Hello,
In today' post I'll present the simulations for all leagues in UEFA Nations League. As always, the simulations are based on
In today' post I'll present the simulations for all leagues in UEFA Nations League. As always, the simulations are based on
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
Please notice that group size varies between 3 and 4 teams.
So without further ado, here are the results of 100K simulations:
In League B all teams seem very close to each other with having between 23.8% to 43% of 1st position in their group, hence promotion to League A. They also have between 24% to 43.7% of relegating to group C. What it means is either we don't have enough data on these teams to differentiate between them, or their level is really that close, and having only 4 matches per teams makes the final position comes down to luck (or a combination of the two).
The overall rankings will determine the spots for Euro 2020 PO (among other criteria, I'll talk about it on the next post of Euro 2020 Qualifying simulations.
Please notice that group size varies between 3 and 4 teams.
So without further ado, here are the results of 100K simulations:
| Team | League | ELO | Avg_Points | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Relegation | Overall_Avg |
| Germany | A | 2098.00 | 6.494 | 70.5% | 22.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 3.50 | |
| Spain | A | 2015.00 | 5.4954 | 56.1% | 29.5% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 4.61 | |
| Portugal | A | 1982.00 | 5.0926 | 50.2% | 31.6% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 5.08 | |
| France | A | 1959.00 | 4.37768 | 36.5% | 38.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 5.96 | |
| Belgium | A | 1910.00 | 4.32908 | 38.5% | 34.3% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 6.03 | |
| Italy | A | 1920.00 | 3.9676 | 30.6% | 39.0% | 30.4% | 30.4% | 6.49 | |
| England | A | 1909.00 | 3.8678 | 29.0% | 39.1% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 6.64 | |
| Switzerland | A | 1845.00 | 3.24604 | 20.8% | 37.7% | 41.6% | 41.6% | 7.48 | |
| Netherlands | A | 1854.00 | 2.98684 | 18.9% | 33.0% | 48.1% | 48.1% | 7.82 | |
| Poland | A | 1835.00 | 2.81508 | 16.9% | 32.0% | 51.1% | 51.1% | 8.06 | |
| Croatia | A | 1833.00 | 2.78628 | 16.5% | 32.0% | 51.5% | 51.5% | 8.09 | |
| Iceland | A | 1822.00 | 2.68508 | 15.4% | 31.1% | 53.5% | 53.5% | 8.24 | |
| Sweden | B | 1771.00 | 4.62488 | 43.0% | 33.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 17.62 | |
| Denmark | B | 1781.00 | 4.5556 | 42.5% | 32.6% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 17.70 | |
| Republic of Ireland | B | 1750.00 | 4.4206 | 40.0% | 33.5% | 26.5% | 26.5% | 17.89 | |
| Wales | B | 1751.00 | 4.30544 | 38.3% | 33.6% | 28.1% | 28.1% | 18.03 | |
| Slovakia | B | 1732.00 | 4.10984 | 35.2% | 33.7% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 18.30 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1706.00 | 3.98356 | 33.5% | 33.7% | 32.8% | 32.8% | 18.47 | |
| Turkey | B | 1721.00 | 3.9436 | 32.9% | 34.0% | 33.1% | 33.1% | 18.52 | |
| Ukraine | B | 1709.00 | 3.91224 | 32.3% | 34.0% | 33.7% | 33.7% | 18.56 | |
| Austria | B | 1678.00 | 3.56984 | 27.3% | 33.6% | 39.1% | 39.1% | 19.05 | |
| Russia | B | 1680.00 | 3.54036 | 26.8% | 33.3% | 39.8% | 39.8% | 19.09 | |
| Czech Republic | B | 1660.00 | 3.34924 | 24.3% | 32.6% | 43.1% | 43.1% | 19.37 | |
| Northern Ireland | B | 1654.00 | 3.31292 | 23.8% | 32.5% | 43.7% | 43.7% | 19.41 | |
