FIFA World Cup 2018 Simuations

So after the draw is now known,  I made o million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

I will first give the full simulation results, and on the next post I'll analyze the effect of the draw, and who are the winner and losers of the draw

Team	Group	Pot	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Brazil	E	1	2096	6.82	71.4%	19.5%	6.8%	2.2%	91.0%	68.1%	53.2%	38.4%	24.3%	10.2%
Germany	F	1	2089	6.72	69.5%	20.4%	7.6%	2.5%	89.9%	67.1%	52.2%	36.5%	21.9%	10.5%
Spain	B	2	2013	5.71	45.7%	32.4%	15.9%	6.0%	78.1%	63.2%	41.2%	22.0%	11.6%	11.5%
Portugal	B	1	1976	5.43	39.3%	34.6%	18.5%	7.7%	73.9%	56.7%	34.4%	16.8%	8.0%	9.7%
France	C	1	1969	5.59	48.2%	27.3%	16.3%	8.3%	75.4%	48.5%	28.2%	13.5%	6.5%	8.3%
Argentina	D	1	1966	5.80	52.0%	26.4%	14.7%	6.9%	78.4%	49.1%	27.7%	13.2%	6.2%	8.0%
England	G	2	1914	5.63	43.1%	34.7%	15.9%	6.4%	77.8%	47.8%	18.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.7%
Colombia	H	2	1911	5.31	43.9%	27.4%	18.0%	10.8%	71.2%	41.6%	16.2%	7.8%	3.2%	4.1%
Belgium	G	1	1909	5.70	44.3%	34.2%	15.4%	6.2%	78.5%	47.7%	18.4%	8.9%	3.7%	4.6%
Peru	C	2	1866	4.40	25.5%	30.1%	26.1%	18.2%	55.7%	27.9%	12.4%	4.3%	1.6%	3.5%
Uruguay	A	2	1849	5.52	45.8%	29.1%	16.7%	8.4%	74.9%	29.2%	13.0%	4.3%	1.5%	3.7%
Switzerland	E	2	1845	4.11	15.7%	37.2%	28.3%	18.9%	52.9%	18.7%	8.8%	3.5%	1.2%	2.2%
Croatia	D	2	1838	4.34	23.7%	31.0%	26.8%	18.5%	54.7%	24.6%	10.2%	3.2%	1.1%	2.8%
Mexico	F	2	1833	3.96	14.7%	34.2%	30.3%	20.9%	48.8%	16.7%	7.6%	2.9%	1.0%	1.8%
Poland	H	1	1821	4.44	27.4%	28.8%	24.7%	19.0%	56.2%	26.0%	7.3%	2.7%	0.9%	1.8%
Denmark	C	3	1820	3.82	18.0%	26.2%	30.2%	25.7%	44.2%	19.4%	7.4%	2.2%	0.7%	2.0%
Sweden	F	3	1805	3.55	11.2%	29.1%	33.2%	26.5%	40.3%	12.3%	5.2%	1.8%	0.6%	1.2%
Iceland	D	3	1791	3.75	16.7%	26.3%	30.9%	26.2%	42.9%	16.6%	5.8%	1.5%	0.4%	1.6%
Iran	B	3	1791	3.32	10.8%	21.6%	37.9%	29.8%	32.4%	17.2%	6.4%	1.7%	0.5%	1.7%
Russia	A	1	1781	4.91	32.9%	32.0%	22.1%	13.0%	64.9%	19.2%	6.8%	1.7%	0.5%	1.8%
Serbia	E	4	1752	2.93	6.8%	22.5%	32.8%	37.9%	29.3%	7.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.6%
Senegal	H	3	1748	3.48	15.4%	22.9%	28.8%	32.9%	38.3%	13.9%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.7%
Japan	H	4	1735	3.23	13.3%	20.9%	28.4%	37.3%	34.3%	11.8%	2.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.5%
Costa Rica	E	3	1728	2.81	6.1%	20.8%	32.2%	41.0%	26.8%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%
Australia	C	4	1718	2.69	8.3%	16.4%	27.4%	47.9%	24.7%	7.5%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
South Korea	F	4	1702	2.43	4.6%	16.4%	29.0%	50.1%	20.9%	4.1%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Nigeria	D	4	1691	2.64	7.6%	16.3%	27.7%	48.4%	23.9%	6.3%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Morocco	B	4	1686	2.17	4.2%	11.4%	27.7%	56.6%	15.7%	6.2%	1.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Panama	G	4	1656	2.79	7.1%	16.8%	35.6%	40.4%	24.0%	6.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Egypt	A	3	1654	3.39	13.1%	22.5%	32.2%	32.2%	35.6%	5.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Tunisia	G	3	1619	2.53	5.5%	14.3%	33.2%	47.0%	19.8%	4.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Saudi Arabia	A	4	1596	2.71	8.2%	16.5%	28.9%	46.5%	24.6%	2.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Pre Draw Simulation

