UEFA Euro Qualifying - Nations League Impact

Hello,

Today I will make an analysis of the impact of the new change in UEFA Euro Qualifing System, in which 4 teams would qualify from the Nations League Playoffs.
I included in the analysis the following scenarios:

1. The real system of UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifing
2. A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league above (lowest pot) 
3. A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league below (highest pot) 
4. A system in which there are 8 group of 7-8 teams, where top 3 teams in each group qualify.
5. A system in which there are 9 group of 6-7 teams, where top 2 teams + 3 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify, and the other 3rd place teams go to playoffs (previous system).
6. A system in which there are 11 group of 5 teams, where top 2 teams + 2 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify.

The most interesting finding is that being in League A actually improves the chances of a team to qualify to Euro 2020 comparing to group B, and being in League B improves the chances of a team to qualify comparing to League C. It has two reasons:

1. In 99.8% of the simulations, at least 8 League A teams qualified through the main qualifing, making all league A teams qualify at least for the playoffs. For League B, in 87% of the simulation all teams qualifies at least for the playoffs.
2. The main qualifying seeding is based on the Nations League final standing, and higher league means higher seeding.

All scenarios are done with one million simulations of the draw and the matches (Elo ratings as of 1.12.2017). 
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

Here are the full results:

Team	League	ELO	Q-normal	Q-up	Q-down	Q-8-groups	Q_9-groups	Q_11-groups
Germany	A	2098.00	99.8%		99.6%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%
Spain	A	2015.00	99.2%		98.7%	99.5%	99.6%	99.2%
Portugal	A	1982.00	98.7%		97.9%	99.2%	99.3%	98.7%
France	A	1959.00	98.0%		96.6%	98.7%	99.0%	98.2%
Italy	A	1920.00	96.5%		94.3%	97.7%	98.1%	96.8%
Belgium	A	1910.00	96.0%		94.1%	97.2%	97.7%	96.4%
England	A	1909.00	96.0%		94.2%	97.3%	97.7%	96.5%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	91.7%		88.9%	92.4%	93.1%	89.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	90.9%		86.9%	93.5%	94.0%	92.3%
Poland	A	1835.00	89.6%		86.2%	90.6%	93.3%	91.6%
Croatia	A	1833.00	89.2%		86.0%	90.4%	91.0%	91.3%
Iceland	A	1822.00	88.0%		84.0%	89.2%	89.7%	90.2%
Denmark	B	1781.00	77.1%	82.2%	72.2%	81.3%	80.3%	79.9%
Sweden	B	1771.00	75.6%	81.0%	70.8%	79.6%	82.0%	78.4%
Wales	B	1751.00	71.2%	77.5%	65.0%	78.0%	78.6%	74.8%
Republic of Ireland	B	1750.00	71.0%	77.5%	65.2%	75.7%	74.6%	74.5%
Slovakia	B	1732.00	67.1%	72.9%	61.0%	74.7%	74.6%	71.2%
Turkey	B	1721.00	64.4%	71.2%	57.7%	69.6%	66.9%	60.2%
Ukraine	B	1709.00	61.6%	68.9%	54.5%	65.4%	69.1%	66.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1706.00	61.1%	67.4%	53.8%	65.9%	64.3%	66.1%
Russia	B	1680.00	54.3%	62.0%	46.0%	62.8%	62.0%	60.3%
Austria	B	1678.00	53.6%	61.0%	45.8%	62.2%	61.9%	60.0%
Czech Republic	B	1660.00	49.1%	56.7%	41.7%	54.6%	51.6%	46.5%
Northern Ireland	B	1654.00	47.6%	55.5%	39.8%	53.2%	50.4%	54.6%
Serbia	C	1737.00	62.6%	67.9%	78.4%	64.1%	61.5%	63.7%
Scotland	C	1708.00	55.2%	61.8%	72.1%	57.2%	63.2%	57.7%
Romania	C	1669.00	44.9%	51.2%	64.2%	47.2%	53.0%	48.4%
Greece	C	1647.00	38.7%	45.7%	59.0%	41.9%	38.5%	43.2%
Slovenia	C	1618.00	32.0%	38.4%	52.1%	34.4%	31.1%	36.8%
Hungary	C	1593.00	26.2%	33.2%	44.9%	29.1%	33.3%	31.6%
Bulgaria	C	1590.00	24.2%	32.3%	44.6%	21.9%	24.2%	22.2%
Montenegro	C	1590.00	24.3%	32.1%	44.7%	22.2%	24.4%	30.8%
Norway	C	1578.00	23.1%	30.3%	42.8%	25.5%	22.2%	28.4%
Albania	C	1573.00	21.8%	28.7%	40.7%	24.5%	21.2%	27.3%
Finland	C	1567.00	19.7%	28.5%	39.5%	17.8%	19.7%	18.7%
Israel	C	1514.00	11.5%	17.0%	28.1%	10.2%	11.2%	11.4%
Estonia	C	1476.00	6.7%	12.7%	21.0%	6.3%	4.9%	7.6%
Cyprus	C	1399.00	2.2%	5.1%	9.7%	2.0%	1.5%	2.9%
Lithuania	C	1385.00	1.8%	4.2%	9.5%	1.6%	1.1%	2.5%
Belarus	D	1489.00	26.5%	8.1%		6.9%	5.8%	8.6%
Macedonia	D	1484.00	25.4%	7.9%		6.5%	5.5%	8.2%
Georgia	D	1457.00	20.2%	6.0%		4.5%	3.6%	6.0%
Armenia	D	1439.00	13.8%	4.9%		3.3%	2.7%	4.8%
Azerbaijan	D	1382.00	10.7%	1.8%		1.5%	1.0%	2.3%
Latvia	D	1355.00	6.0%	1.2%		0.9%	0.6%	1.0%
Kosovo	D	1351.00	4.2%	1.1%		0.6%	0.5%	1.0%
Kazakhstan	D	1320.00	3.4%	0.7%		0.4%	0.2%	0.6%
Moldova	D	1310.00	2.9%	0.5%		0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
Luxembourg	D	1285.00	2.4%	0.4%		0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Faroe Islands	D	1258.00	1.7%	0.3%		0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Malta	D	1204.00	0.6%	0.1%		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Liechtenstein	D	1128.00	0.1%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Gibraltar	D	1049.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Andorra	D	993.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Marino	D	835.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Draw Analysis

