UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying Simulations - Draw Impact

As always, the group stage draw has winners and losers.
Clearly the group of life is group G, where all teams raised there chances of qualifying
Turkey is also a winner, and it actually the second highest ranked team in its group according to ELO (although Iceland still has higher chances of qualifying including the playoffs).
Northern Ireland decreased their chances the most by drawing Germany from Pot 2.
Group F is the group of death, with 4 teams capable of qualifying and all teams lowering their chances of qualifying.

The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.

Summary by group:

Group	Difference
A	12.56%
B	-9.48%
C	-15.12%
D	-11.83%
E	-8.50%
F	-28.87%
G	35.85%
H	19.78%
I	1.64%
J	3.97%

Here are the results for 100K simulations:

Team	Group	ELO	Points	Q-normal	Q-PO	Q_Total	Before_Draw	Difference
Turkey	H	1691	17.55	50.19%	8.09%	58.27%	42.96%	15.31%
Austria	G	1765	19.67	79.68%	5.67%	85.35%	72.77%	12.57%
Slovenia	G	1561	13.37	16.74%	0.00%	16.74%	8.84%	7.90%
Poland	G	1752	19.31	76.68%	6.96%	83.63%	76.24%	7.40%
Montenegro	A	1589	8.75	16.48%	0.01%	16.49%	11.49%	5.00%
Israel	G	1561	13.37	16.69%	7.69%	24.38%	19.80%	4.59%
Scotland	I	1721	18.71	43.91%	21.27%	65.18%	61.17%	4.00%
Albania	H	1515	13.00	8.70%	0.04%	8.74%	5.18%	3.56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	J	1795	19.80	74.05%	9.54%	83.58%	80.19%	3.40%
Macedonia	G	1519	12.05	9.97%	27.74%	37.72%	34.48%	3.23%
Bulgaria	A	1629	9.70	24.04%	12.19%	36.23%	33.57%	2.66%
Serbia	B	1807	15.11	60.75%	16.28%	77.03%	74.86%	2.17%
Germany	C	1938	16.95	93.95%	3.02%	96.98%	94.88%	2.09%
Kosovo	A	1496	6.56	5.70%	16.99%	22.69%	20.65%	2.04%
Czech Republic	A	1729	12.30	56.82%	9.47%	66.29%	64.64%	1.65%
Slovakia	E	1748	12.59	46.08%	12.66%	58.74%	57.21%	1.53%
Greece	J	1613	14.64	16.05%	0.36%	16.42%	15.02%	1.40%
Italy	J	1889	22.33	90.82%	4.22%	95.04%	93.74%	1.30%
England	A	1960	18.39	96.97%	1.66%	98.62%	97.41%	1.21%
Iceland	H	1668	16.93	41.01%	12.02%	53.02%	52.56%	0.46%
Netherlands	C	1985	17.99	96.71%	1.91%	98.62%	98.20%	0.41%
Moldova	H	1326	8.11	0.47%	0.00%	0.47%	0.23%	0.24%
France	H	2094	26.71	99.64%	0.24%	99.88%	99.67%	0.21%
Latvia	G	1298	5.74	0.25%	0.00%	0.25%	0.08%	0.16%
Belgium	I	2036	25.67	97.95%	1.32%	99.27%	99.18%	0.09%
Kazakhstan	I	1330	9.41	0.29%	0.00%	0.29%	0.24%	0.04%
San Marino	I	836	1.44	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Gibraltar	D	1103	1.49	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Andorra	H	1081	3.14	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Liechtenstein	J	1138	2.95	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Malta	F	1178	3.80	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	-0.01%
Faroe Islands	F	1255	5.07	0.01%	0.00%	0.01%	0.06%	-0.06%
Cyprus	I	1415	11.23	1.16%	0.00%	1.16%	1.30%	-0.14%
Luxembourg	B	1348	4.58	0.16%	1.47%	1.63%	1.84%	-0.20%
Lithuania	B	1337	4.38	0.15%	0.00%	0.15%	0.39%	-0.25%
Azerbaijan	E	1403	4.23	0.61%	0.01%	0.62%	0.90%	-0.28%
Armenia	J	1449	9.96	1.59%	0.23%	1.82%	2.19%	-0.37%
Denmark	D	1898	16.72	83.33%	7.84%	91.17%	91.97%	-0.80%
Croatia	E	1925	17.03	89.50%	5.44%	94.94%	95.85%	-0.90%
Hungary	E	1611	9.11	13.06%	7.94%	21.00%	22.41%	-1.41%
Portugal	B	1959	18.25	90.25%	5.52%	95.77%	97.36%	-1.59%
Spain	F	2012	23.66	92.41%	4.80%	97.21%	98.81%	-1.60%
Georgia	D	1547	8.94	4.33%	33.63%	37.95%	39.59%	-1.64%
Finland	J	1622	14.89	17.49%	14.61%	32.10%	33.86%	-1.75%
Switzerland	D	1922	17.23	87.04%	6.85%	93.89%	95.82%	-1.94%
Estonia	C	1468	5.51	0.76%	0.00%	0.76%	2.85%	-2.10%
Russia	I	1753	19.51	56.70%	11.93%	68.63%	70.99%	-2.36%
Belarus	C	1539	6.97	2.14%	19.93%	22.07%	25.33%	-3.26%
Wales	E	1760	12.91	50.74%	13.22%	63.96%	71.39%	-7.43%
Republic of Ireland	D	1705	12.43	25.30%	12.05%	37.36%	44.82%	-7.46%
Sweden	F	1852	19.86	63.28%	15.06%	78.34%	87.01%	-8.67%
Romania	F	1753	17.44	30.08%	7.31%	37.39%	46.17%	-8.78%
Ukraine	B	1772	14.34	48.69%	17.55%	66.24%	75.85%	-9.61%
Norway	F	1679	15.52	14.22%	27.07%	41.29%	51.04%	-9.75%
Northern Ireland	C	1623	8.87	6.44%	8.22%	14.66%	26.93%	-12.27%

UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying Simulations - Post Nations League GS

After UEFA Nations League 2018 group stage is over, it's time to look forward to UEFA Euro 2020 main qualifying.
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
The biggest winner since the previous simulations is Norway, who managed not only to win its group, but also finish with the second best record of all Group C teams, and then guaranteed playing at home at the playoffs if it wont qualify directly.
The biggest loser is Iceland, who did not manage to make a surprise at both FIFA World Cup 2020 and UEFA Nations League 2018 GS., including some heavy defeats.

Here are the results for 100K simulations:

Team	League	ELO	Points	Rank 1	Rank 2	Rank 3	Rank 4-6	Q-normal	Q-PO	PO-Final	PO-semis	Q_Total	Up/Down
Switzerland	A	1922.00	20.29	65.6%	25.6%	7.4%	1.4%	91.2%	4.7%	2.8%	1.3%	95.8%	5.1%
Portugal	A	1959.00	20.93	72.1%	21.8%	5.3%	0.8%	93.9%	3.5%	1.8%	0.9%	97.4%	-1.2%
Netherlands	A	1985.00	21.39	76.3%	19.2%	3.9%	0.6%	95.5%	2.7%	1.3%	0.5%	98.2%	6.7%
England	A	1960.00	20.96	72.5%	21.6%	5.1%	0.8%	94.0%	3.4%	1.7%	0.9%	97.4%	1.6%
Belgium	A	2036.00	22.19	83.4%	14.3%	2.1%	0.2%	97.7%	1.5%	0.6%	0.3%	99.2%	3.2%
France	A	2094.00	23.00	89.2%	9.7%	1.1%	0.1%	98.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	99.7%	1.7%
Spain	A	2012.00	21.85	80.4%	16.4%	2.9%	0.3%	96.8%	2.1%	0.8%	0.4%	98.8%	-0.4%
Italy	A	1889.00	19.70	59.3%	28.6%	9.8%	2.2%	88.0%	5.8%	3.9%	2.4%	93.7%	-2.6%
Croatia	A	1925.00	20.36	66.3%	25.2%	7.2%	1.3%	91.5%	4.4%	2.5%	1.7%	95.8%	6.5%
Poland	A	1752.00	16.93	31.4%	34.3%	23.4%	11.0%	65.6%	10.6%	11.9%	11.9%	76.2%	-13.2%
Germany	A	1938.00	19.74	44.7%	44.4%	9.6%	1.4%	89.1%	5.8%	2.8%	2.3%	94.9%	-4.9%
Iceland	A	1668.00	14.33	6.6%	33.9%	34.9%	24.6%	40.5%	12.0%	18.9%	28.3%	52.6%	-35.4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1795.00	17.02	20.1%	47.9%	24.1%	8.0%	68.0%	12.2%	11.0%	8.8%	80.2%	19.0%
Ukraine	B	1772.00	16.53	17.0%	46.3%	26.6%	10.1%	63.3%	12.6%	12.5%	11.6%	75.9%	14.2%
Denmark	B	1898.00	19.01	37.3%	47.2%	13.1%	2.4%	84.5%	7.5%	4.3%	3.7%	92.0%	14.9%
Sweden	B	1852.00	18.13	29.1%	48.9%	17.8%	4.3%	78.0%	9.0%	6.4%	6.6%	87.0%	11.7%
Russia	B	1753.00	16.16	14.7%	44.6%	28.6%	12.2%	59.3%	11.7%	12.2%	16.8%	71.0%	17.0%
Austria	B	1765.00	16.39	16.1%	45.7%	27.3%	10.9%	61.8%	11.0%	10.8%	16.5%	72.8%	18.9%
Wales	B	1760.00	16.29	15.6%	45.3%	27.6%	11.5%	60.9%	10.5%	10.6%	18.0%	71.4%	-0.1%
Czech Republic	B	1729.00	15.63	11.8%	42.3%	30.8%	15.1%	54.0%	10.6%	11.5%	23.6%	64.6%	15.6%
Slovakia	B	1748.00	15.45	11.3%	32.1%	40.5%	16.1%	43.4%	13.8%	13.9%	28.4%	57.2%	-9.8%
Turkey	B	1691.00	14.24	6.4%	25.0%	43.7%	24.8%	31.4%	11.5%	14.2%	41.5%	43.0%	-21.3%
Republic of Ireland	B	1705.00	14.53	7.5%	26.9%	42.9%	22.6%	34.4%	10.4%	11.7%	40.2%	44.8%	-26.2%
Northern Ireland	B	1623.00	12.83	3.0%	16.7%	42.8%	37.4%	19.7%	7.2%	11.5%	51.3%	26.9%	-20.6%
Scotland	C	1721.00	14.88	8.9%	28.8%	42.2%	20.2%	37.7%	23.5%	21.0%	17.8%	61.2%	5.9%
