Hi guys,
It has been forever since I've posted simulations here.
Thank to other great members of the community for posting their own simulations on other sites!
For those of you who don't know, the UEFA Nations League is a new bi-annual tournament that is divided into 4 leagues. Each League is composed of groups with 3-4 teams, with relegation and promotion between the leagues.
The first edition of League A got great line up:
Pot 1: Spain, Belgium, Germany, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Poland, Switzerland, France
Pot 3: Iceland, England, Netherlands, Croatia
It has been forever since I've posted simulations here.
Thank to other great members of the community for posting their own simulations on other sites!
For those of you who don't know, the UEFA Nations League is a new bi-annual tournament that is divided into 4 leagues. Each League is composed of groups with 3-4 teams, with relegation and promotion between the leagues.
The first edition of League A got great line up:
Pot 1: Spain, Belgium, Germany, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Poland, Switzerland, France
Pot 3: Iceland, England, Netherlands, Croatia
The 4 group winner would play in a one-leg semi final and final matches to determine the first UEFA Nations League Winner.
For more information see:
UEFA Nations League: all you need to know
And now, for the reason we all got here, the simulations. The simulations are based on
World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here:
World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here:
I'll start with league A:
| Team | League | ELO | Relegation | Final Four | winner |
| Germany | A | 2098.00 | 7.2% | 70.5% | 31.5% |
| Spain | A | 2015.00 | 14.6% | 56.1% | 16.8% |
| Portugal | A | 1982.00 | 18.2% | 50.0% | 12.9% |
| France | A | 1959.00 | 24.8% | 36.5% | 8.9% |
| Belgium | A | 1910.00 | 27.3% | 38.5% | 6.9% |
| Italy | A | 1920.00 | 30.1% | 30.8% | 6.1% |
| England | A | 1909.00 | 31.8% | 29.1% | 5.5% |
| Switzerland | A | 1845.00 | 41.2% | 21.0% | 2.8% |
| Netherlands | A | 1854.00 | 48.1% | 18.8% | 2.7% |
| Poland | A | 1835.00 | 51.4% | 16.8% | 2.2% |
| Croatia | A | 1833.00 | 51.6% | 16.6% | 2.1% |
| Iceland | A | 1822.00 | 53.7% | 15.4% | 1.8% |
The system of play gives a significant advantage for better teams, a lot more than UEFA EURO or the FIFA World Cup, and this is because the knockout phase start from the semi finals, and not the round of 16.
As you can see, Germany has the most chances of winning with 31.5%, but is not safe from relegation at all with 7.2% of playing in League B in 2020-1, next one is Spain with 14.6%!
I assume UEFA has done these calculations, and I wonder how could they risk having a powerhouse relegating and damaging their own product somewhat.
I believe relegating 4 teams out of 12 (and after only 4 matches played) is way too much, but the schedule is already crowded with the main tournaments qualification, and UEFA wanted the Nations League to become a part of Euro 2020 Qualifying, which adds more matches by having playoffs, so I guess UEFA settled for it.
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