I was requested by greenbay on Bert Kassies' European Football site to simulate the playoff matches as well, and calculate the odds of qualifying.
I made a little approximation there and used the projected October 2013 FIFA Rankings here:
http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/03/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-based-on.html
(for the rest of the teams I just took their current FIFA Rankings, though they are unlikely to be seeded anyway...)
Despite only about 63% of winning their group, Spain has nearly 97% chance of qualifying.
Here are the full results:
I made a little approximation there and used the projected October 2013 FIFA Rankings here:
http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/03/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-based-on.html
(for the rest of the teams I just took their current FIFA Rankings, though they are unlikely to be seeded anyway...)
Despite only about 63% of winning their group, Spain has nearly 97% chance of qualifying.
Here are the full results:
| Group | Team | ELO | Qualifing | Points | Group Winner | Worst RU | PO Winner | PO loser |
| 4 | Netherlands | 1968 | 99.33% | 26.96 | 97.67% | 0.00% | 1.66% | 0.50% |
| 3 | Germany | 2036 | 98.31% | 25.48 | 91.16% | 0.00% | 7.14% | 1.14% |
| 6 | Russia | 1864 | 97.88% | 25.71 | 94.70% | 0.04% | 3.18% | 1.88% |
| 9 | Spain | 2113 | 96.89% | 17.89 | 63.08% | 0.10% | 33.81% | 2.78% |
| 5 | Switzerland | 1789 | 92.32% | 21.74 | 87.62% | 0.94% | 4.69% | 4.24% |
| 2 | Italy | 1894 | 91.04% | 22.72 | 81.70% | 0.75% | 9.34% | 4.13% |
| 8 | England | 1934 | 87.65% | 22.19 | 74.41% | 0.65% | 13.24% | 4.78% |
| 1 | Croatia | 1875 | 84.09% | 22.64 | 53.65% | 1.54% | 30.44% | 13.42% |
| 7 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1762 | 80.98% | 23.46 | 70.29% | 0.56% | 10.69% | 17.45% |
| 1 | Belgium | 1781 | 74.79% | 22.00 | 46.21% | 1.36% | 28.58% | 22.65% |
| 9 | France | 1858 | 72.37% | 17.33 | 36.86% | 0.94% | 35.51% | 25.43% |
| 7 | Greece | 1769 | 65.85% | 22.15 | 29.34% | 1.14% | 36.51% | 31.07% |
| 6 | Portugal | 1854 | 54.72% | 19.61 | 5.07% | 9.34% | 49.65% | 25.32% |
| 3 | Sweden | 1856 | 45.47% | 20.25 | 7.79% | 2.55% | 37.68% | 24.66% |
| 2 | Denmark | 1782 | 34.01% | 18.21 | 14.22% | 10.17% | 19.80% | 26.85% |
| 8 | Montenegro | 1649 | 27.04% | 19.31 | 17.61% | 3.94% | 9.43% | 27.13% |
| 4 | Romania | 1720 | 23.99% | 19.29 | 1.80% | 4.55% | 22.18% | 36.20% |
| 8 | Ukraine | 1739 | 17.35% | 17.79 | 6.82% | 2.62% | 10.53% | 18.55% |
| 5 | Norway | 1683 | 14.46% | 16.09 | 6.76% | 18.22% | 7.71% | 17.97% |
| 3 | Republic of Ireland | 1724 | 8.75% | 17.78 | 1.03% | 2.09% | 7.72% | 14.26% |
| 4 | Hungary | 1657 | 6.94% | 17.41 | 0.51% | 5.13% | 6.44% | 18.26% |
| 2 | Bulgaria | 1633 | 5.08% | 15.20 | 2.33% | 6.19% | 2.76% | 8.81% |
| 5 | Iceland | 1483 | 4.66% | 15.14 | 2.87% | 6.03% | 1.80% | 17.67% |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 1716 | 4.14% | 14.41 | 1.69% | 3.40% | 2.45% | 4.04% |
| 5 | Albania | 1496 | 3.91% | 14.40 | 2.70% | 7.77% | 1.21% | 10.33% |
| 8 | Poland | 1650 | 3.08% | 15.47 | 1.16% | 1.41% | 1.92% | 5.80% |
| 6 | Israel | 1611 | 1.77% | 15.06 | 0.24% | 3.46% | 1.53% | 5.26% |
| 4 | Turkey | 1661 | 0.99% | 13.97 | 0.02% | 1.30% | 0.97% | 2.76% |
| 7 | Slovakia | 1560 | 0.59% | 13.67 | 0.35% | 0.42% | 0.24% | 1.41% |
| 3 | Austria | 1575 | 0.45% | 12.63 | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.43% | 1.77% |
| 1 | Wales | 1588 | 0.27% | 12.19 | 0.11% | 0.39% | 0.16% | 0.61% |
| 1 | Serbia | 1656 | 0.22% | 11.01 | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.44% |
| 9 | Finland | 1619 | 0.20% | 7.34 | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.56% |
| 2 | Armenia | 1497 | 0.12% | 10.01 | 0.07% | 0.85% | 0.06% | 0.42% |
| 9 | Belarus | 1559 | 0.12% | 7.62 | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.45% |
| 5 | Slovenia | 1527 | 0.07% | 9.02 | 0.04% | 0.84% | 0.03% | 0.18% |
| 7 | Lithuania | 1453 | 0.06% | 11.83 | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.26% |
| 5 | Cyprus | 1401 | 0.03% | 8.29 | 0.01% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.22% |
| 6 | Northern Ireland | 1409 | 0.02% | 8.65 | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.18% |
| 1 | Macedonia | 1508 | 0.01% | 8.91 | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.05% |
| 7 | Latvia | 1472 | 0.00% | 9.62 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.05% |
| 1 | Scotland | 1603 | 0.00% | 6.79 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Azerbaijan | 1387 | 0.00% | 8.54 | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.06% |
| 4 | Estonia | 1466 | 0.00% | 8.48 | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Moldova | 1353 | 0.00% | 8.38 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 1328 | 0.00% | 5.13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Georgia | 1489 | 0.00% | 4.67 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Luxembourg | 1136 | 0.00% | 3.70 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 1186 | 0.00% | 3.01 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Liechtenstein | 1163 | 0.00% | 2.46 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Malta | 1213 | 0.00% | 2.10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Andorra | 968 | 0.00% | 0.55 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | San Marino | 860 | 0.00% | 0.52 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
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