Hello,
As you know, the main Euro qualification will contain 5 groups of 5 teams, and 5 groups of 6 teams. Seeding will be based only on Nations League overall rankings, therefor League A teams can only be in pots 1-2, League B teams in pots 2-3, League D teams in pot 3-4, and League D teams in pots 4-6.
Top 2 of each group will qualify to UFA EURO 2020. The nations league will determine the 4 playoff mini-tournaments. The rules for determining these playoffs are quite complicated, but the basic rule is that each league's 4 best not yet qualified teams have a spot, and that nation league group winners are guaranteed a spot in a playoff with only lower ranked teams. In total 36 teams out of the 55 will either qualify directly or play in the playoffs.
The full explanation can be found here: UNL media briefing PDF version
(this link might be disabled on November 14th, so download the file while you can)
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
It took me a while to implement all the specific rules, but I finally made it, and here the results of 100K simulations:
* I did neglect the rule that Nations League final four teams will play in a 5 teams group, as it is unlikely to change anything, but Ukraine-Russia and Armenia-Azerbaijan constrains are taken into account during draws.
As you know, the main Euro qualification will contain 5 groups of 5 teams, and 5 groups of 6 teams. Seeding will be based only on Nations League overall rankings, therefor League A teams can only be in pots 1-2, League B teams in pots 2-3, League D teams in pot 3-4, and League D teams in pots 4-6.
Top 2 of each group will qualify to UFA EURO 2020. The nations league will determine the 4 playoff mini-tournaments. The rules for determining these playoffs are quite complicated, but the basic rule is that each league's 4 best not yet qualified teams have a spot, and that nation league group winners are guaranteed a spot in a playoff with only lower ranked teams. In total 36 teams out of the 55 will either qualify directly or play in the playoffs.
The full explanation can be found here: UNL media briefing PDF version
(this link might be disabled on November 14th, so download the file while you can)
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
It took me a while to implement all the specific rules, but I finally made it, and here the results of 100K simulations:
| Team | League | ELO | Points | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 | Rank 4 | Rank 5 | Rank 6 | Q-normal | Q-PO | PO-Final | PO-semis | Q_Total |
| Germany | A | 2098.00 | 23.42 | 92.5% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 99.8% |
| Spain | A | 2015.00 | 22.27 | 84.6% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 97.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 99.2% |
| Portugal | A | 1982.00 | 21.73 | 80.3% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 96.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 98.6% |
| France | A | 1959.00 | 21.33 | 75.8% | 19.6% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 95.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 98.0% |
| Italy | A | 1920.00 | 20.60 | 68.6% | 24.2% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 92.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 96.3% |
| Belgium | A | 1910.00 | 20.46 | 67.4% | 24.7% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 92.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 96.0% |
| England | A | 1909.00 | 20.36 | 66.1% | 25.6% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 91.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 95.8% |
| Netherlands | A | 1854.00 | 19.25 | 52.6% | 32.7% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 85.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 91.5% |
| Switzerland | A | 1845.00 | 19.11 | 51.9% | 32.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 84.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 90.7% |
| Poland | A | 1835.00 | 18.84 | 48.0% | 34.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 82.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 89.4% |
| Croatia | A | 1833.00 | 18.83 | 47.6% | 34.8% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 82.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 89.3% |
| Iceland | A | 1822.00 | 18.58 | 45.0% | 35.5% | 15.2% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 80.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 88.0% |
| Denmark | B | 1781.00 | 17.05 | 21.5% | 44.8% | 25.5% | 7.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 66.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 77.1% |
| Sweden | B | 1771.00 | 16.84 | 20.0% | 44.4% | 26.5% | 8.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 64.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 75.3% |
| Wales | B | 1751.00 | 16.43 | 17.6% | 42.6% | 28.7% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 60.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 17.4% | 71.4% |
| Republic of Ireland | B | 1750.00 | 16.40 | 17.2% | 42.5% | 29.1% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 59.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 17.8% | 71.0% |
| Slovakia | B | 1732.00 | 16.00 | 14.7% | 40.7% | 31.3% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 55.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 20.6% | 67.0% |
| Turkey | B | 1721.00 | 15.77 | 13.4% | 39.3% | 32.5% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 52.6% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 22.8% | 64.2% |
| Serbia | C | 1737.00 | 15.62 | 13.6% | 33.8% | 35.6% | 15.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 47.4% | 15.1% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 62.5% |