The draw result for FIFA World Cup 2018 is (taken from FIFA.com):

Let's start by looking at the Elo Ratings of the teams by group:

Group	Elo_Avg	Elo_Std
A	1720.00	100.12
B	1866.50	133.92
C	1843.25	90.22
D	1821.50	98.89
E	1855.25	145.70
F	1857.25	142.42
G	1774.50	137.63
H	1803.75	70.06

The most balanced group is group H, and any final ranking seem reasonable.
Group A is the easiest group by far, and in fact it has one of the worst 3 teams from each one of the seeding pots according to Elo.

The hardest groups are groups B, E and F. On first look it would seem maybe that Portugal and Spain have a relatively easy draw, because of the bottom 2 teams in their group. Group E has 3 teams that reached the last 16 in FIFA World Cup 2014, and group F has last 16 regulars Germany and Mexico, in addition to giant slayer Sweden, that eliminated both Netherlands and Italy.

I made 1 million simulations of the tournament before and after the draw using Elo Ratings (adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts) in order to test the draw more scientifically:
The number represent the cumulative percentage change of reaching a certain position/round for all teams in the group.

Group	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
A	2.93	37.25%	12.82%	-9.92%	-40.14%	50.07%	2.47%	2.79%	0.31%	0.14%	0.99%
B	-1.46	-23.43%	-2.91%	12.65%	13.69%	-26.34%	13.23%	10.91%	2.02%	1.06%	4.65%
C	-0.97	-8.99%	-7.49%	-0.22%	16.69%	-16.47%	-4.99%	-0.96%	-2.05%	-0.66%	0.57%
D	0.01	3.58%	-4.55%	-1.34%	2.31%	-0.97%	-0.28%	0.50%	-1.32%	-0.52%	0.81%
E	-1.05	-15.86%	-0.09%	2.97%	12.98%	-15.95%	-20.38%	-3.75%	0.33%	0.24%	-2.04%
F	-1.07	-17.04%	1.07%	3.61%	12.36%	-15.98%	-20.31%	-3.53%	-0.05%	-0.79%	-1.85%
G	1.33	13.38%	6.27%	0.68%	-20.32%	19.64%	21.05%	-0.95%	1.36%	0.69%	-1.19%
H	0.30	11.12%	-5.11%	-8.43%	2.42%	6.00%	9.20%	-5.01%	-0.60%	-0.16%	-1.94%

