The draw result for FIFA World Cup 2018 is (taken from FIFA.com):
Let's start by looking at the Elo Ratings of the teams by group:
| Group | Elo_Avg | Elo_Std |
| A | 1720.00 | 100.12 |
| B | 1866.50 | 133.92 |
| C | 1843.25 | 90.22 |
| D | 1821.50 | 98.89 |
| E | 1855.25 | 145.70 |
| F | 1857.25 | 142.42 |
| G | 1774.50 | 137.63 |
| H | 1803.75 | 70.06 |
The most balanced group is group H, and any final ranking seem reasonable.
Group A is the easiest group by far, and in fact it has one of the worst 3 teams from each one of the seeding pots according to Elo.
The hardest groups are groups B, E and F. On first look it would seem maybe that Portugal and Spain have a relatively easy draw, because of the bottom 2 teams in their group. Group E has 3 teams that reached the last 16 in FIFA World Cup 2014, and group F has last 16 regulars Germany and Mexico, in addition to giant slayer Sweden, that eliminated both Netherlands and Italy.
I made 1 million simulations of the tournament before and after the draw using Elo Ratings (adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts) in order to test the draw more scientifically:
The number represent the cumulative percentage change of reaching a certain position/round for all teams in the group.
As expected, Group A teams were expected about 1.5 qualifications to R16 before he draw, and after the draw obviously 2 of them would qualify. When looking at the quarter finals, group H teams are actually the winners, avoiding the top 6 Elo teams until the quarter finals. Group B team are actually the winners when it comes to raising the probability of winning the tournament.
The losers of the draw when looking at the chance of going out in the group stage are Group B teams. It is easy to sometimes underestimate the bottom teams in the group, but their chance of qualifying is not negligible. Having Spain in that group reduced Portugal chance of qualifying significantly. When looking at the quarter finals probability, group E and F are the biggest losers, since they will meet each other in the R16, and both groups are very strong.
The results of the draw are very significant for the participating teams, but of course the games still need to be played, and the ability and luck their would b even more significant.
Here are the results by team (order by difference in R16 from lowest to highest):
Here are the Elo Weighted results (weighted 10^((elo ratings-1500)/400), because of Elo structure) :
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).
For the full simulation results see:
After the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html
Before the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/11/fifa-world-cup-2018-pre-draw-simulation.html
The number represent the cumulative percentage change of reaching a certain position/round for all teams in the group.
| Group | Points | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | R16 | Quarters | Semis | final | winner | 3rd |
| A | 2.93 | 37.25% | 12.82% | -9.92% | -40.14% | 50.07% | 2.47% | 2.79% | 0.31% | 0.14% | 0.99% |
| B | -1.46 | -23.43% | -2.91% | 12.65% | 13.69% | -26.34% | 13.23% | 10.91% | 2.02% | 1.06% | 4.65% |
| C | -0.97 | -8.99% | -7.49% | -0.22% | 16.69% | -16.47% | -4.99% | -0.96% | -2.05% | -0.66% | 0.57% |
| D | 0.01 | 3.58% | -4.55% | -1.34% | 2.31% | -0.97% | -0.28% | 0.50% | -1.32% | -0.52% | 0.81% |
| E | -1.05 | -15.86% | -0.09% | 2.97% | 12.98% | -15.95% | -20.38% | -3.75% | 0.33% | 0.24% | -2.04% |
| F | -1.07 | -17.04% | 1.07% | 3.61% | 12.36% | -15.98% | -20.31% | -3.53% | -0.05% | -0.79% | -1.85% |
| G | 1.33 | 13.38% | 6.27% | 0.68% | -20.32% | 19.64% | 21.05% | -0.95% | 1.36% | 0.69% | -1.19% |
| H | 0.30 | 11.12% | -5.11% | -8.43% | 2.42% | 6.00% | 9.20% | -5.01% | -0.60% | -0.16% | -1.94% |
As expected, Group A teams were expected about 1.5 qualifications to R16 before he draw, and after the draw obviously 2 of them would qualify. When looking at the quarter finals, group H teams are actually the winners, avoiding the top 6 Elo teams until the quarter finals. Group B team are actually the winners when it comes to raising the probability of winning the tournament.
