10.10.10 Update

Group	Team	Qualifing	Coefficients	Points	1st	Best RU	PO Winner	PO loser
1	Germany	99.45%	39444.96	26.50467	93.17%	4.05%	2.24%	0.35%
1	Turkey	61.15%	29231.46	20.80083	6.50%	16.01%	38.64%	25.76%
1	Austria	2.41%	24187.37	14.48966	0.29%	0.57%	1.56%	6.18%
1	Belgium	1.01%	21870.75	13.68264	0.04%	0.05%	0.92%	3.65%
1	Kazakhstan	0.00%	14710.53	4.26622	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
1	Azerbaijan	0.00%	14618.22	6.21185	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%
2	Russia	75.19%	32506.6	21.0524	54.00%	2.14%	19.05%	9.25%
2	Slovakia	49.92%	28828.55	19.68266	30.54%	7.90%	11.47%	17.82%
2	Republic of Ireland	24.40%	26750.83	17.91824	13.67%	1.26%	9.47%	15.70%
2	FYR Macedonia	3.12%	21141.92	13.664	1.71%	0.30%	1.11%	3.98%
2	Armenia	0.14%	17068.1	11.09984	0.08%	0.03%	0.03%	0.49%
2	Andorra	0.00%	9015.115	1.42283	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Italy	87.95%	32739.05	21.35661	75.50%	0.63%	11.83%	4.43%
3	Serbia	36.41%	28908.87	16.67023	13.14%	2.95%	20.33%	12.38%
3	Northern Ireland	12.67%	25590.36	15.77575	6.15%	0.92%	5.60%	18.82%
3	Slovenia	10.91%	25833.64	14.67628	4.83%	0.54%	5.54%	12.42%
3	Estonia	0.76%	18501	11.6953	0.39%	0.07%	0.31%	3.26%
3	Faroe Islands	0.00%	11653.22	2.86263	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	France	89.21%	30925.73	21.24166	76.89%	1.82%	10.49%	4.15%
4	Romania	30.28%	26022.6	16.53484	11.54%	1.92%	16.82%	18.21%
4	Bosnia and Herzegovina	9.64%	24805.63	14.61519	4.28%	0.23%	5.14%	14.54%
4	Belarus	13.16%	23457.22	15.39478	6.33%	2.47%	4.36%	15.41%
4	Albania	1.69%	19139.84	11.98373	0.97%	0.10%	0.62%	3.71%
4	Luxembourg	0.00%	12380.96	2.29829	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Netherlands	98.08%	40819.16	25.37415	83.89%	4.40%	9.80%	1.35%
5	Sweden	70.53%	30504.95	20.95582	15.74%	13.61%	41.18%	18.48%
5	Finland	1.55%	26008.94	13.24803	0.08%	0.38%	1.09%	2.51%
5	Hungary	1.77%	24214.02	14.51445	0.29%	0.14%	1.34%	4.97%
5	Moldova	0.08%	17480.24	11.54814	0.00%	0.01%	0.07%	0.69%
5	San Marino	0.00%	7932.174	0.52662	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Croatia	95.40%	33379.27	23.25244	86.44%	2.21%	6.76%	2.80%
6	Greece	43.61%	29966.42	17.93773	9.88%	7.98%	25.75%	18.81%
6	Israel	14.42%	26739.32	15.63596	3.12%	1.44%	9.87%	15.81%
6	Latvia	1.58%	23835.94	12.69435	0.38%	0.03%	1.17%	5.30%
6	Georgia	0.37%	16911.11	11.08981	0.18%	0.04%	0.15%	1.91%
6	Malta	0.00%	11105.96	2.40775	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	England	98.26%	34798.18	19.16602	93.96%	1.25%	3.05%	0.78%
7	Switzerland	12.45%	26984.81	9.47836	0.78%	0.36%	11.32%	8.87%
7	Bulgaria	8.81%	24725.7	9.87251	0.88%	0.29%	7.64%	13.90%
7	Wales	0.57%	19892.37	5.63327	0.07%	0.07%	0.43%	1.72%
7	Montenegro	14.58%	21583.2	12.53185	4.32%	2.53%	7.74%	40.05%
8	Portugal	60.31%	31199.25	14.66546	23.41%	10.76%	26.13%	6.26%
8	Denmark	37.68%	28641.52	13.97547	19.76%	3.01%	14.92%	9.92%
8	Norway	72.30%	27419.06	17.11014	56.76%	4.17%	11.37%	12.79%
8	Cyprus	0.10%	18460.49	5.63941	0.05%	0.01%	0.04%	0.40%
8	Iceland	0.05%	15699.46	4.71622	0.02%	0.00%	0.03%	0.19%
9	Spain	98.98%	42653.89	19.98435	94.27%	0.45%	4.26%	0.40%
9	Czech Republic	50.11%	28652.62	13.36342	4.83%	2.57%	42.70%	17.79%
9	Scotland	5.04%	23970.18	10.2374	0.46%	0.09%	4.50%	10.29%
9	Lithuania	3.91%	22581.07	10.62106	0.44%	0.28%	3.19%	13.48%
9	Liechtenstein	0.00%	11881.97	1.99649	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%