As expected, Group A teams were expected about 1.5 qualifications to R16 before he draw, and after the draw obviously 2 of them would qualify. When looking at the quarter finals, group H teams are actually the winners, avoiding the top 6 Elo teams until the quarter finals. Group B team are actually the winners when it comes to raising the probability of winning the tournament.
The losers of the draw when looking at the chance of going out in the group stage are Group B teams. It is easy to sometimes underestimate the bottom teams in the group, but their chance of qualifying is not negligible. Having Spain in that group reduced Portugal chance of qualifying significantly. When looking at the quarter finals probability, group E and F are the biggest losers, since they will meet each other in the R16, and both groups are very strong.
The results of the draw are very significant for the participating teams, but of course the games still need to be played, and the ability and luck their would b even more significant.

Here are the results by team (order by difference in R16 from lowest to highest):

Team	Group	Pot	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Iran	B	3	1791	-0.38	-5.63%	-3.89%	6.70%	2.82%	-9.52%	0.99%	0.86%	0.05%	0.02%	0.29%
Morocco	B	4	1686	-0.48	-3.37%	-4.61%	-0.35%	8.33%	-7.98%	0.06%	0.13%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%
South Korea	F	4	1702	-0.49	-4.56%	-2.27%	-1.95%	8.78%	-6.83%	-3.62%	-0.65%	-0.09%	-0.02%	-0.16%
Switzerland	E	2	1845	-0.43	-10.22%	3.98%	3.21%	3.03%	-6.24%	-8.42%	-2.25%	-0.45%	-0.17%	-0.80%
Peru	C	2	1866	-0.31	-4.72%	-1.29%	2.53%	3.49%	-6.01%	-2.12%	-0.54%	-0.60%	-0.18%	-0.01%
Costa Rica	E	3	1728	-0.39	-5.09%	-0.47%	-0.15%	5.71%	-5.56%	-4.14%	-0.73%	-0.11%	-0.03%	-0.21%
Serbia	E	4	1752	-0.38	-5.30%	-0.20%	1.08%	4.42%	-5.50%	-4.66%	-0.97%	-0.19%	-0.06%	-0.26%
Portugal	B	1	1976	-0.39	-11.39%	5.97%	4.03%	1.40%	-5.42%	5.71%	4.98%	1.38%	0.58%	1.78%
Mexico	F	2	1833	-0.32	-8.27%	3.06%	3.59%	1.63%	-5.22%	-7.30%	-1.81%	-0.28%	-0.09%	-0.67%
Australia	C	4	1718	-0.35	-1.77%	-3.41%	-3.73%	8.91%	-5.19%	-1.28%	-0.30%	-0.13%	-0.03%	-0.06%
Sweden	F	3	1805	-0.28	-6.33%	2.53%	2.08%	1.72%	-3.80%	-5.60%	-1.25%	-0.17%	-0.04%	-0.42%
Croatia	D	2	1838	-0.14	-1.29%	-2.15%	1.35%	2.08%	-3.44%	-1.38%	-0.28%	-0.46%	-0.15%	0.06%
Spain	B	2	2013	-0.22	-3.04%	-0.38%	2.27%	1.15%	-3.42%	6.48%	4.95%	0.59%	0.45%	2.56%
France	C	1	1969	-0.17	-1.45%	-1.58%	1.36%	1.67%	-3.03%	-1.18%	-0.03%	-1.02%	-0.36%	0.57%
Denmark	C	3	1820	-0.14	-1.04%	-1.20%	-0.39%	2.62%	-2.24%	-0.40%	-0.09%	-0.30%	-0.08%	0.07%
Poland	H	1	1821	-0.09	-1.20%	-0.62%	0.29%	1.52%	-1.82%	1.45%	-1.70%	-0.16%	-0.04%	-0.64%
Nigeria	D	4	1691	-0.05	-0.24%	-0.11%	-0.60%	0.96%	-0.35%	-0.20%	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.01%
Germany	F	1	2089	0.02	2.12%	-2.25%	-0.11%	0.24%	-0.13%	-3.79%	0.17%	0.49%	-0.63%	-0.60%
Tunisia	G	3	1619	0.12	0.40%	0.34%	2.85%	-3.58%	0.73%	1.06%	-0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.01%
Iceland	D	3	1791	0.03	0.46%	0.45%	-0.70%	-0.22%	0.91%	0.35%	0.23%	-0.13%	-0.04%	0.14%
Brazil	E	1	2096	0.16	4.74%	-3.40%	-1.16%	-0.18%	1.34%	-3.16%	0.20%	1.07%	0.50%	-0.77%
Argentina	D	1	1966	0.17	4.65%	-2.74%	-1.39%	-0.51%	1.91%	0.96%	0.54%	-0.70%	-0.34%	0.60%
Japan	H	4	1735	0.06	2.01%	-0.03%	-2.69%	0.71%	1.98%	1.59%	-0.50%	-0.02%	0.00%	-0.15%
Panama	G	4	1656	0.25	0.81%	1.72%	6.19%	-8.71%	2.52%	1.75%	-0.04%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%
Senegal	H	3	1748	0.11	2.71%	0.06%	-3.28%	0.51%	2.77%	2.04%	-0.58%	-0.05%	0.00%	-0.18%
Colombia	H	2	1911	0.21	7.59%	-4.52%	-2.75%	-0.31%	3.07%	4.11%	-2.23%	-0.37%	-0.12%	-0.96%
Belgium	G	1	1909	0.44	3.74%	4.05%	-3.71%	-4.08%	7.79%	8.98%	-0.32%	0.86%	0.39%	-0.67%
England	G	2	1914	0.52	8.44%	0.16%	-4.64%	-3.95%	8.60%	9.26%	-0.54%	0.48%	0.29%	-0.50%
Saudi Arabia	A	4	1596	0.55	4.11%	4.86%	1.39%	-10.37%	8.98%	0.13%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
Egypt	A	3	1654	0.73	6.34%	6.09%	0.86%	-13.29%	12.42%	0.49%	0.17%	0.01%	0.00%	0.04%
Russia	A	1	1781	0.71	9.11%	3.81%	-4.27%	-8.65%	12.92%	0.03%	0.80%	0.08%	0.02%	0.28%
Uruguay	A	2	1849	0.94	17.69%	-1.94%	-7.91%	-7.83%	15.75%	1.82%	1.78%	0.22%	0.11%	0.67%