Norway	C	1679.00	14.01	5.6%	23.7%	44.0%	26.8%	29.2%	21.8%	22.6%	26.4%	51.0%	28.2%
Serbia	C	1807.00	16.67	18.7%	37.7%	34.2%	9.4%	56.4%	18.4%	10.9%	14.3%	74.9%	12.4%
Finland	C	1622.00	12.80	2.9%	16.7%	42.7%	37.7%	19.6%	14.3%	18.9%	47.2%	33.9%	14.0%
Bulgaria	C	1629.00	12.94	3.3%	17.5%	42.9%	36.4%	20.7%	12.8%	17.1%	48.8%	33.6%	9.0%
Israel	C	1561.00	11.55	1.3%	10.4%	37.9%	50.4%	11.7%	8.1%	14.0%	60.7%	19.8%	8.2%
Hungary	C	1611.00	11.87	2.3%	12.1%	28.6%	57.0%	14.4%	8.0%	10.2%	46.4%	22.4%	-3.9%
Romania	C	1753.00	14.79	10.9%	28.0%	33.6%	27.5%	38.9%	7.3%	4.9%	18.2%	46.2%	1.1%
Greece	C	1613.00	11.93	2.4%	12.2%	28.9%	56.5%	14.6%	0.4%	0.5%	1.8%	15.0%	-23.6%
Albania	C	1515.00	9.89	0.5%	4.6%	18.5%	76.4%	5.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	5.2%	-16.9%
Montenegro	C	1589.00	11.41	1.6%	9.8%	26.8%	61.7%	11.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	-12.9%
Cyprus	C	1415.00	8.00	0.1%	1.2%	8.8%	89.9%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	-1.0%
Estonia	C	1468.00	8.96	0.2%	2.6%	13.3%	83.8%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	-3.7%
Slovenia	C	1561.00	10.84	1.2%	7.7%	23.7%	67.5%	8.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.8%	-23.3%
Lithuania	C	1337.00	6.68	0.0%	0.4%	4.2%	95.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	-1.5%
Georgia	D	1547.00	10.56	0.9%	6.6%	22.2%	70.3%	7.5%	32.1%	28.0%	32.4%	39.6%	19.3%
Macedonia	D	1519.00	9.13	0.5%	4.2%	14.9%	80.4%	4.7%	29.8%	32.1%	33.4%	34.5%	9.1%
Kosovo	D	1496.00	8.68	0.4%	3.2%	12.7%	83.7%	3.6%	17.1%	20.2%	59.2%	20.7%	16.5%
Belarus	D	1539.00	9.52	0.7%	5.2%	17.0%	77.0%	6.0%	19.4%	16.6%	58.1%	25.3%	-1.0%
Luxembourg	D	1348.00	6.03	0.0%	0.3%	3.1%	96.6%	0.4%	1.5%	2.8%	15.9%	1.8%	-0.7%
Armenia	D	1449.00	7.78	0.1%	1.8%	8.5%	89.6%	1.9%	0.2%	0.3%	1.0%	2.2%	-11.4%
Azerbaijan	D	1403.00	6.95	0.1%	0.8%	5.5%	93.6%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	-10.1%
Kazakhstan	D	1330.00	5.73	0.0%	0.2%	2.5%	97.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-3.1%
Moldova	D	1326.00	5.70	0.0%	0.2%	2.3%	97.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-2.8%
Gibraltar	D	1103.00	3.06	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	99.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Faroe Islands	D	1255.00	4.70	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	99.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	-1.7%
Latvia	D	1298.00	5.76	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	98.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	-6.0%
Liechtenstein	D	1138.00	3.49	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	99.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%
Andorra	D	1081.00	2.88	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Malta	D	1178.00	3.99	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	99.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.6%
San Marino	D	836.00	1.32	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