Main tournament:

Team	GS	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
Spain	15.85%	19.42%	15.31%	12.16%	36.25%
Netherlands	22.02%	27.96%	20.50%	12.88%	14.73%
Germany	25.50%	29.40%	20.08%	12.60%	11.87%
England	30.44%	30.43%	18.63%	10.35%	8.40%
Ukraine	54.51%	22.97%	12.47%	5.68%	4.38%
Portugal	22.16%	18.33%	10.17%	5.52%	4.12%
Italy	39.52%	26.56%	12.73%	5.72%	3.43%
France	42.87%	25.45%	12.23%	5.48%	3.18%
Croatia	46.37%	28.47%	12.59%	5.30%	2.68%
Sweden	36.90%	19.61%	8.52%	3.67%	1.82%
Poland	65.54%	20.64%	8.83%	3.33%	1.67%
Russia	40.10%	21.24%	8.81%	3.44%	1.59%
Czech Republic	26.69%	13.33%	6.08%	2.60%	1.40%
Turkey	36.37%	15.38%	6.06%	2.34%	1.00%
Norway	48.22%	15.85%	5.59%	1.87%	0.77%
Denmark	21.54%	9.75%	4.09%	1.56%	0.75%
Serbia	20.82%	9.47%	3.90%	1.48%	0.74%
Greece	29.69%	9.53%	3.06%	0.99%	0.35%
Romania	19.75%	6.94%	2.44%	0.84%	0.31%
Slovakia	38.37%	8.51%	2.33%	0.57%	0.14%
Switzerland	8.19%	2.71%	1.05%	0.37%	0.14%
Republic of Ireland	17.91%	4.51%	1.40%	0.44%	0.13%
Israel	10.98%	2.50%	0.69%	0.20%	0.05%
Bulgaria	6.75%	1.48%	0.43%	0.12%	0.04%
Slovenia	8.43%	1.77%	0.50%	0.18%	0.03%
Northern Ireland	10.95%	1.37%	0.27%	0.06%	0.02%
Scotland	4.06%	0.73%	0.19%	0.05%	0.01%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	8.01%	1.28%	0.27%	0.07%	0.01%
Belarus	11.30%	1.51%	0.29%	0.05%	0.01%
Finland	1.29%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
Montenegro	13.17%	1.20%	0.17%	0.03%	0.00%
Hungary	1.55%	0.18%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
Austria	2.16%	0.20%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%
Belgium	0.89%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
Albania	1.54%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
FYR Macedonia	2.70%	0.33%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
Lithuania	3.51%	0.34%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
Latvia	1.44%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
Wales	0.49%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
Estonia	0.72%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Iceland	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Georgia	0.36%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Armenia	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Cyprus	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Moldova	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Azerbaijan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Kazakhstan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Andorra	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Faroe Islands	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Luxembourg	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
San Marino	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Malta	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Liechtenstein	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

UEFA EURO 2012 updated

Here is an update after the game that were played so far.:

Group	Team	Qualifing	Coefficients	Points	1st	Best RU	PO Winner	PO loser
1	Germany	98.44%	39248.75	25.80343	85.11%	6.98%	6.35%	1.13%
1	Turkey	66.58%	29426.43	21.33608	14.54%	19.40%	32.64%	24.68%
1	Austria	1.91%	23929.36	13.87962	0.31%	0.53%	1.07%	4.62%
1	Belgium	0.55%	21381.17	12.48784	0.05%	0.04%	0.47%	2.03%
1	Kazakhstan	0.00%	15105.49	5.18596	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
1	Azerbaijan	0.01%	14827.44	6.65723	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%
2	Russia	48.12%	31789.28	19.30573	24.12%	2.53%	21.48%	11.32%
2	Slovakia	65.50%	29489.82	21.61215	52.00%	4.17%	9.33%	16.36%
2	Republic of Ireland	35.56%	27255.99	19.35627	22.96%	2.58%	10.02%	17.75%
2	FYR Macedonia	2.05%	20965.11	13.20926	0.91%	0.40%	0.74%	3.15%
2	Armenia	0.03%	16140.1	8.90988	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.16%
2	Andorra	0.00%	9141.26	1.7243	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Italy	84.64%	32970.41	22.10373	66.36%	1.77%	16.51%	6.35%
3	Serbia	56.03%	29978.36	19.29136	26.33%	3.29%	26.42%	17.37%
3	Northern Ireland	9.82%	25612.81	15.73195	4.93%	1.39%	3.50%	12.38%
3	Slovenia	5.87%	25741.68	14.4363	2.36%	0.34%	3.17%	7.06%
3	Estonia	0.08%	17351.38	8.94379	0.03%	0.01%	0.04%	0.41%
3	Faroe Islands	0.00%	11741.61	3.01161	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	France	74.70%	30475.85	20.17365	57.34%	1.85%	15.51%	6.75%
4	Romania	35.47%	26338.91	17.32178	20.57%	2.62%	12.28%	14.20%
4	Bosnia and Herzegovina	11.15%	24960.86	15.01844	6.85%	0.27%	4.03%	12.14%
4	Belarus	20.40%	23973.59	16.83284	13.62%	1.64%	5.14%	18.89%
4	Albania	2.41%	19282.31	12.36118	1.62%	0.15%	0.65%	3.90%
4	Luxembourg	0.00%	12090.96	1.65424	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Netherlands	97.24%	40690.68	24.82912	80.81%	4.94%	11.48%	1.73%
5	Sweden	70.33%	30491.31	20.96268	18.63%	12.80%	38.91%	19.11%
5	Finland	1.55%	26010.82	13.26194	0.14%	0.37%	1.05%	2.77%
5	Hungary	1.68%	24122.48	14.46484	0.39%	0.15%	1.13%	4.46%
5	Moldova	0.16%	17613.28	11.91882	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%	0.98%
5	San Marino	0.00%	8014.92	0.54381	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Croatia	86.80%	32838.77	21.61265	72.11%	1.85%	12.84%	5.84%
6	Greece	35.66%	29658.05	17.15673	12.86%	5.28%	17.53%	14.04%
6	Israel	26.48%	27235.73	17.0134	13.35%	2.65%	10.48%	19.10%
6	Latvia	2.99%	24031.01	13.25461	1.43%	0.08%	1.48%	7.06%
6	Georgia	0.42%	16723.82	10.57527	0.24%	0.04%	0.14%	1.59%
6	Malta	0.00%	11244.19	2.79099	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	England	98.52%	34841.25	19.18923	94.48%	1.18%	2.87%	0.71%
7	Switzerland	28.12%	27867.74	11.07634	2.86%	2.63%	22.63%	19.43%
7	Bulgaria	5.08%	23858.46	8.1453	0.39%	0.31%	4.38%	8.70%
7	Wales	2.21%	20609.07	7.06778	0.32%	0.20%	1.69%	6.12%
7	Montenegro	7.21%	20605.23	10.62739	1.96%	1.02%	4.23%	23.90%
8	Portugal	50.41%	30630.09	13.71186	21.20%	5.85%	23.36%	6.05%
8	Denmark	50.60%	29003.14	14.66327	32.63%	3.32%	14.65%	11.77%
8	Norway	62.86%	26929.42	15.94794	45.81%	4.10%	12.95%	16.14%
8	Cyprus	0.50%	18915.58	6.55764	0.33%	0.03%	0.15%	1.33%
8	Iceland	0.08%	15703.54	4.72685	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.27%
9	Spain	98.50%	42597.97	19.73499	93.49%	0.42%	4.59%	0.54%
9	Czech Republic	40.69%	28174.59	12.58672	4.51%	2.06%	34.12%	16.18%
9	Scotland	7.89%	24188.92	10.79153	1.13%	0.36%	6.40%	16.11%
9	Lithuania	4.72%	22630.22	10.77827	0.87%	0.36%	3.48%	15.37%
9	Liechtenstein	0.00%	11888.52	2.00947	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%

 
Slovakia seem to gain some ground on the expense of Russia.