The losers of the draw when looking at the chance of going out in the group stage are Group B teams. It is easy to sometimes underestimate the bottom teams in the group, but their chance of qualifying is not negligible. Having Spain in that group reduced Portugal chance of qualifying significantly. When looking at the quarter finals probability, group E and F are the biggest losers, since they will meet each other in the R16, and both groups are very strong.
The results of the draw are very significant for the participating teams, but of course the games still need to be played, and the ability and luck their would b even more significant.
Here are the results by team (order by difference in R16 from lowest to highest):
| Team | Group | Pot | ELO | Points | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | R16 | Quarters | Semis | final | winner | 3rd |
| Iran | B | 3 | 1791 | -0.38 | -5.63% | -3.89% | 6.70% | 2.82% | -9.52% | 0.99% | 0.86% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.29% |
| Morocco | B | 4 | 1686 | -0.48 | -3.37% | -4.61% | -0.35% | 8.33% | -7.98% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.03% |
| South Korea | F | 4 | 1702 | -0.49 | -4.56% | -2.27% | -1.95% | 8.78% | -6.83% | -3.62% | -0.65% | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.16% |
| Switzerland | E | 2 | 1845 | -0.43 | -10.22% | 3.98% | 3.21% | 3.03% | -6.24% | -8.42% | -2.25% | -0.45% | -0.17% | -0.80% |
| Peru | C | 2 | 1866 | -0.31 | -4.72% | -1.29% | 2.53% | 3.49% | -6.01% | -2.12% | -0.54% | -0.60% | -0.18% | -0.01% |
| Costa Rica | E | 3 | 1728 | -0.39 | -5.09% | -0.47% | -0.15% | 5.71% | -5.56% | -4.14% | -0.73% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.21% |
| Serbia | E | 4 | 1752 | -0.38 | -5.30% | -0.20% | 1.08% | 4.42% | -5.50% | -4.66% | -0.97% | -0.19% | -0.06% | -0.26% |
| Portugal | B | 1 | 1976 | -0.39 | -11.39% | 5.97% | 4.03% | 1.40% | -5.42% | 5.71% | 4.98% | 1.38% | 0.58% | 1.78% |
| Mexico | F | 2 | 1833 | -0.32 | -8.27% | 3.06% | 3.59% | 1.63% | -5.22% | -7.30% | -1.81% | -0.28% | -0.09% | -0.67% |
| Australia | C | 4 | 1718 | -0.35 | -1.77% | -3.41% | -3.73% | 8.91% | -5.19% | -1.28% | -0.30% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.06% |
| Sweden | F | 3 | 1805 | -0.28 | -6.33% | 2.53% | 2.08% | 1.72% | -3.80% | -5.60% | -1.25% | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.42% |
| Croatia | D | 2 | 1838 | -0.14 | -1.29% | -2.15% | 1.35% | 2.08% | -3.44% | -1.38% | -0.28% | -0.46% | -0.15% | 0.06% |
| Spain | B | 2 | 2013 | -0.22 | -3.04% | -0.38% | 2.27% | 1.15% | -3.42% | 6.48% | 4.95% | 0.59% | 0.45% | 2.56% |
| France | C | 1 | 1969 | -0.17 | -1.45% | -1.58% | 1.36% | 1.67% | -3.03% | -1.18% | -0.03% | -1.02% | -0.36% | 0.57% |
| Denmark | C | 3 | 1820 | -0.14 | -1.04% | -1.20% | -0.39% | 2.62% | -2.24% | -0.40% | -0.09% | -0.30% | -0.08% | 0.07% |
| Poland | H | 1 | 1821 | -0.09 | -1.20% | -0.62% | 0.29% | 1.52% | -1.82% | 1.45% | -1.70% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.64% |
| Nigeria | D | 4 | 1691 | -0.05 | -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.60% | 0.96% | -0.35% | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.01% |
| Germany | F | 1 | 2089 | 0.02 | 2.12% | -2.25% | -0.11% | 0.24% | -0.13% | -3.79% | 0.17% | 0.49% | -0.63% | -0.60% |