Here are the Elo Weighted results (weighted 10^((elo ratings-1500)/400), because of Elo structure) :

Group	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
A	13.33	2.00	0.28	-0.76	-1.52	2.28	0.15	0.18	0.02	0.01	0.07
B	-13.52	-2.75	0.51	1.41	0.83	-2.24	2.18	1.77	0.33	0.18	0.78
C	-7.16	-0.73	-0.54	0.26	1.01	-1.27	-0.42	-0.06	-0.22	-0.08	0.09
D	1.45	0.61	-0.53	-0.16	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.07	-0.14	-0.06	0.10
E	-1.27	0.31	-0.79	-0.09	0.57	-0.48	-1.94	-0.17	0.29	0.14	-0.32
F	-4.70	-0.45	-0.39	0.27	0.56	-0.83	-2.06	-0.16	0.11	-0.20	-0.25
G	11.09	1.34	0.49	-0.69	-1.14	1.83	2.01	-0.09	0.14	0.07	-0.12
H	2.43	0.92	-0.52	-0.52	0.11	0.40	0.68	-0.39	-0.05	-0.01	-0.16

For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).

For the full simulation results see:
After the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html
Before the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/11/fifa-world-cup-2018-pre-draw-simulation.html

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Pre Draw Simulation

The very much awaited FIFA World Cup 2018 draw is scheduled for December 1st.
The pots for the draw were announced, and are based on FIFA World Rankings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding

I made 1 million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).

