FIFA World Cup 2018 - Draw Analysis

The draw result for FIFA World Cup 2018 is (taken from FIFA.com):

Let's start by looking at the Elo Ratings of the teams by group:

Group	Elo_Avg	Elo_Std
A	1720.00	100.12
B	1866.50	133.92
C	1843.25	90.22
D	1821.50	98.89
E	1855.25	145.70
F	1857.25	142.42
G	1774.50	137.63
H	1803.75	70.06

The most balanced group is group H, and any final ranking seem reasonable.
Group A is the easiest group by far, and in fact it has one of the worst 3 teams from each one of the seeding pots according to Elo.

The hardest groups are groups B, E and F. On first look it would seem maybe that Portugal and Spain have a relatively easy draw, because of the bottom 2 teams in their group. Group E has 3 teams that reached the last 16 in FIFA World Cup 2014, and group F has last 16 regulars Germany and Mexico, in addition to giant slayer Sweden, that eliminated both Netherlands and Italy.

I made 1 million simulations of the tournament before and after the draw using Elo Ratings (adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts) in order to test the draw more scientifically:
The number represent the cumulative percentage change of reaching a certain position/round for all teams in the group.

Group	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
A	2.93	37.25%	12.82%	-9.92%	-40.14%	50.07%	2.47%	2.79%	0.31%	0.14%	0.99%
B	-1.46	-23.43%	-2.91%	12.65%	13.69%	-26.34%	13.23%	10.91%	2.02%	1.06%	4.65%
C	-0.97	-8.99%	-7.49%	-0.22%	16.69%	-16.47%	-4.99%	-0.96%	-2.05%	-0.66%	0.57%
D	0.01	3.58%	-4.55%	-1.34%	2.31%	-0.97%	-0.28%	0.50%	-1.32%	-0.52%	0.81%
E	-1.05	-15.86%	-0.09%	2.97%	12.98%	-15.95%	-20.38%	-3.75%	0.33%	0.24%	-2.04%
F	-1.07	-17.04%	1.07%	3.61%	12.36%	-15.98%	-20.31%	-3.53%	-0.05%	-0.79%	-1.85%
G	1.33	13.38%	6.27%	0.68%	-20.32%	19.64%	21.05%	-0.95%	1.36%	0.69%	-1.19%
H	0.30	11.12%	-5.11%	-8.43%	2.42%	6.00%	9.20%	-5.01%	-0.60%	-0.16%	-1.94%

As expected, Group A teams were expected about 1.5 qualifications to R16 before he draw, and after the draw obviously 2 of them would qualify. When looking at the quarter finals, group H teams are actually the winners, avoiding the top 6 Elo teams until the quarter finals. Group B team are actually the winners when it comes to raising the probability of winning the tournament.
The losers of the draw when looking at the chance of going out in the group stage are Group B teams. It is easy to sometimes underestimate the bottom teams in the group, but their chance of qualifying is not negligible. Having Spain in that group reduced Portugal chance of qualifying significantly. When looking at the quarter finals probability, group E and F are the biggest losers, since they will meet each other in the R16, and both groups are very strong.
The results of the draw are very significant for the participating teams, but of course the games still need to be played, and the ability and luck their would b even more significant.

Here are the results by team (order by difference in R16 from lowest to highest):

