%	0.03%	3.26%	10.41%	26.43%	59.88%	0.01%
2	Italy	1894	22.72	81.70%	14.22%	3.37%	0.68%	0.03%	0.00%	0.75%
2	Denmark	1782	18.21	14.22%	56.82%	20.83%	6.97%	1.17%	0.00%	10.17%
2	Bulgaria	1633	15.20	2.33%	17.76%	40.61%	33.64%	5.66%	0.00%	6.19%
2	Czech Republic	1716	14.41	1.69%	9.88%	30.40%	43.50%	14.45%	0.08%	3.40%
2	Armenia	1497	10.01	0.07%	1.33%	4.79%	15.18%	77.12%	1.52%	0.85%
2	Malta	1213	2.10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%	1.57%	98.39%	0.00%
3	Germany	2036	25.48	91.16%	8.28%	0.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Sweden	1856	20.25	7.79%	64.89%	24.32%	3.01%	0.00%	0.00%	2.55%
3	Republic of Ireland	1724	17.78	1.03%	24.07%	61.32%	13.55%	0.03%	0.00%	2.09%
3	Austria	1575	12.63	0.02%	2.76%	13.81%	82.47%	0.94%	0.00%	0.56%
3	Kazakhstan	1328	5.13	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.60%	74.75%	24.66%	0.00%
3	Faroe Islands	1186	3.01	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.37%	24.28%	75.35%	0.00%
4	Netherlands	1968	26.96	97.67%	2.16%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Romania	1720	19.29	1.80%	62.93%	28.09%	7.05%	0.13%	0.00%	4.55%
4	Hungary	1657	17.41	0.51%	29.83%	53.37%	16.07%	0.22%	0.00%	5.13%
4	Turkey	1661	13.97	0.02%	5.03%	17.95%	71.46%	5.54%	0.00%	1.30%
4	Estonia	1466	8.48	0.00%	0.04%	0.43%	5.42%	93.95%	0.16%	0.02%
4	Andorra	968	0.55	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.16%	99.84%	0.00%
5	Switzerland	1789	21.74	87.62%	9.88%	2.09%	0.38%	0.03%	0.00%	0.94%
5	Norway	1683	16.09	6.76%	43.89%	28.76%	16.43%	3.60%	0.56%	18.22%
5	Iceland	1483	15.14	2.87%	25.49%	34.98%	27.96%	7.45%	1.25%	6.03%
5	Albania	1496	14.40	2.70%	19.31%	28.44%	36.60%	11.11%	1.84%	7.77%
5	Slovenia	1527	9.02	0.04%	1.05%	3.96%	11.80%	44.23%	38.92%	0.84%
5	Cyprus	1401	8.29	0.01%	0.40%	1.77%	6.83%	33.57%	57.43%	0.16%
6	Russia	1864	25.71	94.70%	5.10%	0.21%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%
6	Portugal	1854	19.61	5.07%	84.31%	10.36%	0.25%	0.02%	0.00%	9.34%
6	Israel	1611	15.06	0.24%	10.25%	79.86%	8.32%	1.33%	0.00%	3.46%
6	Northern Ireland	1409	8.65	0.00%	0.25%	6.26%	43.54%	42.65%	7.31%	0.06%
6	Azerbaijan	1387	8.54	0.00%	0.10%	3.31%	46.10%	45.37%	5.13%	0.04%
6	Luxembourg	1136	3.70	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.79%	10.64%	87.57%	0.00%
7	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1762	23.46	70.29%	28.70%	0.94%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.56%
7	Greece	1769	22.15	29.34%	68.73%	1.77%	0.17%	0.01%	0.00%	1.14%
7	Slovakia	1560	13.67	0.35%	2.07%	58.21%	31.77%	7.60%	0.01%	0.42%
7	Lithuania	1453	11.83	0.03%	0.44%	26.72%	44.26%	28.22%	0.33%	0.15%
7	Latvia	1472	9.62	0.00%	0.07%	12.36%	23.70%	63.23%	0.65%	0.01%
7	Liechtenstein	1163	2.46	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.04%	0.94%	99.02%	0.00%
8	England	1934	22.19	74.41%	18.67%	5.83%	1.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.65%
8	Montenegro	1649	19.31	17.61%	40.50%	30.16%	11.70%	0.04%	0.00%	3.94%
8	Ukraine	1739	17.79	6.82%	31.70%	39.92%	21.27%	0.29%	0.00%	2.62%
8	Poland	1650	15.47	1.16%	9.13%	24.00%	64.02%	1.70%	0.00%	1.41%
8	Moldova	1353	8.38	0.00%	0.01%	0.09%	1.93%	97.88%	0.09%	0.01%
8	San Marino	860	0.52	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	99.91%	0.00%
9	Spain	2113	17.89	63.08%	36.68%	0.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%
9	France	1858	17.33	36.86%	61.88%	1.24%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.94%
9	Finland	1619	7.34	0.03%	0.83%	45.27%	35.10%	18.77%	0.00%	0.09%
9	Belarus	1559	7.62	0.03%	0.61%	43.16%	36.59%	19.61%	0.00%	0.07%
9	Georgia	1489	4.67	0.00%	0.01%	10.09%	28.28%	61.63%	0.00%	0.00%