The 3 most likely group stage matches are Mexico-Serbia with 33.6% (which could be part of the group of death), Iran-Morocco with 28.9% of taking place, and Iran-Nigeria with 28.9% as well.

What I found the most interesting, is that even the worst team according to ELO (Saudi Arabia) still have 15.7% probability of going to the last 16. The group stage is going to be very fierce.
Another interesting fact is Brazil having a higher probability than Germany of going out already in the GS , even though it is the best team according to ELO. It could be explained by the fact that there can only be 2 European teams per group, therefor Brazil have a higher probability to get tough teams from pots 3 and 4.

Without further ado, here are the average points in the GS, and probabilities of each team to get a GS rank and final positions:

Team	Pot	ELO	Avg_Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Russia	1	1781	4.20	23.8%	28.1%	26.4%	21.8%	51.9%	19.1%	6.1%	1.7%	0.5%	1.6%
Germany	1	2089	6.70	67.3%	22.7%	7.7%	2.3%	90.0%	70.9%	52.0%	36.0%	22.5%	11.1%
Brazil	1	2096	6.67	66.7%	22.9%	8.0%	2.4%	89.6%	71.4%	53.1%	37.4%	23.8%	11.0%
Portugal	1	1976	5.82	50.7%	28.6%	14.5%	6.3%	79.2%	50.9%	29.4%	15.4%	7.4%	7.9%
Argentina	1	1966	5.64	47.4%	29.2%	16.0%	7.4%	76.6%	48.2%	27.2%	13.9%	6.5%	7.4%
Belgium	1	1909	5.26	40.5%	30.2%	19.0%	10.3%	70.7%	38.7%	18.8%	8.1%	3.3%	5.2%
Poland	1	1821	4.53	28.5%	29.5%	24.5%	17.5%	58.0%	24.5%	9.0%	2.9%	0.9%	2.4%
France	1	1969	5.75	49.5%	28.8%	15.0%	6.7%	78.4%	49.6%	28.1%	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%
Spain	2	2013	5.91	48.5%	33.0%	13.7%	4.9%	81.5%	56.7%	36.3%	21.4%	11.1%	8.9%
Peru	2	1866	4.71	30.2%	31.3%	23.7%	14.8%	61.5%	29.9%	12.9%	4.9%	1.8%	3.5%
Switzerland	2	1845	4.54	25.8%	33.3%	25.1%	15.8%	59.1%	27.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.4%	3.0%
England	2	1914	5.12	34.7%	34.5%	20.5%	10.2%	69.2%	38.6%	19.4%	8.7%	3.6%	5.2%
Colombia	2	1911	5.09	36.4%	31.8%	20.7%	11.1%	68.2%	37.5%	18.5%	8.1%	3.3%	5.1%
Mexico	2	1833	4.30	23.1%	31.3%	26.6%	19.0%	54.4%	24.1%	9.4%	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%
Uruguay	2	1849	4.58	28.2%	31.0%	24.6%	16.2%	59.2%	27.4%	11.2%	4.0%	1.4%	3.1%
Croatia	2	1838	4.48	25.0%	33.0%	25.5%	16.5%	58.1%	26.1%	10.4%	3.6%	1.2%	2.7%
Denmark	3	1820	3.95	19.0%	27.4%	30.6%	23.0%	46.4%	19.8%	7.5%	2.4%	0.8%	2.0%
Iceland	3	1791	3.72	16.3%	25.8%	31.6%	26.4%	42.1%	16.3%	5.6%	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Costa Rica	3	1728	3.19	11.1%	21.2%	32.3%	35.3%	32.3%	10.0%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.6%
Sweden	3	1805	3.83	17.5%	26.6%	31.2%	24.7%	44.1%	17.9%	6.4%	2.0%	0.6%	1.7%
Tunisia	3	1619	2.41	5.1%	14.0%	30.3%	50.6%	19.1%	3.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Egypt	3	1654	2.66	6.7%	16.4%	31.5%	45.4%	23.2%	5.2%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Senegal	3	1748	3.37	12.7%	22.9%	32.1%	32.3%	35.6%	11.9%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.8%
Iran	3	1791	3.70	16.4%	25.4%	31.2%	27.0%	41.9%	16.2%	5.6%	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Serbia	4	1752	3.32	12.3%	22.5%	31.5%	33.6%	34.9%	11.8%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%	0.9%
Nigeria	4	1691	2.68	7.9%	16.3%	28.2%	47.6%	24.2%	6.4%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Australia	4	1718	3.04	10.1%	19.9%	31.1%	38.9%	29.9%	8.8%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%
Japan	4	1735	3.17	11.3%	20.9%	31.2%	36.6%	32.2%	10.2%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%
Morocco	4	1686	2.64	7.6%	16.0%	28.1%	48.3%	23.6%	6.1%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
Panama	4	1656	2.54	6.3%	15.1%	29.5%	49.1%	21.4%	4.8%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
South Korea	4	1702	2.92	9.1%	18.8%	30.9%	41.2%	27.9%	7.7%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%
Saudi Arabia	4	1596	2.16	4.0%	11.7%	27.5%	56.8%	15.7%	2.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