Team	Group	Pot	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Iran	B	3	1791	-0.38	-5.63%	-3.89%	6.70%	2.82%	-9.52%	0.99%	0.86%	0.05%	0.02%	0.29%
Morocco	B	4	1686	-0.48	-3.37%	-4.61%	-0.35%	8.33%	-7.98%	0.06%	0.13%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%
South Korea	F	4	1702	-0.49	-4.56%	-2.27%	-1.95%	8.78%	-6.83%	-3.62%	-0.65%	-0.09%	-0.02%	-0.16%
Switzerland	E	2	1845	-0.43	-10.22%	3.98%	3.21%	3.03%	-6.24%	-8.42%	-2.25%	-0.45%	-0.17%	-0.80%
Peru	C	2	1866	-0.31	-4.72%	-1.29%	2.53%	3.49%	-6.01%	-2.12%	-0.54%	-0.60%	-0.18%	-0.01%
Costa Rica	E	3	1728	-0.39	-5.09%	-0.47%	-0.15%	5.71%	-5.56%	-4.14%	-0.73%	-0.11%	-0.03%	-0.21%
Serbia	E	4	1752	-0.38	-5.30%	-0.20%	1.08%	4.42%	-5.50%	-4.66%	-0.97%	-0.19%	-0.06%	-0.26%
Portugal	B	1	1976	-0.39	-11.39%	5.97%	4.03%	1.40%	-5.42%	5.71%	4.98%	1.38%	0.58%	1.78%
Mexico	F	2	1833	-0.32	-8.27%	3.06%	3.59%	1.63%	-5.22%	-7.30%	-1.81%	-0.28%	-0.09%	-0.67%
Australia	C	4	1718	-0.35	-1.77%	-3.41%	-3.73%	8.91%	-5.19%	-1.28%	-0.30%	-0.13%	-0.03%	-0.06%
Sweden	F	3	1805	-0.28	-6.33%	2.53%	2.08%	1.72%	-3.80%	-5.60%	-1.25%	-0.17%	-0.04%	-0.42%
Croatia	D	2	1838	-0.14	-1.29%	-2.15%	1.35%	2.08%	-3.44%	-1.38%	-0.28%	-0.46%	-0.15%	0.06%
Spain	B	2	2013	-0.22	-3.04%	-0.38%	2.27%	1.15%	-3.42%	6.48%	4.95%	0.59%	0.45%	2.56%
France	C	1	1969	-0.17	-1.45%	-1.58%	1.36%	1.67%	-3.03%	-1.18%	-0.03%	-1.02%	-0.36%	0.57%
Denmark	C	3	1820	-0.14	-1.04%	-1.20%	-0.39%	2.62%	-2.24%	-0.40%	-0.09%	-0.30%	-0.08%	0.07%
Poland	H	1	1821	-0.09	-1.20%	-0.62%	0.29%	1.52%	-1.82%	1.45%	-1.70%	-0.16%	-0.04%	-0.64%
Nigeria	D	4	1691	-0.05	-0.24%	-0.11%	-0.60%	0.96%	-0.35%	-0.20%	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.01%
Germany	F	1	2089	0.02	2.12%	-2.25%	-0.11%	0.24%	-0.13%	-3.79%	0.17%	0.49%	-0.63%	-0.60%
Tunisia	G	3	1619	0.12	0.40%	0.34%	2.85%	-3.58%	0.73%	1.06%	-0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.01%
Iceland	D	3	1791	0.03	0.46%	0.45%	-0.70%	-0.22%	0.91%	0.35%	0.23%	-0.13%	-0.04%	0.14%
Brazil	E	1	2096	0.16	4.74%	-3.40%	-1.16%	-0.18%	1.34%	-3.16%	0.20%	1.07%	0.50%	-0.77%
Argentina	D	1	1966	0.17	4.65%	-2.74%	-1.39%	-0.51%	1.91%	0.96%	0.54%	-0.70%	-0.34%	0.60%
Japan	H	4	1735	0.06	2.01%	-0.03%	-2.69%	0.71%	1.98%	1.59%	-0.50%	-0.02%	0.00%	-0.15%
Panama	G	4	1656	0.25	0.81%	1.72%	6.19%	-8.71%	2.52%	1.75%	-0.04%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%
Senegal	H	3	1748	0.11	2.71%	0.06%	-3.28%	0.51%	2.77%	2.04%	-0.58%	-0.05%	0.00%	-0.18%
Colombia	H	2	1911	0.21	7.59%	-4.52%	-2.75%	-0.31%	3.07%	4.11%	-2.23%	-0.37%	-0.12%	-0.96%
Belgium	G	1	1909	0.44	3.74%	4.05%	-3.71%	-4.08%	7.79%	8.98%	-0.32%	0.86%	0.39%	-0.67%
England	G	2	1914	0.52	8.44%	0.16%	-4.64%	-3.95%	8.60%	9.26%	-0.54%	0.48%	0.29%	-0.50%
Saudi Arabia	A	4	1596	0.55	4.11%	4.86%	1.39%	-10.37%	8.98%	0.13%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
Egypt	A	3	1654	0.73	6.34%	6.09%	0.86%	-13.29%	12.42%	0.49%	0.17%	0.01%	0.00%	0.04%
Russia	A	1	1781	0.71	9.11%	3.81%	-4.27%	-8.65%	12.92%	0.03%	0.80%	0.08%	0.02%	0.28%
Uruguay	A	2	1849	0.94	17.69%	-1.94%	-7.91%	-7.83%	15.75%	1.82%	1.78%	0.22%	0.11%	0.67%