The very much awaited FIFA World Cup 2018 draw is scheduled for December 1st.
The pots for the draw were announced, and are based on FIFA World Rankings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding

I made 1 million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).

The 3 most likely group stage matches are Mexico-Serbia with 33.6% (which could be part of the group of death), Iran-Morocco with 28.9% of taking place, and Iran-Nigeria with 28.9% as well.

What I found the most interesting, is that even the worst team according to ELO (Saudi Arabia) still have 15.7% probability of going to the last 16. The group stage is going to be very fierce.
Another interesting fact is Brazil having a higher probability than Germany of going out already in the GS , even though it is the best team according to ELO. It could be explained by the fact that there can only be 2 European teams per group, therefor Brazil have a higher probability to get tough teams from pots 3 and 4.

Without further ado, here are the average points in the GS, and probabilities of each team to get a GS rank and final positions:

Team	Pot	ELO	Avg_Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Russia	1	1781	4.20	23.8%	28.1%	26.4%	21.8%	51.9%	19.1%	6.1%	1.7%	0.5%	1.6%
Germany	1	2089	6.70	67.3%	22.7%	7.7%	2.3%	90.0%	70.9%	52.0%	36.0%	22.5%	11.1%
Brazil	1	2096	6.67	66.7%	22.9%	8.0%	2.4%	89.6%	71.4%	53.1%	37.4%	23.8%	11.0%
Portugal	1	1976	5.82	50.7%	28.6%	14.5%	6.3%	79.2%	50.9%	29.4%	15.4%	7.4%	7.9%
Argentina	1	1966	5.64	47.4%	29.2%	16.0%	7.4%	76.6%	48.2%	27.2%	13.9%	6.5%	7.4%
Belgium	1	1909	5.26	40.5%	30.2%	19.0%	10.3%	70.7%	38.7%	18.8%	8.1%	3.3%	5.2%
Poland	1	1821	4.53	28.5%	29.5%	24.5%	17.5%	58.0%	24.5%	9.0%	2.9%	0.9%	2.4%
France	1	1969	5.75	49.5%	28.8%	15.0%	6.7%	78.4%	49.6%	28.1%	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%
Spain	2	2013	5.91	48.5%	33.0%	13.7%	4.9%	81.5%	56.7%	36.3%	21.4%	11.1%	8.9%
Peru	2	1866	4.71	30.2%	31.3%	23.7%	14.8%	61.5%	29.9%	12.9%	4.9%	1.8%	3.5%
Switzerland	2	1845	4.54	25.8%	33.3%	25.1%	15.8%	59.1%	27.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.4%	3.0%
England	2	1914	5.12	34.7%	34.5%	20.5%	10.2%	69.2%	38.6%	19.4%	8.7%	3.6%	5.2%
Colombia	2	1911	5.09	36.4%	31.8%	20.7%	11.1%	68.2%	37.5%	18.5%	8.1%	3.3%	5.1%
Mexico	2	1833	4.30	23.1%	31.3%	26.6%	19.0%	54.4%	24.1%	9.4%	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%
Uruguay	2	1849	4.58	28.2%	31.0%	24.6%	16.2%	59.2%	27.4%	11.2%	4.0%	1.4%	3.1%
Croatia	2	1838	4.48	25.0%	33.0%	25.5%	16.5%	58.1%	26.1%	10.4%	3.6%	1.2%	2.7%
Denmark	3	1820	3.95	19.0%	27.4%	30.6%	23.0%	46.4%	19.8%	7.5%	2.4%	0.8%	2.0%
Iceland	3	1791	3.72	16.3%	25.8%	31.6%	26.4%	42.1%	16.3%	5.6%	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Costa Rica	3	1728	3.19	11.1%	21.2%	32.3%	35.3%	32.3%	10.0%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.6%
Sweden	3	1805	3.83	17.5%	26.6%	31.2%	24.7%	44.1%	17.9%	6.4%	2.0%	0.6%	1.7%
Tunisia	3	1619	2.41	5.1%	14.0%	30.3%	50.6%	19.1%	3.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Egypt	3	1654	2.66	6.7%	16.4%	31.5%	45.4%	23.2%	5.2%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Senegal	3	1748	3.37	12.7%	22.9%	32.1%	32.3%	35.6%	11.9%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.8%
Iran	3	1791	3.70	16.4%	25.4%	31.2%	27.0%	41.9%	16.2%	5.6%	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Serbia	4	1752	3.32	12.3%	22.5%	31.5%	33.6%	34.9%	11.8%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%	0.9%
Nigeria	4	1691	2.68	7.9%	16.3%	28.2%	47.6%	24.2%	6.4%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Australia	4	1718	3.04	10.1%	19.9%	31.1%	38.9%	29.9%	8.8%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%
Japan	4	1735	3.17	11.3%	20.9%	31.2%	36.6%	32.2%	10.2%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%
Morocco	4	1686	2.64	7.6%	16.0%	28.1%	48.3%	23.6%	6.1%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
Panama	4	1656	2.54	6.3%	15.1%	29.5%	49.1%	21.4%	4.8%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
South Korea	4	1702	2.92	9.1%	18.8%	30.9%	41.2%	27.9%	7.7%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%
Saudi Arabia	4	1596	2.16	4.0%	11.7%	27.5%	56.8%	15.7%	2.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

