UEFA Euro Qualifying - Nations League Impact

Hello,

Today I will make an analysis of the impact of the new change in UEFA Euro Qualifing System, in which 4 teams would qualify from the Nations League Playoffs.
I included in the analysis the following scenarios:

1. The real system of UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifing
2. A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league above (lowest pot) 
3. A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league below (highest pot) 
4. A system in which there are 8 group of 7-8 teams, where top 3 teams in each group qualify.
5. A system in which there are 9 group of 6-7 teams, where top 2 teams + 3 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify, and the other 3rd place teams go to playoffs (previous system).
6. A system in which there are 11 group of 5 teams, where top 2 teams + 2 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify.

The most interesting finding is that being in League A actually improves the chances of a team to qualify to Euro 2020 comparing to group B, and being in League B improves the chances of a team to qualify comparing to League C. It has two reasons:

1. In 99.8% of the simulations, at least 8 League A teams qualified through the main qualifing, making all league A teams qualify at least for the playoffs. For League B, in 87% of the simulation all teams qualifies at least for the playoffs.
2. The main qualifying seeding is based on the Nations League final standing, and higher league means higher seeding.

All scenarios are done with one million simulations of the draw and the matches (Elo ratings as of 1.12.2017). 
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

Here are the full results:

Team	League	ELO	Q-normal	Q-up	Q-down	Q-8-groups	Q_9-groups	Q_11-groups
Germany	A	2098.00	99.8%		99.6%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%
Spain	A	2015.00	99.2%		98.7%	99.5%	99.6%	99.2%
Portugal	A	1982.00	98.7%		97.9%	99.2%	99.3%	98.7%
France	A	1959.00	98.0%		96.6%	98.7%	99.0%	98.2%
Italy	A	1920.00	96.5%		94.3%	97.7%	98.1%	96.8%
Belgium	A	1910.00	96.0%		94.1%	97.2%	97.7%	96.4%
England	A	1909.00	96.0%		94.2%	97.3%	97.7%	96.5%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	91.7%		88.9%	92.4%	93.1%	89.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	90.9%		86.9%	93.5%	94.0%	92.3%
Poland	A	1835.00	89.6%		86.2%	90.6%	93.3%	91.6%
Croatia	A	1833.00	89.2%		86.0%	90.4%	91.0%	91.3%
Iceland	A	1822.00	88.0%		84.0%	89.2%	89.7%	90.2%
Denmark	B	1781.00	77.1%	82.2%	72.2%	81.3%	80.3%	79.9%
Sweden	B	1771.00	75.6%	81.0%	70.8%	79.6%	82.0%	78.4%
Wales	B	1751.00	71.2%	77.5%	65.0%	78.0%	78.6%	74.8%
Republic of Ireland	B	1750.00	71.0%	77.5%	65.2%	75.7%	74.6%	74.5%
Slovakia	B	1732.00	67.1%	72.9%	61.0%	74.7%	74.6%	71.2%
Turkey	B	1721.00	64.4%	71.2%	57.7%	69.6%	66.9%	60.2%
Ukraine	B	1709.00	61.6%	68.9%	54.5%	65.4%	69.1%	66.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1706.00	61.1%	67.4%	53.8%	65.9%	64.3%	66.1%
Russia	B	1680.00	54.3%	62.0%	46.0%	62.8%	62.0%	60.3%
Austria	B	1678.00	53.6%	61.0%	45.8%	62.2%	61.9%	60.0%
Czech Republic	B	1660.00	49.1%	56.7%	41.7%	54.6%	51.6%	46.5%
Northern Ireland	B	1654.00	47.6%	55.5%	39.8%	53.2%	50.4%	54.6%
Serbia	C	1737.00	62.6%	67.9%	78.4%	64.1%	61.5%	63.7%
Scotland	C	1708.00	55.2%	61.8%	72.1%	57.2%	63.2%	57.7%
Romania	C	1669.00	44.9%	51.2%	64.2%	47.2%	53.0%	48.4%
Greece	C	1647.00	38.7%	45.7%	59.0%	41.9%	38.5%	43.2%
Slovenia	C	1618.00	32.0%	38.4%	52.1%	34.4%	31.1%	36.8%
Hungary	C	1593.00	26.2%	33.2%	44.9%	29.1%	33.3%	31.6%
Bulgaria	C	1590.00	24.2%	32.3%	44.6%	21.9%	24.2%	22.2%
Montenegro	C	1590.00	24.3%	32.1%	44.7%	22.2%	24.4%	30.8%
Norway	C	1578.00	23.1%	30.3%	42.8%	25.5%	22.2%	28.4%
Albania	C	1573.00	21.8%	28.7%	40.7%	24.5%	21.2%	27.3%
Finland	C	1567.00	19.7%	28.5%	39.5%	17.8%	19.7%	18.7%
Israel	C	1514.00	11.5%	17.0%	28.1%	10.2%	11.2%	11.4%
Estonia	C	1476.00	6.7%	12.7%	21.0%	6.3%	4.9%	7.6%
Cyprus	C	1399.00	2.2%	5.1%	9.7%	2.0%	1.5%	2.9%
Lithuania	C	1385.00	1.8%	4.2%	9.5%	1.6%	1.1%	2.5%
Belarus	D	1489.00	26.5%	8.1%		6.9%	5.8%	8.6%
Macedonia	D	1484.00	25.4%	7.9%		6.5%	5.5%	8.2%
Georgia	D	1457.00	20.2%	6.0%		4.5%	3.6%	6.0%
Armenia	D	1439.00	13.8%	4.9%		3.3%	2.7%	4.8%
Azerbaijan	D	1382.00	10.7%	1.8%		1.5%	1.0%	2.3%
Latvia	D	1355.00	6.0%	1.2%		0.9%	0.6%	1.0%
Kosovo	D	1351.00	4.2%	1.1%		0.6%	0.5%	1.0%
Kazakhstan	D	1320.00	3.4%	0.7%		0.4%	0.2%	0.6%
Moldova	D	1310.00	2.9%	0.5%		0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
Luxembourg	D	1285.00	2.4%	0.4%		0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Faroe Islands	D	1258.00	1.7%	0.3%		0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Malta	D	1204.00	0.6%	0.1%		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Liechtenstein	D	1128.00	0.1%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Gibraltar	D	1049.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Andorra	D	993.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Marino	D	835.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