Here are the Elo Weighted results (weighted 10^((elo ratings-1500)/400), because of Elo structure) :

Group	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
A	13.33	2.00	0.28	-0.76	-1.52	2.28	0.15	0.18	0.02	0.01	0.07
B	-13.52	-2.75	0.51	1.41	0.83	-2.24	2.18	1.77	0.33	0.18	0.78
C	-7.16	-0.73	-0.54	0.26	1.01	-1.27	-0.42	-0.06	-0.22	-0.08	0.09
D	1.45	0.61	-0.53	-0.16	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.07	-0.14	-0.06	0.10
E	-1.27	0.31	-0.79	-0.09	0.57	-0.48	-1.94	-0.17	0.29	0.14	-0.32
F	-4.70	-0.45	-0.39	0.27	0.56	-0.83	-2.06	-0.16	0.11	-0.20	-0.25
G	11.09	1.34	0.49	-0.69	-1.14	1.83	2.01	-0.09	0.14	0.07	-0.12
H	2.43	0.92	-0.52	-0.52	0.11	0.40	0.68	-0.39	-0.05	-0.01	-0.16

For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).

For the full simulation results see:
After the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html
Before the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/11/fifa-world-cup-2018-pre-draw-simulation.html

FIFA World Cup 2018 Simuations

So after the draw is now known,  I made o million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

I will first give the full simulation results, and on the next post I'll analyze the effect of the draw, and who are the winner and losers of the draw