Update: draw procedure claim that there should be at least one European team in each group. Probabilities updated accordingly. 

FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations

I finally got the time to work on importing the data to simulate the Fifa World Cup 2014 European Qualifying group stage.
The simulations are based on ELO ratings, and  the number of home and away goals are assumed to be independent Random Poisson Variables with an expectancy of:
Goals for the Home team:
        if Proba < 0.5:
            Home Goals = 0.2 + 1.1*sqrt(Proba/0.5)
        else:
            Home Goals = 1.69 / (1.12*sqrt(2 -Proba/0.5)+0.18)

Goals for the Away team:
        if Proba < 0.8:
            Away goals = -0.96 + 1/(0.1+0.44*sqrt((Proba+0.1)/0.9))

        else:
            Away goals = 0.72*sqrt((1 - Proba)/0.3)+0.3

 where Proba is the probability of the home team by ELO ratings.
This formula made by Lars, the owner of http://clubelo.com/, and it makes the prediction very accurate according to his research.

The worst RU is most likely to come out of group 2, with 27.88%.

After 100K simulations (ordered by chances of winning the group):

Group	Team	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Worst RU
4	Netherlands	1972	26.75	96.28%	3.45%	0.26%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Russia	1867	25.64	88.86%	10.92%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
2	Italy	1899	22.75	85.62%	11.11%	2.63%	0.62%	0.02%	0.00%	1.53%
5	Switzerland	1793	22.81	82.18%	16.68%	1.02%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%	0.56%
9	Spain	2123	19.87	82.08%	17.88%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%
3	Germany	2025	25.05	81.94%	17.21%	0.84%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%
8	England	1938	22.19	77.68%	16.27%	5.10%	0.95%	0.01%	0.00%	2.23%
7	Greece	1788	23.46	65.14%	32.88%	1.88%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.52%
1	Croatia	1853	21.70	55.73%	41.43%	2.43%	0.38%	0.04%	0.00%	2.90%
1	Belgium	1768	20.78	43.65%	53.03%	2.86%	0.40%	0.06%	0.01%	3.26%
7	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1711	21.14	33.68%	56.93%	8.41%	0.95%	0.04%	0.00%	3.39%
9	France	1848	16.96	17.90%	80.66%	1.35%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	1.67%
5	Norway	1712	18.86	17.08%	69.84%	9.83%	2.51%	0.67%	0.09%	8.66%
3	Sweden	1866	21.53	16.80%	65.87%	15.67%	1.65%	0.01%	0.00%	2.78%
8	Montenegro	1638	17.91	12.24%	34.84%	35.05%	16.31%	1.55%	0.00%	6.86%
6	Portugal	1884	20.67	10.87%	79.96%	8.70%	0.46%	0.02%	0.00%	5.34%
2	Czech Republic	1741	16.45	8.08%	35.16%	28.97%	21.89%	5.88%	0.02%	8.89%