And the main tournament:

Team	GS	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
Spain	15.01%	19.53%	15.25%	12.11%	36.60%
Netherlands	21.39%	27.61%	20.47%	12.98%	14.79%
Germany	24.41%	29.21%	20.31%	12.64%	11.87%
England	29.53%	30.72%	18.98%	10.72%	8.58%
Ukraine	53.24%	23.56%	12.71%	5.97%	4.53%
Portugal	18.40%	15.10%	8.76%	4.68%	3.48%
Italy	36.75%	26.05%	12.80%	5.72%	3.32%
France	35.87%	21.24%	10.26%	4.63%	2.71%
Croatia	41.76%	26.10%	11.57%	4.92%	2.45%
Sweden	36.71%	19.33%	8.63%	3.71%	1.96%
Poland	64.68%	21.15%	8.99%	3.38%	1.80%
Serbia	31.16%	14.93%	6.27%	2.44%	1.23%
Czech Republic	21.41%	11.05%	4.97%	2.11%	1.16%
Turkey	38.91%	17.00%	6.87%	2.68%	1.12%
Russia	25.43%	13.65%	5.74%	2.24%	1.06%
Denmark	28.44%	13.52%	5.48%	2.21%	0.95%
Norway	41.07%	14.25%	5.08%	1.74%	0.72%
Romania	22.88%	7.98%	3.10%	1.10%	0.40%
Switzerland	18.05%	6.63%	2.32%	0.81%	0.31%
Greece	23.97%	7.92%	2.65%	0.86%	0.28%
Republic of Ireland	25.84%	6.78%	2.07%	0.62%	0.24%
Slovakia	49.82%	11.58%	3.06%	0.83%	0.22%
Israel	19.94%	4.68%	1.41%	0.35%	0.11%
Scotland	6.30%	1.20%	0.30%	0.07%	0.02%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	9.29%	1.42%	0.34%	0.07%	0.02%
Bulgaria	3.90%	0.84%	0.24%	0.08%	0.02%
Slovenia	4.53%	0.98%	0.27%	0.08%	0.02%
Belarus	17.48%	2.34%	0.47%	0.09%	0.01%
Northern Ireland	8.42%	1.11%	0.21%	0.06%	0.01%
Lithuania	4.19%	0.44%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
Wales	1.87%	0.27%	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%
Montenegro	6.52%	0.59%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
FYR Macedonia	1.80%	0.20%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
Hungary	1.46%	0.17%	0.03%	0.01%	0.00%
Austria	1.69%	0.17%	0.03%	0.01%	0.00%
Finland	1.29%	0.19%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
Latvia	2.68%	0.27%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
Albania	2.21%	0.18%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
Belgium	0.49%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
Cyprus	0.48%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Georgia	0.40%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Moldova	0.15%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Estonia	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Iceland	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Armenia	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Azerbaijan	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Kazakhstan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Andorra	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Faroe Islands	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Luxembourg	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
San Marino	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Malta	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Liechtenstein	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Champions League 2010-11

Well, I must admit that this set of simulations is probably less accurate that the EURO one...
The ranking used for simulations is a manipulation of UEFA coefficients (weighted average of the last 5 years, with weights (1,2,3,4,5)).
The way I used the rankings is making the points percentage (2 points for win) of the home team
1.3*home coefficients/away coefficients. 1.3 is the number found most accurate when I tested previous results.
I'm counting on Voros (see links) to publish club rankings and then I will make an update.