Team	Group	Pot	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Brazil	E	1	2096	6.82	71.4%	19.5%	6.8%	2.2%	91.0%	68.1%	53.2%	38.4%	24.3%	10.2%
Germany	F	1	2089	6.72	69.5%	20.4%	7.6%	2.5%	89.9%	67.1%	52.2%	36.5%	21.9%	10.5%
Spain	B	2	2013	5.71	45.7%	32.4%	15.9%	6.0%	78.1%	63.2%	41.2%	22.0%	11.6%	11.5%
Portugal	B	1	1976	5.43	39.3%	34.6%	18.5%	7.7%	73.9%	56.7%	34.4%	16.8%	8.0%	9.7%
France	C	1	1969	5.59	48.2%	27.3%	16.3%	8.3%	75.4%	48.5%	28.2%	13.5%	6.5%	8.3%
Argentina	D	1	1966	5.80	52.0%	26.4%	14.7%	6.9%	78.4%	49.1%	27.7%	13.2%	6.2%	8.0%
England	G	2	1914	5.63	43.1%	34.7%	15.9%	6.4%	77.8%	47.8%	18.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.7%
Colombia	H	2	1911	5.31	43.9%	27.4%	18.0%	10.8%	71.2%	41.6%	16.2%	7.8%	3.2%	4.1%
Belgium	G	1	1909	5.70	44.3%	34.2%	15.4%	6.2%	78.5%	47.7%	18.4%	8.9%	3.7%	4.6%
Peru	C	2	1866	4.40	25.5%	30.1%	26.1%	18.2%	55.7%	27.9%	12.4%	4.3%	1.6%	3.5%
Uruguay	A	2	1849	5.52	45.8%	29.1%	16.7%	8.4%	74.9%	29.2%	13.0%	4.3%	1.5%	3.7%
Switzerland	E	2	1845	4.11	15.7%	37.2%	28.3%	18.9%	52.9%	18.7%	8.8%	3.5%	1.2%	2.2%
Croatia	D	2	1838	4.34	23.7%	31.0%	26.8%	18.5%	54.7%	24.6%	10.2%	3.2%	1.1%	2.8%
Mexico	F	2	1833	3.96	14.7%	34.2%	30.3%	20.9%	48.8%	16.7%	7.6%	2.9%	1.0%	1.8%
Poland	H	1	1821	4.44	27.4%	28.8%	24.7%	19.0%	56.2%	26.0%	7.3%	2.7%	0.9%	1.8%
Denmark	C	3	1820	3.82	18.0%	26.2%	30.2%	25.7%	44.2%	19.4%	7.4%	2.2%	0.7%	2.0%
Sweden	F	3	1805	3.55	11.2%	29.1%	33.2%	26.5%	40.3%	12.3%	5.2%	1.8%	0.6%	1.2%
Iceland	D	3	1791	3.75	16.7%	26.3%	30.9%	26.2%	42.9%	16.6%	5.8%	1.5%	0.4%	1.6%
Iran	B	3	1791	3.32	10.8%	21.6%	37.9%	29.8%	32.4%	17.2%	6.4%	1.7%	0.5%	1.7%
Russia	A	1	1781	4.91	32.9%	32.0%	22.1%	13.0%	64.9%	19.2%	6.8%	1.7%	0.5%	1.8%
Serbia	E	4	1752	2.93	6.8%	22.5%	32.8%	37.9%	29.3%	7.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.6%
Senegal	H	3	1748	3.48	15.4%	22.9%	28.8%	32.9%	38.3%	13.9%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.7%
Japan	H	4	1735	3.23	13.3%	20.9%	28.4%	37.3%	34.3%	11.8%	2.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.5%
Costa Rica	E	3	1728	2.81	6.1%	20.8%	32.2%	41.0%	26.8%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%
Australia	C	4	1718	2.69	8.3%	16.4%	27.4%	47.9%	24.7%	7.5%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
South Korea	F	4	1702	2.43	4.6%	16.4%	29.0%	50.1%	20.9%	4.1%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Nigeria	D	4	1691	2.64	7.6%	16.3%	27.7%	48.4%	23.9%	6.3%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Morocco	B	4	1686	2.17	4.2%	11.4%	27.7%	56.6%	15.7%	6.2%	1.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Panama	G	4	1656	2.79	7.1%	16.8%	35.6%	40.4%	24.0%	6.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Egypt	A	3	1654	3.39	13.1%	22.5%	32.2%	32.2%	35.6%	5.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Tunisia	G	3	1619	2.53	5.5%	14.3%	33.2%	47.0%	19.8%	4.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Saudi Arabia	A	4	1596	2.71	8.2%	16.5%	28.9%	46.5%	24.6%	2.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Pre Draw Simulation

The very much awaited FIFA World Cup 2018 draw is scheduled for December 1st.
The pots for the draw were announced, and are based on FIFA World Rankings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding

I made 1 million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).

The 3 most likely group stage matches are Mexico-Serbia with 33.6% (which could be part of the group of death), Iran-Morocco with 28.9% of taking place, and Iran-Nigeria with 28.9% as well.

What I found the most interesting, is that even the worst team according to ELO (Saudi Arabia) still have 15.7% probability of going to the last 16. The group stage is going to be very fierce.
Another interesting fact is Brazil having a higher probability than Germany of going out already in the GS , even though it is the best team according to ELO. It could be explained by the fact that there can only be 2 European teams per group, therefor Brazil have a higher probability to get tough teams from pots 3 and 4.