| Tunisia | G | 3 | 1619 | 0.12 | 0.40% | 0.34% | 2.85% | -3.58% | 0.73% | 1.06% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.01% |
| Iceland | D | 3 | 1791 | 0.03 | 0.46% | 0.45% | -0.70% | -0.22% | 0.91% | 0.35% | 0.23% | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.14% |
| Brazil | E | 1 | 2096 | 0.16 | 4.74% | -3.40% | -1.16% | -0.18% | 1.34% | -3.16% | 0.20% | 1.07% | 0.50% | -0.77% |
| Argentina | D | 1 | 1966 | 0.17 | 4.65% | -2.74% | -1.39% | -0.51% | 1.91% | 0.96% | 0.54% | -0.70% | -0.34% | 0.60% |
| Japan | H | 4 | 1735 | 0.06 | 2.01% | -0.03% | -2.69% | 0.71% | 1.98% | 1.59% | -0.50% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.15% |
| Panama | G | 4 | 1656 | 0.25 | 0.81% | 1.72% | 6.19% | -8.71% | 2.52% | 1.75% | -0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.02% |
| Senegal | H | 3 | 1748 | 0.11 | 2.71% | 0.06% | -3.28% | 0.51% | 2.77% | 2.04% | -0.58% | -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.18% |
| Colombia | H | 2 | 1911 | 0.21 | 7.59% | -4.52% | -2.75% | -0.31% | 3.07% | 4.11% | -2.23% | -0.37% | -0.12% | -0.96% |
| Belgium | G | 1 | 1909 | 0.44 | 3.74% | 4.05% | -3.71% | -4.08% | 7.79% | 8.98% | -0.32% | 0.86% | 0.39% | -0.67% |
| England | G | 2 | 1914 | 0.52 | 8.44% | 0.16% | -4.64% | -3.95% | 8.60% | 9.26% | -0.54% | 0.48% | 0.29% | -0.50% |
| Saudi Arabia | A | 4 | 1596 | 0.55 | 4.11% | 4.86% | 1.39% | -10.37% | 8.98% | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% |
| Egypt | A | 3 | 1654 | 0.73 | 6.34% | 6.09% | 0.86% | -13.29% | 12.42% | 0.49% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.04% |
| Russia | A | 1 | 1781 | 0.71 | 9.11% | 3.81% | -4.27% | -8.65% | 12.92% | 0.03% | 0.80% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.28% |
| Uruguay | A | 2 | 1849 | 0.94 | 17.69% | -1.94% | -7.91% | -7.83% | 15.75% | 1.82% | 1.78% | 0.22% | 0.11% | 0.67% |
Here are the Elo Weighted results (weighted 10^((elo ratings-1500)/400), because of Elo structure) :
| Group | Points | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | R16 | Quarters | Semis | final | winner | 3rd |
| A | 13.33 | 2.00 | 0.28 | -0.76 | -1.52 | 2.28 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| B | -13.52 | -2.75 | 0.51 | 1.41 | 0.83 | -2.24 | 2.18 | 1.77 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.78 |
| C | -7.16 | -0.73 | -0.54 | 0.26 | 1.01 | -1.27 | -0.42 | -0.06 | -0.22 | -0.08 | 0.09 |
| D | 1.45 | 0.61 | -0.53 | -0.16 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.14 | -0.06 | 0.10 |
| E | -1.27 | 0.31 | -0.79 | -0.09 | 0.57 | -0.48 | -1.94 | -0.17 | 0.29 | 0.14 | -0.32 |
| F | -4.70 | -0.45 | -0.39 | 0.27 | 0.56 | -0.83 | -2.06 | -0.16 | 0.11 | -0.20 | -0.25 |
| G | 11.09 | 1.34 | 0.49 | -0.69 | -1.14 | 1.83 | 2.01 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.07 | -0.12 |
| H | 2.43 | 0.92 | -0.52 | -0.52 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.68 | -0.39 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).
For the full simulation results see:
After the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html
Before the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/11/fifa-world-cup-2018-pre-draw-simulation.html
it is great article. i like and appreciated it. Soccer World Cup 2018 Winner Prediction FIFA Betting Tips for Today’s Match thanks
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