| Serbia | C | 1737.00 | 7.169745 | 54.9% | 29.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 28.81 |
| Scotland | C | 1708.00 | 6.7837 | 50.5% | 30.3% | 15.7% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 29.20 |
| Romania | C | 1669.00 | 6.20818 | 43.2% | 31.7% | 19.8% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 29.85 |
| Greece | C | 1647.00 | 5.79249 | 38.0% | 32.2% | 23.0% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 30.34 |
| Slovenia | C | 1618.00 | 5.44819 | 34.0% | 32.2% | 25.2% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 30.74 |
| Hungary | C | 1593.00 | 5.10796 | 30.1% | 31.6% | 27.8% | 10.4% | 16.9% | 31.16 |
| Norway | C | 1578.00 | 4.805295 | 26.4% | 31.3% | 30.3% | 12.0% | 19.2% | 31.55 |
| Albania | C | 1573.00 | 4.74408 | 25.8% | 31.3% | 30.4% | 12.5% | 19.9% | 31.63 |
| Montenegro | C | 1590.00 | 4.58634 | 24.1% | 30.5% | 33.5% | 12.0% | 20.7% | 31.80 |
| Bulgaria | C | 1590.00 | 4.573855 | 23.8% | 30.9% | 33.5% | 11.9% | 20.6% | 31.81 |
| Finland | C | 1567.00 | 4.264645 | 20.7% | 29.4% | 35.7% | 14.2% | 24.0% | 32.22 |
| Israel | C | 1514.00 | 3.557895 | 14.3% | 25.5% | 40.0% | 20.2% | 32.7% | 33.16 |
| Estonia | C | 1476.00 | 2.88114 | 8.0% | 16.0% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 55.1% | 34.96 |
| Cyprus | C | 1399.00 | 1.92414 | 3.4% | 9.5% | 22.6% | 64.5% | 70.9% | 36.29 |
| Lithuania | C | 1385.00 | 1.76334 | 2.9% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 66.9% | 73.2% | 36.49 |
| Belarus | D | 1489.00 | 10.02402 | 63.2% | 25.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 43.14 | |
| Macedonia | D | 1484.00 | 9.93144 | 62.1% | 26.4% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 43.22 | |
| Georgia | D | 1457.00 | 9.52662 | 57.3% | 28.6% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 43.61 | |
| Azerbaijan | D | 1382.00 | 8.6301 | 48.6% | 30.1% | 16.7% | 4.5% | 44.49 | |
| Armenia | D | 1439.00 | 8.55948 | 38.0% | 40.6% | 17.8% | 3.6% | 44.69 | |
| Latvia | D | 1355.00 | 7.46196 | 27.9% | 39.3% | 25.7% | 7.1% | 45.86 | |
| Luxembourg | D | 1285.00 | 6.41682 | 17.9% | 37.0% | 33.1% | 12.1% | 47.03 | |
| Kazakhstan | D | 1320.00 | 6.40548 | 19.0% | 31.8% | 37.2% | 12.0% | 47.08 | |
| Moldova | D | 1310.00 | 6.26196 | 17.9% | 31.1% | 38.3% | 12.7% | 47.24 | |
| Kosovo | D | 1351.00 | 5.88408 | 21.8% | 29.4% | 29.0% | 19.8% | 47.50 | |
| Faroe Islands | D | 1258.00 | 5.98152 | 14.5% | 34.9% | 36.0% | 14.6% | 47.51 | |
| Malta | D | 1204.00 | 4.67334 | 7.3% | 21.7% | 46.9% | 24.1% | 49.04 | |
| Liechtenstein | D | 1128.00 | 3.57048 | 3.2% | 14.4% | 47.9% | 34.5% | 50.21 | |
| Gibraltar | D | 1049.00 | 1.6299 | 0.9% | 5.4% | 20.6% | 73.0% | 52.29 | |
| Andorra | D | 993.00 | 1.10334 | 0.4% | 2.9% | 15.3% | 81.4% | 52.92 | |
| San Marino | D | 835.00 | 0.2949 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 94.9% | 54.17 |
In League B all teams seem very close to each other with having between 23.8% to 43% of 1st position in their group, hence promotion to League A. They also have between 24% to 43.7% of relegating to group C. What it means is either we don't have enough data on these teams to differentiate between them, or their level is really that close, and having only 4 matches per teams makes the final position comes down to luck (or a combination of the two).
The overall rankings will determine the spots for Euro 2020 PO (among other criteria, I'll talk about it on the next post of Euro 2020 Qualifying simulations.
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