Without further ado, here are the average points in the GS, and probabilities of each team to get a GS rank and final positions:

Team	Pot	ELO	Avg_Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Russia	1	1781	4.20	23.8%	28.1%	26.4%	21.8%	51.9%	19.1%	6.1%	1.7%	0.5%	1.6%
Germany	1	2089	6.70	67.3%	22.7%	7.7%	2.3%	90.0%	70.9%	52.0%	36.0%	22.5%	11.1%
Brazil	1	2096	6.67	66.7%	22.9%	8.0%	2.4%	89.6%	71.4%	53.1%	37.4%	23.8%	11.0%
Portugal	1	1976	5.82	50.7%	28.6%	14.5%	6.3%	79.2%	50.9%	29.4%	15.4%	7.4%	7.9%
Argentina	1	1966	5.64	47.4%	29.2%	16.0%	7.4%	76.6%	48.2%	27.2%	13.9%	6.5%	7.4%
Belgium	1	1909	5.26	40.5%	30.2%	19.0%	10.3%	70.7%	38.7%	18.8%	8.1%	3.3%	5.2%
Poland	1	1821	4.53	28.5%	29.5%	24.5%	17.5%	58.0%	24.5%	9.0%	2.9%	0.9%	2.4%
France	1	1969	5.75	49.5%	28.8%	15.0%	6.7%	78.4%	49.6%	28.1%	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%
Spain	2	2013	5.91	48.5%	33.0%	13.7%	4.9%	81.5%	56.7%	36.3%	21.4%	11.1%	8.9%
Peru	2	1866	4.71	30.2%	31.3%	23.7%	14.8%	61.5%	29.9%	12.9%	4.9%	1.8%	3.5%
Switzerland	2	1845	4.54	25.8%	33.3%	25.1%	15.8%	59.1%	27.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.4%	3.0%
England	2	1914	5.12	34.7%	34.5%	20.5%	10.2%	69.2%	38.6%	19.4%	8.7%	3.6%	5.2%
Colombia	2	1911	5.09	36.4%	31.8%	20.7%	11.1%	68.2%	37.5%	18.5%	8.1%	3.3%	5.1%
Mexico	2	1833	4.30	23.1%	31.3%	26.6%	19.0%	54.4%	24.1%	9.4%	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%
Uruguay	2	1849	4.58	28.2%	31.0%	24.6%	16.2%	59.2%	27.4%	11.2%	4.0%	1.4%	3.1%
Croatia	2	1838	4.48	25.0%	33.0%	25.5%	16.5%	58.1%	26.1%	10.4%	3.6%	1.2%	2.7%
Denmark	3	1820	3.95	19.0%	27.4%	30.6%	23.0%	46.4%	19.8%	7.5%	2.4%	0.8%	2.0%
Iceland	3	1791	3.72	16.3%	25.8%	31.6%	26.4%	42.1%	16.3%	5.6%	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Costa Rica	3	1728	3.19	11.1%	21.2%	32.3%	35.3%	32.3%	10.0%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.6%
Sweden	3	1805	3.83	17.5%	26.6%	31.2%	24.7%	44.1%	17.9%	6.4%	2.0%	0.6%	1.7%
Tunisia	3	1619	2.41	5.1%	14.0%	30.3%	50.6%	19.1%	3.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Egypt	3	1654	2.66	6.7%	16.4%	31.5%	45.4%	23.2%	5.2%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Senegal	3	1748	3.37	12.7%	22.9%	32.1%	32.3%	35.6%	11.9%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.8%
Iran	3	1791	3.70	16.4%	25.4%	31.2%	27.0%	41.9%	16.2%	5.6%	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Serbia	4	1752	3.32	12.3%	22.5%	31.5%	33.6%	34.9%	11.8%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%	0.9%
Nigeria	4	1691	2.68	7.9%	16.3%	28.2%	47.6%	24.2%	6.4%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Australia	4	1718	3.04	10.1%	19.9%	31.1%	38.9%	29.9%	8.8%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%
Japan	4	1735	3.17	11.3%	20.9%	31.2%	36.6%	32.2%	10.2%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%
Morocco	4	1686	2.64	7.6%	16.0%	28.1%	48.3%	23.6%	6.1%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
Panama	4	1656	2.54	6.3%	15.1%	29.5%	49.1%	21.4%	4.8%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
South Korea	4	1702	2.92	9.1%	18.8%	30.9%	41.2%	27.9%	7.7%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%
Saudi Arabia	4	1596	2.16	4.0%	11.7%	27.5%	56.8%	15.7%	2.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