UEFA Euro Qualifying - Nations League Impact

Hello,

Today I will make an analysis of the impact of the new change in UEFA Euro Qualifing System, in which 4 teams would qualify from the Nations League Playoffs.
I included in the analysis the following scenarios:

1. The real system of UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifing
2. A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league above (lowest pot) 
3. A scenario for each team where it is assigned to one league below (highest pot) 
4. A system in which there are 8 group of 7-8 teams, where top 3 teams in each group qualify.
5. A system in which there are 9 group of 6-7 teams, where top 2 teams + 3 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify, and the other 3rd place teams go to playoffs (previous system).
6. A system in which there are 11 group of 5 teams, where top 2 teams + 2 best 3rd placed teams in each group qualify.

The most interesting finding is that being in League A actually improves the chances of a team to qualify to Euro 2020 comparing to group B, and being in League B improves the chances of a team to qualify comparing to League C. It has two reasons:

1. In 99.8% of the simulations, at least 8 League A teams qualified through the main qualifing, making all league A teams qualify at least for the playoffs. For League B, in 87% of the simulation all teams qualifies at least for the playoffs.
2. The main qualifying seeding is based on the Nations League final standing, and higher league means higher seeding.

All scenarios are done with one million simulations of the draw and the matches (Elo ratings as of 1.12.2017). 
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

Here are the full results:

Team	League	ELO	Q-normal	Q-up	Q-down	Q-8-groups	Q_9-groups	Q_11-groups
Germany	A	2098.00	99.8%		99.6%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%
Spain	A	2015.00	99.2%		98.7%	99.5%	99.6%	99.2%
Portugal	A	1982.00	98.7%		97.9%	99.2%	99.3%	98.7%
France	A	1959.00	98.0%		96.6%	98.7%	99.0%	98.2%
Italy	A	1920.00	96.5%		94.3%	97.7%	98.1%	96.8%
Belgium	A	1910.00	96.0%		94.1%	97.2%	97.7%	96.4%
England	A	1909.00	96.0%		94.2%	97.3%	97.7%	96.5%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	91.7%		88.9%	92.4%	93.1%	89.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	90.9%		86.9%	93.5%	94.0%	92.3%
Poland	A	1835.00	89.6%		86.2%	90.6%	93.3%	91.6%
Croatia	A	1833.00	89.2%		86.0%	90.4%	91.0%	91.3%
Iceland	A	1822.00	88.0%		84.0%	89.2%	89.7%	90.2%
Denmark	B	1781.00	77.1%	82.2%	72.2%	81.3%	80.3%	79.9%
Sweden	B	1771.00	75.6%	81.0%	70.8%	79.6%	82.0%	78.4%
Wales	B	1751.00	71.2%	77.5%	65.0%	78.0%	78.6%	74.8%
Republic of Ireland	B	1750.00	71.0%	77.5%	65.2%	75.7%	74.6%	74.5%
Slovakia	B	1732.00	67.1%	72.9%	61.0%	74.7%	74.6%	71.2%
Turkey	B	1721.00	64.4%	71.2%	57.7%	69.6%	66.9%	60.2%
Ukraine	B	1709.00	61.6%	68.9%	54.5%	65.4%	69.1%	66.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1706.00	61.1%	67.4%	53.8%	65.9%	64.3%	66.1%
Russia	B	1680.00	54.3%	62.0%	46.0%	62.8%	62.0%	60.3%
Austria	B	1678.00	53.6%	61.0%	45.8%	62.2%	61.9%	60.0%
Czech Republic	B	1660.00	49.1%	56.7%	41.7%	54.6%	51.6%	46.5%
Northern Ireland	B	1654.00	47.6%	55.5%	39.8%	53.2%	50.4%	54.6%
Serbia	C	1737.00	62.6%	67.9%	78.4%	64.1%	61.5%	63.7%
Scotland	C	1708.00	55.2%	61.8%	72.1%	57.2%	63.2%	57.7%
Romania	C	1669.00	44.9%	51.2%	64.2%	47.2%	53.0%	48.4%
Greece	C	1647.00	38.7%	45.7%	59.0%	41.9%	38.5%	43.2%
Slovenia	C	1618.00	32.0%	38.4%	52.1%	34.4%	31.1%	36.8%
Hungary	C	1593.00	26.2%	33.2%	44.9%	29.1%	33.3%	31.6%
Bulgaria	C	1590.00	24.2%	32.3%	44.6%	21.9%	24.2%	22.2%
Montenegro	C	1590.00	24.3%	32.1%	44.7%	22.2%	24.4%	30.8%
Norway	C	1578.00	23.1%	30.3%	42.8%	25.5%	22.2%	28.4%
Albania	C	1573.00	21.8%	28.7%	40.7%	24.5%	21.2%	27.3%
Finland	C	1567.00	19.7%	28.5%	39.5%	17.8%	19.7%	18.7%
Israel	C	1514.00	11.5%	17.0%	28.1%	10.2%	11.2%	11.4%
Estonia	C	1476.00	6.7%	12.7%	21.0%	6.3%	4.9%	7.6%
Cyprus	C	1399.00	2.2%	5.1%	9.7%	2.0%	1.5%	2.9%
Lithuania	C	1385.00	1.8%	4.2%	9.5%	1.6%	1.1%	2.5%
Belarus	D	1489.00	26.5%	8.1%		6.9%	5.8%	8.6%
Macedonia	D	1484.00	25.4%	7.9%		6.5%	5.5%	8.2%
Georgia	D	1457.00	20.2%	6.0%		4.5%	3.6%	6.0%
Armenia	D	1439.00	13.8%	4.9%		3.3%	2.7%	4.8%
Azerbaijan	D	1382.00	10.7%	1.8%		1.5%	1.0%	2.3%
Latvia	D	1355.00	6.0%	1.2%		0.9%	0.6%	1.0%
Kosovo	D	1351.00	4.2%	1.1%		0.6%	0.5%	1.0%
Kazakhstan	D	1320.00	3.4%	0.7%		0.4%	0.2%	0.6%
Moldova	D	1310.00	2.9%	0.5%		0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
Luxembourg	D	1285.00	2.4%	0.4%		0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Faroe Islands	D	1258.00	1.7%	0.3%		0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Malta	D	1204.00	0.6%	0.1%		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Liechtenstein	D	1128.00	0.1%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Gibraltar	D	1049.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Andorra	D	993.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Marino	D	835.00	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%