Update: draw procedure claim that there should be at least one European team in each group. Probabilities updated accordingly. 

UEFA Nations League 2018–19 Simulations - League A

Hi guys,

It has been forever since I've posted simulations here.
Thank to other great members of the community for posting their own simulations on other sites!
For those of you who don't know, the UEFA Nations League is a new bi-annual tournament that is divided into 4 leagues. Each League is composed of groups with 3-4 teams, with relegation and promotion between the leagues.
The first edition of League A got great line up:
Pot 1: Spain, Belgium, Germany, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Poland, Switzerland, France
Pot 3: Iceland, England, Netherlands, Croatia

The 4 group winner would play in a one-leg semi final and final matches to determine the first UEFA Nations League Winner.

For more information see:

UEFA Nations League: all you need to know

And now, for the reason we all got here, the simulations. The simulations are based on
World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here:

Football Club Elo Ratings

I'll start with league A:

Team	League	ELO	Relegation	Final Four	winner
Germany	A	2098.00	7.2%	70.5%	31.5%
Spain	A	2015.00	14.6%	56.1%	16.8%
Portugal	A	1982.00	18.2%	50.0%	12.9%
France	A	1959.00	24.8%	36.5%	8.9%
Belgium	A	1910.00	27.3%	38.5%	6.9%
Italy	A	1920.00	30.1%	30.8%	6.1%
England	A	1909.00	31.8%	29.1%	5.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	41.2%	21.0%	2.8%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	48.1%	18.8%	2.7%
Poland	A	1835.00	51.4%	16.8%	2.2%
Croatia	A	1833.00	51.6%	16.6%	2.1%
Iceland	A	1822.00	53.7%	15.4%	1.8%

The system of play gives a significant advantage for better teams, a lot more than UEFA EURO or the FIFA World Cup, and this is because the knockout phase start from the semi finals, and not the round of 16.

As you can see, Germany has the most chances of winning with 31.5%, but is not safe from relegation at all with 7.2% of playing in League B in 2020-1, next one is Spain with 14.6%!

I assume UEFA has done these calculations, and I wonder how could they risk having a powerhouse relegating and damaging their own product somewhat.

I believe relegating 4 teams out of 12 (and after only 4 matches played) is way too much, but the schedule is already crowded with the main tournaments qualification, and UEFA wanted the Nations League to become a part of Euro 2020 Qualifying, which adds more matches by having playoffs, so I guess UEFA settled for it.

UEFA CL 2012-13 Simulations

Barcelona and Real Madrid re huge favorites to take the title. Part of the reason for that, is that many contenders might lose early to lesser teams and make the road easier for them.

