The very much awaited FIFA World Cup 2018 draw is scheduled for December 1st.
The pots for the draw were announced, and are based on FIFA World Rankings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding
I made 1 million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).
The 3 most likely group stage matches are Mexico-Serbia with 33.6% (which could be part of the group of death), Iran-Morocco with 28.9% of taking place, and Iran-Nigeria with 28.9% as well.
What I found the most interesting, is that even the worst team according to ELO (Saudi Arabia) still have 15.7% probability of going to the last 16. The group stage is going to be very fierce.
Another interesting fact is Brazil having a higher probability than Germany of going out already in the GS , even though it is the best team according to ELO. It could be explained by the fact that there can only be 2 European teams per group, therefor Brazil have a higher probability to get tough teams from pots 3 and 4.
Without further ado, here are the average points in the GS, and probabilities of each team to get a GS rank and final positions:
Update: draw procedure claim that there should be at least one European team in each group. Probabilities updated accordingly.
The pots for the draw were announced, and are based on FIFA World Rankings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding
I made 1 million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).
The 3 most likely group stage matches are Mexico-Serbia with 33.6% (which could be part of the group of death), Iran-Morocco with 28.9% of taking place, and Iran-Nigeria with 28.9% as well.
What I found the most interesting, is that even the worst team according to ELO (Saudi Arabia) still have 15.7% probability of going to the last 16. The group stage is going to be very fierce.
Another interesting fact is Brazil having a higher probability than Germany of going out already in the GS , even though it is the best team according to ELO. It could be explained by the fact that there can only be 2 European teams per group, therefor Brazil have a higher probability to get tough teams from pots 3 and 4.
Without further ado, here are the average points in the GS, and probabilities of each team to get a GS rank and final positions:
| Team | Pot | ELO | Avg_Points | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | R16 | Quarters | Semis | final | winner | 3rd |
| Russia | 1 | 1781 | 4.20 | 23.8% | 28.1% | 26.4% | 21.8% | 51.9% | 19.1% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.6% |
| Germany | 1 | 2089 | 6.70 | 67.3% | 22.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 90.0% | 70.9% | 52.0% | 36.0% | 22.5% | 11.1% |
| Brazil | 1 | 2096 | 6.67 | 66.7% | 22.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 89.6% | 71.4% | 53.1% | 37.4% | 23.8% | 11.0% |
| Portugal | 1 | 1976 | 5.82 | 50.7% | 28.6% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 79.2% | 50.9% | 29.4% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% |
| Argentina | 1 | 1966 | 5.64 | 47.4% | 29.2% | 16.0% | 7.4% | 76.6% | 48.2% | 27.2% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% |
| Belgium | 1 | 1909 | 5.26 | 40.5% | 30.2% | 19.0% | 10.3% | 70.7% | 38.7% | 18.8% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% |
| Poland | 1 | 1821 | 4.53 | 28.5% | 29.5% | 24.5% | 17.5% | 58.0% | 24.5% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| France | 1 | 1969 | 5.75 | 49.5% | 28.8% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 78.4% | 49.6% | 28.1% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% |
| Spain | 2 | 2013 | 5.91 | 48.5% | 33.0% | 13.7% | 4.9% | 81.5% | 56.7% | 36.3% | 21.4% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Peru | 2 | 1866 | 4.71 | 30.2% | 31.3% | 23.7% | 14.8% | 61.5% | 29.9% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| Switzerland | 2 | 1845 | 4.54 | 25.8% | 33.3% | 25.1% | 15.8% | 59.1% | 27.1% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| England | 2 | 1914 | 5.12 | 34.7% | 34.5% | 20.5% | 10.2% | 69.2% | 38.6% | 19.4% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% |
| Colombia | 2 | 1911 | 5.09 | 36.4% | 31.8% | 20.7% | 11.1% | 68.2% | 37.5% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% |
| Mexico | 2 | 1833 | 4.30 | 23.1% | 31.3% | 26.6% | 19.0% | 54.4% | 24.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% |
| Uruguay | 2 | 1849 | 4.58 | 28.2% | 31.0% | 24.6% | 16.2% | 59.2% | 27.4% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 3.1% |
| Croatia | 2 | 1838 | 4.48 | 25.0% | 33.0% | 25.5% | 16.5% | 58.1% | 26.1% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% |
| Denmark | 3 | 1820 | 3.95 | 19.0% | 27.4% | 30.6% | 23.0% | 46.4% | 19.8% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Iceland | 3 | 1791 | 3.72 | 16.3% | 25.8% | 31.6% | 26.4% | 42.1% | 16.3% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Costa Rica | 3 | 1728 | 3.19 | 11.1% | 21.2% | 32.3% | 35.3% | 32.3% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Sweden | 3 | 1805 | 3.83 | 17.5% | 26.6% | 31.2% | 24.7% | 44.1% | 17.9% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 1.7% |
| Tunisia | 3 | 1619 | 2.41 | 5.1% | 14.0% | 30.3% | 50.6% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Egypt | 3 | 1654 | 2.66 | 6.7% | 16.4% | 31.5% | 45.4% | 23.2% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Senegal | 3 | 1748 | 3.37 | 12.7% | 22.9% | 32.1% | 32.3% | 35.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Iran | 3 | 1791 | 3.70 | 16.4% | 25.4% | 31.2% | 27.0% | 41.9% | 16.2% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Serbia | 4 | 1752 | 3.32 | 12.3% | 22.5% | 31.5% | 33.6% | 34.9% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Nigeria | 4 | 1691 | 2.68 | 7.9% | 16.3% | 28.2% | 47.6% | 24.2% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Australia | 4 | 1718 | 3.04 | 10.1% | 19.9% | 31.1% | 38.9% | 29.9% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Japan | 4 | 1735 | 3.17 | 11.3% | 20.9% | 31.2% | 36.6% | 32.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| Morocco | 4 | 1686 | 2.64 | 7.6% | 16.0% | 28.1% | 48.3% | 23.6% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Panama | 4 | 1656 | 2.54 | 6.3% | 15.1% | 29.5% | 49.1% | 21.4% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| South Korea | 4 | 1702 | 2.92 | 9.1% | 18.8% | 30.9% | 41.2% | 27.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4 | 1596 | 2.16 | 4.0% | 11.7% | 27.5% | 56.8% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Update: draw procedure claim that there should be at least one European team in each group. Probabilities updated accordingly.
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