Update: draw procedure claim that there should be at least one European team in each group. Probabilities updated accordingly. 

FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations

I finally got the time to work on importing the data to simulate the Fifa World Cup 2014 European Qualifying group stage.
The simulations are based on ELO ratings, and  the number of home and away goals are assumed to be independent Random Poisson Variables with an expectancy of:
Goals for the Home team:
        if Proba < 0.5:
            Home Goals = 0.2 + 1.1*sqrt(Proba/0.5)
        else:
            Home Goals = 1.69 / (1.12*sqrt(2 -Proba/0.5)+0.18)

Goals for the Away team:
        if Proba < 0.8:
            Away goals = -0.96 + 1/(0.1+0.44*sqrt((Proba+0.1)/0.9))

        else:
            Away goals = 0.72*sqrt((1 - Proba)/0.3)+0.3

 where Proba is the probability of the home team by ELO ratings.
This formula made by Lars, the owner of http://clubelo.com/, and it makes the prediction very accurate according to his research.

The worst RU is most likely to come out of group 2, with 27.88%.

After 100K simulations (ordered by chances of winning the group):

Group	Team	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Worst RU
4	Netherlands	1972	26.75	96.28%	3.45%	0.26%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Russia	1867	25.64	88.86%	10.92%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
2	Italy	1899	22.75	85.62%	11.11%	2.63%	0.62%	0.02%	0.00%	1.53%
5	Switzerland	1793	22.81	82.18%	16.68%	1.02%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%	0.56%
9	Spain	2123	19.87	82.08%	17.88%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%
3	Germany	2025	25.05	81.94%	17.21%	0.84%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%
8	England	1938	22.19	77.68%	16.27%	5.10%	0.95%	0.01%	0.00%	2.23%
7	Greece	1788	23.46	65.14%	32.88%	1.88%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.52%
1	Croatia	1853	21.70	55.73%	41.43%	2.43%	0.38%	0.04%	0.00%	2.90%
1	Belgium	1768	20.78	43.65%	53.03%	2.86%	0.40%	0.06%	0.01%	3.26%
7	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1711	21.14	33.68%	56.93%	8.41%	0.95%	0.04%	0.00%	3.39%
9	France	1848	16.96	17.90%	80.66%	1.35%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	1.67%
5	Norway	1712	18.86	17.08%	69.84%	9.83%	2.51%	0.67%	0.09%	8.66%
3	Sweden	1866	21.53	16.80%	65.87%	15.67%	1.65%	0.01%	0.00%	2.78%
8	Montenegro	1638	17.91	12.24%	34.84%	35.05%	16.31%	1.55%	0.00%	6.86%
6	Portugal	1884	20.67	10.87%	79.96%	8.70%	0.46%	0.02%	0.00%	5.34%
2	Czech Republic	1741	16.45	8.08%	35.16%	28.97%	21.89%	5.88%	0.02%	8.89%