Group	Team	Coefficients	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Qualifing	2nd Round	Quarter	Semi	Finalist	Champion
1	Internazionale	17.76	11.89	53.10%	36.80%	9.38%	0.73%	89.90%	35.59%	25.54%	14.54%	7.66%	6.57%
1	Werder Bremen	16.28	11.24	41.71%	44.23%	12.64%	1.42%	85.94%	39.79%	23.83%	12.17%	5.93%	4.22%
1	Tottenham Hotspur	6.45	6.68	4.92%	16.67%	57.42%	20.99%	21.59%	16.13%	4.21%	0.99%	0.22%	0.06%
1	FC Twente Enschede	2.87	3.52	0.26%	2.31%	20.57%	76.86%	2.57%	2.31%	0.22%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Olympique Lyon	18.39	12.63	68.75%	25.26%	5.42%	0.57%	94.01%	36.89%	29.34%	15.40%	7.43%	4.96%
2	Benfica	13.18	10.07	26.18%	50.59%	18.66%	4.58%	76.77%	50.02%	17.85%	6.22%	1.99%	0.68%
2	Schalke 04	6.26	6.43	4.44%	18.60%	50.03%	26.92%	23.05%	18.81%	3.54%	0.60%	0.08%	0.01%
2	Hapoel Tel-Aviv	3.51	4.10	0.63%	5.55%	25.89%	67.93%	6.18%	5.54%	0.58%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Manchester United	22.43	14.43	78.93%	18.67%	2.40%	0.00%	97.60%	23.10%	25.76%	18.23%	11.78%	18.72%
3	Valencia	13.62	10.81	17.93%	58.09%	23.87%	0.11%	76.02%	49.08%	17.27%	6.53%	2.26%	0.88%
3	Glasgow Rangers	7.46	8.12	3.14%	23.23%	72.75%	0.88%	26.37%	21.57%	3.89%	0.77%	0.13%	0.02%
3	Bursaspor	0.73	0.89	0.00%	0.02%	0.98%	99.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	FC Barcelona	22.84	14.48	89.46%	9.88%	0.63%	0.03%	99.34%	22.38%	26.30%	18.57%	11.97%	20.12%
4	Panathinaikos	11.67	9.10	9.31%	62.89%	21.41%	6.39%	72.20%	53.84%	13.14%	3.83%	1.10%	0.30%
4	FC København	5.46	5.72	0.99%	18.61%	47.32%	33.09%	19.59%	17.01%	2.19%	0.33%	0.05%	0.01%
4	Rubin Kazan	3.74	4.21	0.24%	8.62%	30.64%	60.49%	8.87%	8.06%	0.73%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Bayern München	20.94	13.81	73.02%	24.87%	2.09%	0.03%	97.89%	29.64%	27.93%	17.72%	10.53%	12.06%
5	AS Roma	14.96	11.15	25.42%	61.37%	12.80%	0.41%	86.79%	53.43%	20.53%	8.20%	3.16%	1.47%
5	FC Basel	5.78	6.70	1.55%	13.34%	74.18%	10.93%	14.89%	12.79%	1.82%	0.25%	0.03%	0.00%
5	CFR Cluj	1.76	2.20	0.01%	0.42%	10.94%	88.63%	0.43%	0.42%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Chelsea	21.71	14.44	79.62%	19.39%	0.99%	0.00%	99.01%	27.27%	29.01%	18.88%	11.01%	12.83%
6	Olympique Marseille	14.26	11.01	19.51%	67.74%	12.39%	0.37%	87.25%	60.59%	18.15%	6.10%	1.80%	0.60%
6	Spartak Moscow	5.51	6.53	0.87%	12.54%	75.92%	10.68%	13.40%	12.05%	1.20%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%
6	MSK Zilina	1.63	2.04	0.00%	0.34%	10.71%	88.95%	0.34%	0.33%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	AC Milan	16.32	11.88	47.52%	36.45%	15.80%	0.23%	83.97%	38.89%	24.59%	12.01%	5.24%	3.24%
7	Real Madrid	15.70	11.62	42.77%	39.17%	17.76%	0.29%	81.94%	40.56%	23.65%	10.80%	4.45%	2.49%
7	Ajax	8.36	8.37	9.71%	24.27%	63.64%	2.38%	33.98%	25.48%	6.59%	1.54%	0.31%	0.07%
7	AJ Auxerre	1.44	1.80	0.00%	0.11%	2.80%	97.10%	0.11%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Arsenal	20.36	13.66	69.78%	27.15%	3.05%	0.03%	96.93%	30.97%	29.05%	17.66%	9.79%	9.45%
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	14.96	11.32	27.99%	57.88%	13.85%	0.28%	85.87%	52.65%	20.91%	8.04%	3.03%	1.25%
8	Sporting Braga	6.20	7.16	2.24%	14.82%	77.67%	5.27%	17.06%	14.57%	2.11%	0.33%	0.04%	0.01%
8	Partizan Belgrade	1.44	1.80	0.00%	0.15%	5.43%	94.43%	0.15%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Barcelona are the favorites and then Manchester United 2nd.

UEFA EURO 2012 Simulation

This simulation and all the next UEFA EURO 2012 simulations are based on the latest Voros Mccracken's rankings.
More on his rankings on http://vorosmccracken.com/
The simulations use seeding for the PO draw with the new UEFA coefficient rankings that will be given the simulated results.
There were 100K simulations. I can easily make more than that but it seems redundant.
I will start by publishing the simulations as of the beginning of the qualifying:
the teams are ordered by their average coefficients at the end of the campaign (I thought it would be interesting to see it and compare it to the probability of qualifing).