UEFA Nations League 2018-19 simulations - All Leagues

Hello,

In today' post I'll present the simulations for all leagues in UEFA Nations League. As always, the simulations are based on

The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.

Please notice that group size varies between 3 and 4 teams.
So without further ado, here are the results of 100K simulations:

Team	League	ELO	Avg_Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Relegation	Overall_Avg
Germany	A	2098.00	6.494	70.5%	22.1%	7.3%		7.3%	3.50
Spain	A	2015.00	5.4954	56.1%	29.5%	14.4%		14.4%	4.61
Portugal	A	1982.00	5.0926	50.2%	31.6%	18.2%		18.2%	5.08
France	A	1959.00	4.37768	36.5%	38.7%	24.7%		24.7%	5.96
Belgium	A	1910.00	4.32908	38.5%	34.3%	27.1%		27.1%	6.03
Italy	A	1920.00	3.9676	30.6%	39.0%	30.4%		30.4%	6.49
England	A	1909.00	3.8678	29.0%	39.1%	31.9%		31.9%	6.64
Switzerland	A	1845.00	3.24604	20.8%	37.7%	41.6%		41.6%	7.48
Netherlands	A	1854.00	2.98684	18.9%	33.0%	48.1%		48.1%	7.82
Poland	A	1835.00	2.81508	16.9%	32.0%	51.1%		51.1%	8.06
Croatia	A	1833.00	2.78628	16.5%	32.0%	51.5%		51.5%	8.09
Iceland	A	1822.00	2.68508	15.4%	31.1%	53.5%		53.5%	8.24
Sweden	B	1771.00	4.62488	43.0%	33.0%	24.0%		24.0%	17.62
Denmark	B	1781.00	4.5556	42.5%	32.6%	24.9%		24.9%	17.70
Republic of Ireland	B	1750.00	4.4206	40.0%	33.5%	26.5%		26.5%	17.89
Wales	B	1751.00	4.30544	38.3%	33.6%	28.1%		28.1%	18.03
Slovakia	B	1732.00	4.10984	35.2%	33.7%	31.0%		31.0%	18.30
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1706.00	3.98356	33.5%	33.7%	32.8%		32.8%	18.47
Turkey	B	1721.00	3.9436	32.9%	34.0%	33.1%		33.1%	18.52
Ukraine	B	1709.00	3.91224	32.3%	34.0%	33.7%		33.7%	18.56
Austria	B	1678.00	3.56984	27.3%	33.6%	39.1%		39.1%	19.05
Russia	B	1680.00	3.54036	26.8%	33.3%	39.8%		39.8%	19.09
Czech Republic	B	1660.00	3.34924	24.3%	32.6%	43.1%		43.1%	19.37
Northern Ireland	B	1654.00	3.31292	23.8%	32.5%	43.7%		43.7%	19.41
Serbia	C	1737.00	7.169745	54.9%	29.0%	13.6%	2.5%	5.1%	28.81
Scotland	C	1708.00	6.7837	50.5%	30.3%	15.7%	3.5%	6.5%	29.20
Romania	C	1669.00	6.20818	43.2%	31.7%	19.8%	5.2%	9.3%	29.85
Greece	C	1647.00	5.79249	38.0%	32.2%	23.0%	6.9%	11.8%	30.34
Slovenia	C	1618.00	5.44819	34.0%	32.2%	25.2%	8.5%	14.2%	30.74
Hungary	C	1593.00	5.10796	30.1%	31.6%	27.8%	10.4%	16.9%	31.16
Norway	C	1578.00	4.805295	26.4%	31.3%	30.3%	12.0%	19.2%	31.55
Albania	C	1573.00	4.74408	25.8%	31.3%	30.4%	12.5%	19.9%	31.63
Montenegro	C	1590.00	4.58634	24.1%	30.5%	33.5%	12.0%	20.7%	31.80
Bulgaria	C	1590.00	4.573855	23.8%	30.9%	33.5%	11.9%	20.6%	31.81
Finland	C	1567.00	4.264645	20.7%	29.4%	35.7%	14.2%	24.0%	32.22
Israel	C	1514.00	3.557895	14.3%	25.5%	40.0%	20.2%	32.7%	33.16
Estonia	C	1476.00	2.88114	8.0%	16.0%	27.3%	48.7%	55.1%	34.96
Cyprus	C	1399.00	1.92414	3.4%	9.5%	22.6%	64.5%	70.9%	36.29
Lithuania	C	1385.00	1.76334	2.9%	8.6%	21.6%	66.9%	73.2%	36.49
Belarus	D	1489.00	10.02402	63.2%	25.9%	9.3%	1.6%		43.14
Macedonia	D	1484.00	9.93144	62.1%	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%		43.22
Georgia	D	1457.00	9.52662	57.3%	28.6%	11.8%	2.4%		43.61
Azerbaijan	D	1382.00	8.6301	48.6%	30.1%	16.7%	4.5%		44.49
Armenia	D	1439.00	8.55948	38.0%	40.6%	17.8%	3.6%		44.69
Latvia	D	1355.00	7.46196	27.9%	39.3%	25.7%	7.1%		45.86
Luxembourg	D	1285.00	6.41682	17.9%	37.0%	33.1%	12.1%		47.03
Kazakhstan	D	1320.00	6.40548	19.0%	31.8%	37.2%	12.0%		47.08
Moldova	D	1310.00	6.26196	17.9%	31.1%	38.3%	12.7%		47.24
Kosovo	D	1351.00	5.88408	21.8%	29.4%	29.0%	19.8%		47.50
Faroe Islands	D	1258.00	5.98152	14.5%	34.9%	36.0%	14.6%		47.51
Malta	D	1204.00	4.67334	7.3%	21.7%	46.9%	24.1%		49.04
Liechtenstein	D	1128.00	3.57048	3.2%	14.4%	47.9%	34.5%		50.21
Gibraltar	D	1049.00	1.6299	0.9%	5.4%	20.6%	73.0%		52.29
Andorra	D	993.00	1.10334	0.4%	2.9%	15.3%	81.4%		52.92
San Marino	D	835.00	0.2949	0.0%	0.4%	4.7%	94.9%		54.17