8	Poland	1681	17.60	8.07%	35.06%	33.51%	21.82%	1.54%	0.00%	6.30%
2	Denmark	1745	15.76	4.23%	31.46%	31.93%	25.04%	7.27%	0.06%	9.47%
4	Romania	1717	19.30	2.36%	53.20%	35.18%	9.08%	0.18%	0.00%	6.02%
2	Bulgaria	1641	15.03	2.02%	20.48%	31.19%	38.12%	8.13%	0.06%	7.06%
8	Ukraine	1673	15.00	2.01%	13.62%	25.07%	52.95%	6.36%	0.00%	1.50%
4	Hungary	1680	18.21	1.34%	39.47%	46.82%	12.11%	0.26%	0.00%	7.73%
3	Republic of Ireland	1711	17.24	1.23%	15.29%	67.40%	16.00%	0.08%	0.00%	2.84%
7	Slovakia	1581	15.12	1.12%	8.73%	60.02%	23.46%	6.65%	0.04%	0.80%
1	Serbia	1635	11.42	0.43%	2.99%	40.16%	27.87%	18.23%	10.32%	0.44%
5	Iceland	1452	12.35	0.27%	4.72%	33.44%	29.53%	22.95%	9.09%	0.62%
6	Israel	1608	14.87	0.27%	8.46%	73.69%	15.03%	2.53%	0.02%	1.85%
5	Slovenia	1582	11.81	0.26%	4.53%	31.33%	28.24%	23.94%	11.69%	1.56%
5	Albania	1470	11.33	0.20%	3.97%	20.51%	29.44%	30.59%	15.30%	0.96%
1	Macedonia	1503	10.03	0.08%	1.12%	21.13%	26.56%	26.28%	24.84%	0.22%
1	Scotland	1626	9.19	0.07%	0.74%	15.83%	22.32%	28.58%	32.45%	0.04%
1	Wales	1551	9.74	0.05%	0.70%	17.59%	22.47%	26.82%	32.37%	0.28%
2	Armenia	1496	10.11	0.05%	1.80%	5.27%	14.24%	76.70%	1.94%	0.93%
7	Lithuania	1450	11.57	0.04%	0.90%	16.36%	40.93%	41.11%	0.66%	0.27%
7	Latvia	1487	10.82	0.03%	0.58%	13.33%	34.44%	50.39%	1.24%	0.25%
3	Austria	1588	12.49	0.03%	1.63%	16.07%	79.85%	2.32%	0.10%	0.15%
4	Turkey	1676	13.72	0.02%	3.86%	17.36%	71.73%	7.03%	0.01%	1.44%
5	Cyprus	1409	8.02	0.02%	0.26%	3.87%	10.18%	21.84%	63.83%	0.05%
9	Finland	1590	6.15	0.01%	0.38%	32.16%	35.58%	31.87%	0.00%	0.08%
9	Belarus	1551	7.75	0.01%	0.89%	51.61%	30.41%	17.09%	0.00%	0.24%
6	Northern Ireland	1420	9.69	0.01%	0.47%	11.24%	44.33%	38.84%	5.12%	0.04%
8	Moldova	1382	9.68	0.00%	0.21%	1.28%	7.97%	90.48%	0.06%	0.10%
6	Azerbaijan	1378	9.06	0.00%	0.19%	6.13%	38.61%	47.68%	7.38%	0.08%
8	San Marino	860	0.65	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	99.94%	0.00%
9	Georgia	1477	4.99	0.00%	0.19%	14.85%	33.93%	51.03%	0.00%	0.04%
7	Liechtenstein	1167	2.31	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.12%	1.81%	98.07%	0.00%
4	Estonia	1465	8.48	0.00%	0.02%	0.39%	7.07%	92.22%	0.30%	0.01%
6	Luxembourg	1121	3.64	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	1.57%	10.94%	87.48%	0.00%
3	Faroe Islands	1191	3.33	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	1.22%	28.00%	70.77%	0.00%
4	Andorra	973	0.79	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.31%	99.69%	0.00%
2	Malta	1202	2.21	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.08%	2.00%	97.92%	0.00%
3	Kazakhstan	1312	5.22	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	1.27%	69.59%	29.13%	0.00%