Team	Coefficients	Attack	Defence	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Best RU	PO Winner	PO loser	Qualifing
Spain	42495.07	13.08	358.09	19.58	84.22%	14.32%	1.36%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	3.52%	9.72%	1.08%	97.46%
Netherlands	40538.58	11.89	316.97	24.43	80.20%	17.58%	1.94%	0.25%	0.03%	0.00%	3.79%	11.78%	2.01%	95.77%
Germany	38937.86	13.86	232.63	24.91	83.68%	15.15%	1.07%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	4.83%	8.65%	1.66%	97.16%
England	33909.74	11.81	245.81	17.11	75.91%	17.48%	5.11%	1.27%	0.23%	0.00%	2.08%	12.15%	3.25%	90.15%
Croatia	32644.45	9.78	200.95	21.39	59.32%	25.42%	11.80%	3.09%	0.37%	0.00%	3.06%	14.85%	7.51%	77.23%
Italy	32609.73	9.51	230.4	21.23	53.69%	31.94%	11.22%	2.93%	0.23%	0.00%	3.48%	20.21%	8.25%	77.37%
Russia	32577.46	9.37	194.2	21.33	56.65%	25.60%	12.81%	4.59%	0.35%	0.00%	2.30%	14.44%	8.86%	73.39%
Portugal	32358.90	9.93	284.43	16.96	61.55%	26.63%	10.77%	0.96%	0.09%	0.00%	4.48%	17.16%	4.98%	83.20%
France	30788.67	8.49	259.55	21.17	56.40%	27.73%	11.13%	3.91%	0.83%	0.00%	3.60%	16.54%	7.59%	76.54%
Serbia	30201.30	9.15	200.69	19.99	36.43%	40.04%	17.51%	5.44%	0.57%	0.01%	3.95%	21.12%	14.98%	61.49%
Sweden	30180.81	8.75	226.04	20.32	17.88%	62.42%	14.91%	4.06%	0.72%	0.00%	8.52%	34.56%	19.35%	60.95%
Greece	30082.14	7.72	180.93	18.37	21.63%	34.41%	29.24%	12.11%	2.55%	0.05%	3.56%	16.32%	14.54%	41.50%
Ukraine	29973.93	8.33	209.4	0.00	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Czech Republic	29353.46	9.49	214.32	15.00	14.05%	64.80%	17.21%	3.90%	0.04%	0.00%	9.03%	37.01%	18.76%	60.09%
Turkey	28971.20	9.72	182.2	20.14	15.21%	68.31%	13.16%	3.09%	0.23%	0.01%	13.45%	30.30%	24.56%	58.96%
Denmark	28813.07	9.77	186.18	14.26	24.16%	39.96%	30.42%	4.68%	0.79%	0.00%	5.08%	18.59%	16.28%	47.83%
Switzerland	28473.28	7.65	202.45	12.31	14.26%	40.18%	26.83%	13.52%	5.21%	0.00%	3.13%	19.43%	17.62%	36.82%
Slovakia	28336.74	9.31	128.5	18.33	20.50%	31.46%	28.91%	16.96%	2.16%	0.00%	1.84%	9.92%	19.70%	32.26%
Israel	27460.65	8.46	146.34	17.60	16.39%	30.27%	33.67%	15.76%	3.80%	0.11%	2.45%	9.48%	18.34%	28.32%
Romania	26986.33	8.77	183.28	19.17	30.21%	37.50%	20.16%	9.35%	2.77%	0.01%	3.75%	15.09%	18.65%	49.06%
Republic of Ireland	26814.13	6.33	201.68	18.11	17.73%	29.29%	31.28%	19.16%	2.53%	0.01%	2.37%	9.26%	17.66%	29.37%
Finland	26666.04	6.1	150.66	15.00	1.23%	11.35%	42.21%	32.29%	12.91%	0.00%	0.53%	2.73%	8.09%	4.50%
Slovenia	26306.49	6.5	174.28	16.01	7.51%	19.15%	42.12%	25.77%	5.21%	0.23%	1.22%	5.36%	12.58%	14.09%
Poland	26292.02	8.56	158.2	0.00	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Norway	25491.35	8.26	187.39	12.96	13.95%	30.78%	44.68%	8.85%	1.74%	0.00%	3.23%	11.60%	15.96%	28.77%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	25208.55	9.18	114.22	15.71	8.06%	18.73%	32.10%	27.60%	13.41%	0.10%	0.91%	4.18%	13.63%	13.15%
Bulgaria	25202.98	8.64	143.88	10.77	7.33%	26.77%	32.87%	21.75%	11.27%	0.00%	1.37%	8.35%	17.05%	17.05%
