יום ראשון, 24 במרץ 2013

FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations - Update 24.3.2013

What an annoying result for me as an Israeli this weekend.
We played really well against Portugal, but very strange late goal means that realistically, we are of the competition.
Anyway, here are the new simulations after the latest results:

Spain are still favorites to win their group despite the draw against Finland.
Norway are favorites to finish as the worst RU again...


Group Team ELO Points 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Worst RU
1 Croatia 1875 22.64 53.65% 45.40% 0.90% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 1.54%
1 Belgium 1781 22.00 46.21% 52.60% 1.11% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 1.36%
1 Wales 1588 12.19 0.11% 1.16% 45.83% 30.41% 17.66% 4.83% 0.39%
1 Serbia 1656 11.01 0.04% 0.73% 35.92% 36.62% 19.18% 7.52% 0.11%
1 Macedonia 1508 8.91 0.00% 0.09% 12.98% 22.43% 36.73% 27.77% 0.03%
1 Scotland 1603 6.79 0.00% 0.03% 3.26% 10.41% 26.43% 59.88% 0.01%
2 Italy 1894 22.72 81.70% 14.22% 3.37% 0.68% 0.03% 0.00% 0.75%
2 Denmark 1782 18.21 14.22% 56.82% 20.83% 6.97% 1.17% 0.00% 10.17%
2 Bulgaria 1633 15.20 2.33% 17.76% 40.61% 33.64% 5.66% 0.00% 6.19%
2 Czech Republic 1716 14.41 1.69% 9.88% 30.40% 43.50% 14.45% 0.08% 3.40%
2 Armenia 1497 10.01 0.07% 1.33% 4.79% 15.18% 77.12% 1.52% 0.85%
2 Malta 1213 2.10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 1.57% 98.39% 0.00%
3 Germany 2036 25.48 91.16% 8.28% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Sweden 1856 20.25 7.79% 64.89% 24.32% 3.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.55%
3 Republic of Ireland 1724 17.78 1.03% 24.07% 61.32% 13.55% 0.03% 0.00% 2.09%
3 Austria 1575 12.63 0.02% 2.76% 13.81% 82.47% 0.94% 0.00% 0.56%
3 Kazakhstan 1328 5.13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 74.75% 24.66% 0.00%
3 Faroe Islands 1186 3.01 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 24.28% 75.35% 0.00%
4 Netherlands 1968 26.96 97.67% 2.16% 0.16% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 Romania 1720 19.29 1.80% 62.93% 28.09% 7.05% 0.13% 0.00% 4.55%
4 Hungary 1657 17.41 0.51% 29.83% 53.37% 16.07% 0.22% 0.00% 5.13%
4 Turkey 1661 13.97 0.02% 5.03% 17.95% 71.46% 5.54% 0.00% 1.30%
4 Estonia 1466 8.48 0.00% 0.04% 0.43% 5.42% 93.95% 0.16% 0.02%
4 Andorra 968 0.55 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 99.84% 0.00%
5 Switzerland 1789 21.74 87.62% 9.88% 2.09% 0.38% 0.03% 0.00% 0.94%
5 Norway 1683 16.09 6.76% 43.89% 28.76% 16.43% 3.60% 0.56% 18.22%
5 Iceland 1483 15.14 2.87% 25.49% 34.98% 27.96% 7.45% 1.25% 6.03%
5 Albania 1496 14.40 2.70% 19.31% 28.44% 36.60% 11.11% 1.84% 7.77%
5 Slovenia 1527 9.02 0.04% 1.05% 3.96% 11.80% 44.23% 38.92% 0.84%
5 Cyprus 1401 8.29 0.01% 0.40% 1.77% 6.83% 33.57% 57.43% 0.16%
6 Russia 1864 25.71 94.70% 5.10% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04%
6 Portugal 1854 19.61 5.07% 84.31% 10.36% 0.25% 0.02% 0.00% 9.34%
6 Israel 1611 15.06 0.24% 10.25% 79.86% 8.32% 1.33% 0.00% 3.46%
6 Northern Ireland 1409 8.65 0.00% 0.25% 6.26% 43.54% 42.65% 7.31% 0.06%
6 Azerbaijan 1387 8.54 0.00% 0.10% 3.31% 46.10% 45.37% 5.13% 0.04%
6 Luxembourg 1136 3.70 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.79% 10.64% 87.57% 0.00%
7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1762 23.46 70.29% 28.70% 0.94% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
7 Greece 1769 22.15 29.34% 68.73% 1.77% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 1.14%
7 Slovakia 1560 13.67 0.35% 2.07% 58.21% 31.77% 7.60% 0.01% 0.42%
7 Lithuania 1453 11.83 0.03% 0.44% 26.72% 44.26% 28.22% 0.33% 0.15%
7 Latvia 1472 9.62 0.00% 0.07% 12.36% 23.70% 63.23% 0.65% 0.01%
7 Liechtenstein 1163 2.46 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.94% 99.02% 0.00%
8 England 1934 22.19 74.41% 18.67% 5.83% 1.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.65%
8 Montenegro 1649 19.31 17.61% 40.50% 30.16% 11.70% 0.04% 0.00% 3.94%
8 Ukraine 1739 17.79 6.82% 31.70% 39.92% 21.27% 0.29% 0.00% 2.62%
8 Poland 1650 15.47 1.16% 9.13% 24.00% 64.02% 1.70% 0.00% 1.41%
8 Moldova 1353 8.38 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 1.93% 97.88% 0.09% 0.01%
8 San Marino 860 0.52 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 99.91% 0.00%
9 Spain 2113 17.89 63.08% 36.68% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
9 France 1858 17.33 36.86% 61.88% 1.24% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.94%
9 Finland 1619 7.34 0.03% 0.83% 45.27% 35.10% 18.77% 0.00% 0.09%
9 Belarus 1559 7.62 0.03% 0.61% 43.16% 36.59% 19.61% 0.00% 0.07%
9 Georgia 1489 4.67 0.00% 0.01% 10.09% 28.28% 61.63% 0.00% 0.00%

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