| Ukraine | B | 1709.00 | 15.48 | 12.1% | 37.8% | 33.6% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 49.9% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 24.5% | 61.7% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1706.00 | 15.44 | 11.7% | 37.8% | 33.6% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 49.6% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 24.6% | 61.2% |
| Scotland | C | 1708.00 | 14.99 | 10.5% | 30.4% | 37.2% | 19.1% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 40.9% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 17.7% | 55.3% |
| Russia | B | 1680.00 | 14.82 | 9.2% | 33.4% | 36.7% | 17.5% | 3.2% | 0.1% | 42.6% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 30.3% | 54.0% |
| Austria | B | 1678.00 | 14.82 | 9.1% | 33.4% | 36.2% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 0.1% | 42.5% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 30.5% | 53.9% |
| Czech Republic | B | 1660.00 | 14.42 | 7.3% | 30.8% | 37.4% | 20.3% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 38.1% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 34.2% | 49.1% |
| Northern Ireland | B | 1654.00 | 14.27 | 7.0% | 29.7% | 37.6% | 20.9% | 4.6% | 0.1% | 36.7% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 35.2% | 47.5% |
| Romania | C | 1669.00 | 14.12 | 7.0% | 25.3% | 38.0% | 25.0% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 32.3% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 20.7% | 45.1% |
| Greece | C | 1647.00 | 13.65 | 5.5% | 22.1% | 37.8% | 28.8% | 5.6% | 0.2% | 27.6% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 22.1% | 38.6% |
| Slovenia | C | 1618.00 | 12.96 | 4.1% | 18.1% | 36.4% | 33.3% | 7.8% | 0.3% | 22.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 23.7% | 32.2% |
| Belarus | D | 1489.00 | 9.22 | 0.5% | 4.4% | 14.8% | 36.6% | 40.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 21.4% | 16.3% | 23.0% | 26.3% |
| Hungary | C | 1593.00 | 12.40 | 2.9% | 15.1% | 34.0% | 37.6% | 10.0% | 0.4% | 18.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 24.5% | 26.3% |
| Macedonia | D | 1484.00 | 9.14 | 0.4% | 4.1% | 14.4% | 36.1% | 41.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 20.8% | 15.9% | 23.5% | 25.4% |
| Bulgaria | C | 1590.00 | 12.29 | 2.7% | 14.5% | 33.2% | 38.6% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 22.1% | 24.5% |
| Montenegro | C | 1590.00 | 12.29 | 2.7% | 14.5% | 33.1% | 38.8% | 10.4% | 0.5% | 17.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 21.5% | 24.3% |
| Norway | C | 1578.00 | 12.02 | 2.2% | 13.2% | 32.6% | 39.8% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 24.1% | 22.8% |
| Albania | C | 1573.00 | 11.94 | 2.3% | 12.7% | 31.9% | 40.5% | 12.1% | 0.6% | 14.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 24.4% | 22.1% |
| Georgia | D | 1457.00 | 8.55 | 0.3% | 2.8% | 11.5% | 33.7% | 47.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 24.0% | 20.3% |
| Finland | C | 1567.00 | 11.78 | 2.0% | 11.8% | 31.0% | 41.8% | 12.8% | 0.6% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 21.7% | 19.8% |
| Armenia | D | 1439.00 | 8.17 | 0.2% | 2.2% | 9.7% | 30.5% | 52.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| Israel | C | 1514.00 | 10.61 | 1.0% | 7.0% | 24.0% | 47.2% | 19.6% | 1.3% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
| Azerbaijan | D | 1382.00 | 7.10 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 24.9% | 60.6% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 26.6% | 11.0% |
| Estonia | C | 1476.00 | 9.78 | 0.4% | 4.4% | 18.7% | 49.1% | 25.4% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 12.7% | 6.6% |
| Latvia | D | 1355.00 | 6.62 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 4.1% | 20.8% | 62.9% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| Kosovo | D | 1351.00 | 6.65 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 18.9% | 60.3% | 16.6% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 13.6% | 4.1% |
| Kazakhstan | D | 1320.00 | 6.09 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 16.3% | 63.7% | 17.0% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 12.0% | 3.3% |
| Moldova | D | 1310.00 | 5.91 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 15.1% | 63.8% | 18.4% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 11.7% | 3.0% |
| Luxembourg | D | 1285.00 | 5.52 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 13.1% | 64.8% | 20.2% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 12.2% | 2.5% |
| Cyprus | C | 1399.00 | 8.25 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 10.2% | 46.6% | 37.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 7.5% | 2.3% |
| Lithuania | C | 1385.00 | 8.01 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 8.9% | 45.7% | 39.4% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 6.6% | 1.9% |
| Faroe Islands | D | 1258.00 | 5.13 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 10.5% | 63.8% | 24.3% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 10.3% | 1.7% |
| Malta | D | 1204.00 | 4.42 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 6.2% | 55.6% | 37.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 5.8% | 0.6% |
| Liechtenstein | D | 1128.00 | 3.52 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 42.5% | 54.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Gibraltar | D | 1049.00 | 2.77 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 20.7% | 78.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andorra | D | 993.00 | 2.30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 14.1% | 85.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| San Marino | D | 835.00 | 1.39 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 96.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
We can see very clearly that Nation League D teams have a huge advantage in qualifying to Euro 2020.
Interesting to note that in 99.85% of the simulations, all League A teams qualifies at least for the playoffs. It also happened for League B teams in 87% of the simulations.
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