Northern Ireland	24797.86	5.3	157.17	13.57	2.29%	8.26%	25.09%	48.23%	14.97%	1.17%	0.34%	1.70%	6.22%	4.33%
Scotland	24227.06	6.67	156.94	10.77	1.45%	15.44%	52.90%	28.85%	1.36%	0.00%	0.71%	4.11%	10.62%	6.28%
Latvia	24080.77	6.46	120.08	13.33	2.38%	8.33%	19.33%	46.05%	22.48%	1.43%	0.34%	1.34%	6.65%	4.06%
Hungary	23940.88	6.01	132.94	14.02	0.65%	7.46%	32.05%	40.13%	19.72%	0.01%	0.24%	1.41%	5.81%	2.30%
Austria	23718.31	6.99	115.27	13.39	0.53%	7.95%	40.02%	40.02%	9.28%	2.20%	0.43%	1.36%	6.16%	2.33%
Belarus	23155.38	7.91	117.64	14.57	4.55%	12.77%	26.36%	35.08%	21.04%	0.21%	0.55%	2.46%	9.76%	7.57%
Belgium	21728.88	6.96	117.45	13.53	0.58%	8.38%	41.67%	38.45%	8.84%	2.08%	0.43%	1.41%	6.54%	2.42%
FYR Macedonia	21678.20	5.92	142.68	15.18	5.03%	13.02%	24.52%	47.31%	10.09%	0.04%	0.53%	2.48%	10.02%	8.03%
Lithuania	21601.26	4.97	147.47	8.62	0.29%	5.42%	28.05%	61.47%	4.78%	0.00%	0.14%	0.96%	4.32%	1.38%
Wales	21178.87	5.59	155.9	8.23	1.77%	10.46%	21.84%	35.28%	30.65%	0.00%	0.37%	2.18%	7.91%	4.32%
Albania	18891.91	4.85	131.69	11.38	0.78%	3.28%	10.25%	23.99%	60.29%	1.42%	0.13%	0.44%	2.70%	1.35%
Cyprus	18428.24	6.27	92.05	5.71	0.17%	1.21%	6.59%	40.71%	51.33%	0.00%	0.03%	0.10%	1.08%	0.30%
Montenegro	18332.36	5.76	124.32	6.75	0.73%	5.11%	13.35%	28.18%	52.64%	0.00%	0.10%	0.80%	4.21%	1.63%
Estonia	17278.68	3.89	110.74	8.76	0.08%	0.61%	3.96%	16.46%	66.62%	12.27%	0.01%	0.05%	0.55%	0.14%
Moldova	17122.16	4.65	106.3	10.80	0.04%	1.19%	8.88%	23.27%	66.53%	0.08%	0.01%	0.08%	1.09%	0.14%
Georgia	16431.74	5.47	96.53	9.96	0.29%	1.56%	5.90%	22.21%	62.32%	7.72%	0.05%	0.11%	1.40%	0.45%
Iceland	16289.66	5.39	107.42	5.95	0.17%	1.43%	7.54%	44.81%	46.05%	0.00%	0.04%	0.16%	1.23%	0.37%
Armenia	16250.92	3.4	108.13	9.24	0.09%	0.63%	2.49%	11.96%	82.27%	2.57%	0.01%	0.03%	0.58%	0.14%
Kazakhstan	15454.61	4.02	78.51	5.98	0.00%	0.07%	1.60%	7.53%	35.43%	55.38%	0.00%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%
Azerbaijan	14875.88	3.17	104.13	6.71	0.00%	0.15%	2.49%	10.82%	46.23%	40.33%	0.00%	0.01%	0.14%	0.01%
Luxembourg	12319.07	1.79	69.04	2.21	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	1.67%	98.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Faroe Islands	12110.57	3.2	64.63	3.84	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	1.17%	12.41%	86.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Liechtenstein	12010.76	2.85	71.41	2.27	0.00%	0.01%	0.49%	5.67%	93.82%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%
Malta	11560.55	3.03	67.93	3.59	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	0.78%	8.48%	90.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Andorra	9159.83	1.41	54.06	1.87	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	2.60%	97.38%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
San Marino	8027.11	0.82	38.36	0.56	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.09%	99.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