Based on 100K simulations:

Group	Country	Team	Coefficients	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Round16	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
7	Esp	FC Barcelona	25.23	14.65	0.913	0.078	0.008	0.001	0.131	0.176	0.166	0.172	0.346
4	Esp	Real Madrid	22.66	11.87	0.643	0.237	0.097	0.023	0.142	0.167	0.153	0.154	0.264
8	Eng	Manchester United	20.43	13.56	0.842	0.126	0.028	0.004	0.304	0.294	0.192	0.103	0.074
6	Ger	Bayern München	19.25	12.21	0.638	0.250	0.102	0.010	0.307	0.258	0.167	0.089	0.068
1	Por	FC Porto	17.99	11.76	0.627	0.243	0.106	0.023	0.353	0.258	0.147	0.070	0.043
4	Eng	Manchester City	15.35	8.67	0.190	0.363	0.315	0.133	0.226	0.141	0.091	0.053	0.042
4	Ger	Borussia Dortmund	13.95	8.08	0.147	0.312	0.364	0.176	0.204	0.118	0.073	0.038	0.026
5	Eng	Chelsea	16.37	10.53	0.384	0.326	0.262	0.029	0.325	0.208	0.107	0.045	0.024
2	Eng	Arsenal	14.88	9.83	0.425	0.274	0.187	0.114	0.330	0.213	0.100	0.038	0.018
5	Ukr	Shakhtar Donetsk	15.24	10.01	0.311	0.330	0.320	0.039	0.329	0.179	0.085	0.032	0.016
5	Ita	Juventus	15.06	9.91	0.301	0.325	0.333	0.041	0.326	0.173	0.082	0.030	0.015
3	Ita	AC Milan	13.93	9.45	0.366	0.285	0.215	0.133	0.343	0.187	0.082	0.027	0.012
7	Por	Benfica	13.00	8.55	0.068	0.586	0.249	0.098	0.401	0.156	0.066	0.022	0.009
3	Rus	Zenit St. Petersburg	13.08	9.05	0.315	0.285	0.241	0.159	0.337	0.165	0.068	0.022	0.008
6	Esp	Valencia	13.90	9.38	0.212	0.395	0.332	0.061	0.336	0.172	0.069	0.022	0.008
2	Ger	Schalke 04	12.25	8.60	0.267	0.285	0.250	0.198	0.320	0.151	0.058	0.017	0.006
3	Esp	Málaga CF	11.56	8.25	0.228	0.267	0.280	0.225	0.286	0.142	0.050	0.013	0.004
1	Ukr	Dinamo Kiev	11.93	8.58	0.183	0.347	0.330	0.139	0.348	0.126	0.042	0.010	0.003
6	Fra	Lille OSC	12.09	8.57	0.146	0.325	0.436	0.093	0.307	0.111	0.040	0.011	0.003
1	Fra	Paris Saint-Germain	11.56	8.39	0.170	0.330	0.350	0.149	0.337	0.114	0.038	0.009	0.003
2	Gre	Olympiakos Piraeus	9.87	7.51	0.170	0.231	0.281	0.317	0.266	0.097	0.030	0.007	0.002
2	Fra	Montpellier	8.97	7.08	0.138	0.209	0.282	0.371	0.242	0.078	0.022	0.004	0.001
4	Ned	Ajax	5.49	4.70	0.020	0.088	0.224	0.668	0.072	0.024	0.009	0.002	0.001
8	Por	Sporting Braga	10.71	8.10	0.094	0.442	0.310	0.154	0.406	0.100	0.024	0.005	0.001
7	Rus	Spartak Moscow	7.57	5.94	0.014	0.223	0.433	0.329	0.182	0.042	0.011	0.002	0.000
3	Bel	Anderlecht	7.37	6.28	0.091	0.162	0.264	0.483	0.189	0.051	0.012	0.002	0.000
8	Tur	Galatasaray	8.66	7.02	0.053	0.312	0.387	0.249	0.295	0.057	0.011	0.001	0.000
7	Sco	Celtic	5.02	4.59	0.005	0.113	0.310	0.572	0.099	0.016	0.003	0.000	0.000
1	Cro	Dinamo Zagreb	4.56	4.59	0.019	0.080	0.213	0.688	0.086	0.012	0.001	0.000	0.000
8	Rom	CFR Cluj	4.90	4.83	0.012	0.120	0.275	0.593	0.119	0.012	0.001	0.000	0.000
6	Bls	BATE Borisov	3.02	3.36	0.004	0.030	0.130	0.836	0.031	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000
5	Den	FC Nordsjælland	2.63	3.03	0.004	0.019	0.086	0.892	0.020	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000