In League B all teams seem very close to each other with having between 23.8% to 43% of 1st position in their group, hence promotion to League A. They also have between 24% to 43.7% of relegating to group C. What it means is either we don't have enough data on these teams to differentiate between them, or their level is really that close, and having only 4 matches per teams makes the final position comes down to luck (or a combination of the two).
The overall rankings will determine the spots for Euro 2020 PO  (among other criteria, I'll talk about it on the next post of Euro 2020 Qualifying simulations.

UEFA Nations League 2018–19 Simulations - League A

Hi guys,

It has been forever since I've posted simulations here.
Thank to other great members of the community for posting their own simulations on other sites!
For those of you who don't know, the UEFA Nations League is a new bi-annual tournament that is divided into 4 leagues. Each League is composed of groups with 3-4 teams, with relegation and promotion between the leagues.
The first edition of League A got great line up:
Pot 1: Spain, Belgium, Germany, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Poland, Switzerland, France
Pot 3: Iceland, England, Netherlands, Croatia

The 4 group winner would play in a one-leg semi final and final matches to determine the first UEFA Nations League Winner.

For more information see:

UEFA Nations League: all you need to know

And now, for the reason we all got here, the simulations. The simulations are based on
World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here:

Football Club Elo Ratings

I'll start with league A:

Team	League	ELO	Relegation	Final Four	winner
Germany	A	2098.00	7.2%	70.5%	31.5%
Spain	A	2015.00	14.6%	56.1%	16.8%
Portugal	A	1982.00	18.2%	50.0%	12.9%
France	A	1959.00	24.8%	36.5%	8.9%
Belgium	A	1910.00	27.3%	38.5%	6.9%
Italy	A	1920.00	30.1%	30.8%	6.1%
England	A	1909.00	31.8%	29.1%	5.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	41.2%	21.0%	2.8%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	48.1%	18.8%	2.7%
Poland	A	1835.00	51.4%	16.8%	2.2%
Croatia	A	1833.00	51.6%	16.6%	2.1%
Iceland	A	1822.00	53.7%	15.4%	1.8%

The system of play gives a significant advantage for better teams, a lot more than UEFA EURO or the FIFA World Cup, and this is because the knockout phase start from the semi finals, and not the round of 16.

As you can see, Germany has the most chances of winning with 31.5%, but is not safe from relegation at all with 7.2% of playing in League B in 2020-1, next one is Spain with 14.6%!

I assume UEFA has done these calculations, and I wonder how could they risk having a powerhouse relegating and damaging their own product somewhat.

I believe relegating 4 teams out of 12 (and after only 4 matches played) is way too much, but the schedule is already crowded with the main tournaments qualification, and UEFA wanted the Nations League to become a part of Euro 2020 Qualifying, which adds more matches by having playoffs, so I guess UEFA settled for it.