8	Poland	1681	17.60	8.07%	35.06%	33.51%	21.82%	1.54%	0.00%	6.30%
2	Denmark	1745	15.76	4.23%	31.46%	31.93%	25.04%	7.27%	0.06%	9.47%
4	Romania	1717	19.30	2.36%	53.20%	35.18%	9.08%	0.18%	0.00%	6.02%
2	Bulgaria	1641	15.03	2.02%	20.48%	31.19%	38.12%	8.13%	0.06%	7.06%
8	Ukraine	1673	15.00	2.01%	13.62%	25.07%	52.95%	6.36%	0.00%	1.50%
4	Hungary	1680	18.21	1.34%	39.47%	46.82%	12.11%	0.26%	0.00%	7.73%
3	Republic of Ireland	1711	17.24	1.23%	15.29%	67.40%	16.00%	0.08%	0.00%	2.84%
7	Slovakia	1581	15.12	1.12%	8.73%	60.02%	23.46%	6.65%	0.04%	0.80%
1	Serbia	1635	11.42	0.43%	2.99%	40.16%	27.87%	18.23%	10.32%	0.44%
5	Iceland	1452	12.35	0.27%	4.72%	33.44%	29.53%	22.95%	9.09%	0.62%
6	Israel	1608	14.87	0.27%	8.46%	73.69%	15.03%	2.53%	0.02%	1.85%
5	Slovenia	1582	11.81	0.26%	4.53%	31.33%	28.24%	23.94%	11.69%	1.56%
5	Albania	1470	11.33	0.20%	3.97%	20.51%	29.44%	30.59%	15.30%	0.96%
1	Macedonia	1503	10.03	0.08%	1.12%	21.13%	26.56%	26.28%	24.84%	0.22%
1	Scotland	1626	9.19	0.07%	0.74%	15.83%	22.32%	28.58%	32.45%	0.04%
1	Wales	1551	9.74	0.05%	0.70%	17.59%	22.47%	26.82%	32.37%	0.28%
2	Armenia	1496	10.11	0.05%	1.80%	5.27%	14.24%	76.70%	1.94%	0.93%
7	Lithuania	1450	11.57	0.04%	0.90%	16.36%	40.93%	41.11%	0.66%	0.27%
7	Latvia	1487	10.82	0.03%	0.58%	13.33%	34.44%	50.39%	1.24%	0.25%
3	Austria	1588	12.49	0.03%	1.63%	16.07%	79.85%	2.32%	0.10%	0.15%
4	Turkey	1676	13.72	0.02%	3.86%	17.36%	71.73%	7.03%	0.01%	1.44%
5	Cyprus	1409	8.02	0.02%	0.26%	3.87%	10.18%	21.84%	63.83%	0.05%
9	Finland	1590	6.15	0.01%	0.38%	32.16%	35.58%	31.87%	0.00%	0.08%
9	Belarus	1551	7.75	0.01%	0.89%	51.61%	30.41%	17.09%	0.00%	0.24%
6	Northern Ireland	1420	9.69	0.01%	0.47%	11.24%	44.33%	38.84%	5.12%	0.04%
8	Moldova	1382	9.68	0.00%	0.21%	1.28%	7.97%	90.48%	0.06%	0.10%
6	Azerbaijan	1378	9.06	0.00%	0.19%	6.13%	38.61%	47.68%	7.38%	0.08%
8	San Marino	860	0.65	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	99.94%	0.00%
9	Georgia	1477	4.99	0.00%	0.19%	14.85%	33.93%	51.03%	0.00%	0.04%
7	Liechtenstein	1167	2.31	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.12%	1.81%	98.07%	0.00%
4	Estonia	1465	8.48	0.00%	0.02%	0.39%	7.07%	92.22%	0.30%	0.01%
6	Luxembourg	1121	3.64	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	1.57%	10.94%	87.48%	0.00%
3	Faroe Islands	1191	3.33	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	1.22%	28.00%	70.77%	0.00%
4	Andorra	973	0.79	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.31%	99.69%	0.00%
2	Malta	1202	2.21	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.08%	2.00%	97.92%	0.00%
3	Kazakhstan	1312	5.22	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	1.27%	69.59%	29.13%	0.00%