And here are the main tournament simulations. Spain did even better than I expected (and the rankings are not even including its WC final win!);

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Semi Finalist Champion Spain 56.80% 25.05% 11.40% 4.21% 18.98% 15.00% 11.82% 36.05% Netherlands 46.93% 27.19% 14.93% 6.72% 27.23% 19.97% 12.59% 14.34% Germany 43.43% 28.43% 16.97% 8.33% 28.61% 19.69% 11.98% 11.58% England 34.56% 26.97% 18.36% 10.26% 27.84% 16.82% 9.42% 7.44% Croatia 17.73% 21.20% 21.12% 17.18% 22.65% 9.99% 4.16% 2.14% Italy 20.10% 22.49% 19.97% 14.83% 23.10% 11.41% 5.08% 2.99% Russia 14.81% 19.50% 20.56% 18.52% 20.56% 8.70% 3.37% 1.69% Portugal 28.20% 25.42% 18.81% 10.77% 25.37% 14.30% 7.98% 5.97% France 17.73% 21.89% 21.13% 15.79% 21.82% 10.23% 4.83% 2.75% Serbia 11.41% 15.84% 17.80% 16.45% 16.43% 6.82% 2.73% 1.27% Sweden 12.35% 16.43% 17.44% 14.74% 16.59% 7.40% 3.18% 1.62% Greece 4.80% 8.84% 12.43% 15.44% 9.31% 2.98% 1.02% 0.34% Ukraine 19.95% 25.84% 28.03% 26.19% 23.08% 12.40% 5.76% 4.53% Czech Republic 12.54% 16.02% 16.75% 14.77% 16.32% 7.39% 3.15% 1.71% Turkey 9.79% 14.09% 17.20% 17.88% 14.75% 5.89% 2.22% 1.02% Denmark 8.55% 11.73% 13.95% 13.60% 12.25% 5.12% 2.01% 0.91% Switzerland 4.99% 8.26% 10.98% 12.59% 8.58% 3.12% 1.10% 0.46% Slovakia 2.36% 5.06% 9.01% 15.83% 5.41% 1.55% 0.36% 0.11% Israel 2.35% 4.65% 8.08% 13.25% 5.00% 1.48% 0.39% 0.12% Romania 6.38% 10.58% 14.34% 17.76% 10.95% 4.03% 1.44% 0.54% Republic of Ireland 2.61% 5.40% 8.54% 12.82% 5.54% 1.76% 0.55% 0.16% Finland 0.19% 0.52% 1.24% 2.54% 0.56% 0.12% 0.03% 0.01% Slovenia 1.00% 2.25% 3.95% 6.89% 2.38% 0.67% 0.16% 0.05% Poland 13.06% 21.18% 29.21% 36.55% 20.38% 8.71% 3.37% 1.78% Norway 3.64% 6.09% 8.44% 10.60% 6.48% 2.18% 0.74% 0.32% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.66% 1.59% 3.33% 7.57% 1.73% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02% Bulgaria 1.41% 2.73% 4.78% 8.13% 3.00% 0.85% 0.24% 0.05% Northern Ireland 0.15% 0.47% 1.08% 2.63% 0.50% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01% Scotland 0.35% 0.92% 1.75% 3.26% 0.93% 0.25% 0.07% 0.01% Latvia 0.11% 0.35% 0.90% 2.70% 0.38% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% Hungary 0.06% 0.21% 0.53% 1.50% 0.23% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% Austria 0.07% 0.22% 0.52% 1.52% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% Belarus 0.29% 0.72% 1.81% 4.75% 0.81% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01% Belgium 0.07% 0.21% 0.55% 1.59% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% FYR Macedonia 0.29% 0.85% 1.91% 4.99% 0.93% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01% Lithuania 0.04% 0.12% 0.31% 0.91% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% Wales 0.18% 0.45% 1.12% 2.57% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00% Albania 0.02% 0.09% 0.27% 0.97% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% Cyprus 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.26% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Montenegro 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.19% 0.12% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% Estonia 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Moldova 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Georgia 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.37% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Iceland 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Armenia 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Azerbaijan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Luxembourg 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Faroe Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Malta 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Andorra 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%