FIFA World Cup 2018 - Draw Analysis

The draw result for FIFA World Cup 2018 is (taken from FIFA.com):

Let's start by looking at the Elo Ratings of the teams by group:

Group	Elo_Avg	Elo_Std
A	1720.00	100.12
B	1866.50	133.92
C	1843.25	90.22
D	1821.50	98.89
E	1855.25	145.70
F	1857.25	142.42
G	1774.50	137.63
H	1803.75	70.06

The most balanced group is group H, and any final ranking seem reasonable.
Group A is the easiest group by far, and in fact it has one of the worst 3 teams from each one of the seeding pots according to Elo.

The hardest groups are groups B, E and F. On first look it would seem maybe that Portugal and Spain have a relatively easy draw, because of the bottom 2 teams in their group. Group E has 3 teams that reached the last 16 in FIFA World Cup 2014, and group F has last 16 regulars Germany and Mexico, in addition to giant slayer Sweden, that eliminated both Netherlands and Italy.

I made 1 million simulations of the tournament before and after the draw using Elo Ratings (adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts) in order to test the draw more scientifically:
The number represent the cumulative percentage change of reaching a certain position/round for all teams in the group.

Group	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
A	2.93	37.25%	12.82%	-9.92%	-40.14%	50.07%	2.47%	2.79%	0.31%	0.14%	0.99%
B	-1.46	-23.43%	-2.91%	12.65%	13.69%	-26.34%	13.23%	10.91%	2.02%	1.06%	4.65%
C	-0.97	-8.99%	-7.49%	-0.22%	16.69%	-16.47%	-4.99%	-0.96%	-2.05%	-0.66%	0.57%
D	0.01	3.58%	-4.55%	-1.34%	2.31%	-0.97%	-0.28%	0.50%	-1.32%	-0.52%	0.81%
E	-1.05	-15.86%	-0.09%	2.97%	12.98%	-15.95%	-20.38%	-3.75%	0.33%	0.24%	-2.04%
F	-1.07	-17.04%	1.07%	3.61%	12.36%	-15.98%	-20.31%	-3.53%	-0.05%	-0.79%	-1.85%
G	1.33	13.38%	6.27%	0.68%	-20.32%	19.64%	21.05%	-0.95%	1.36%	0.69%	-1.19%
H	0.30	11.12%	-5.11%	-8.43%	2.42%	6.00%	9.20%	-5.01%	-0.60%	-0.16%	-1.94%

As expected, Group A teams were expected about 1.5 qualifications to R16 before he draw, and after the draw obviously 2 of them would qualify. When looking at the quarter finals, group H teams are actually the winners, avoiding the top 6 Elo teams until the quarter finals. Group B team are actually the winners when it comes to raising the probability of winning the tournament.
The losers of the draw when looking at the chance of going out in the group stage are Group B teams. It is easy to sometimes underestimate the bottom teams in the group, but their chance of qualifying is not negligible. Having Spain in that group reduced Portugal chance of qualifying significantly. When looking at the quarter finals probability, group E and F are the biggest losers, since they will meet each other in the R16, and both groups are very strong.
The results of the draw are very significant for the participating teams, but of course the games still need to be played, and the ability and luck their would b even more significant.

Here are the results by team (order by difference in R16 from lowest to highest):

Team	Group	Pot	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Iran	B	3	1791	-0.38	-5.63%	-3.89%	6.70%	2.82%	-9.52%	0.99%	0.86%	0.05%	0.02%	0.29%
Morocco	B	4	1686	-0.48	-3.37%	-4.61%	-0.35%	8.33%	-7.98%	0.06%	0.13%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%
South Korea	F	4	1702	-0.49	-4.56%	-2.27%	-1.95%	8.78%	-6.83%	-3.62%	-0.65%	-0.09%	-0.02%	-0.16%
Switzerland	E	2	1845	-0.43	-10.22%	3.98%	3.21%	3.03%	-6.24%	-8.42%	-2.25%	-0.45%	-0.17%	-0.80%
Peru	C	2	1866	-0.31	-4.72%	-1.29%	2.53%	3.49%	-6.01%	-2.12%	-0.54%	-0.60%	-0.18%	-0.01%
Costa Rica	E	3	1728	-0.39	-5.09%	-0.47%	-0.15%	5.71%	-5.56%	-4.14%	-0.73%	-0.11%	-0.03%	-0.21%
Serbia	E	4	1752	-0.38	-5.30%	-0.20%	1.08%	4.42%	-5.50%	-4.66%	-0.97%	-0.19%	-0.06%	-0.26%
Portugal	B	1	1976	-0.39	-11.39%	5.97%	4.03%	1.40%	-5.42%	5.71%	4.98%	1.38%	0.58%	1.78%
Mexico	F	2	1833	-0.32	-8.27%	3.06%	3.59%	1.63%	-5.22%	-7.30%	-1.81%	-0.28%	-0.09%	-0.67%
Australia	C	4	1718	-0.35	-1.77%	-3.41%	-3.73%	8.91%	-5.19%	-1.28%	-0.30%	-0.13%	-0.03%	-0.06%
Sweden	F	3	1805	-0.28	-6.33%	2.53%	2.08%	1.72%	-3.80%	-5.60%	-1.25%	-0.17%	-0.04%	-0.42%
Croatia	D	2	1838	-0.14	-1.29%	-2.15%	1.35%	2.08%	-3.44%	-1.38%	-0.28%	-0.46%	-0.15%	0.06%
Spain	B	2	2013	-0.22	-3.04%	-0.38%	2.27%	1.15%	-3.42%	6.48%	4.95%	0.59%	0.45%	2.56%
France	C	1	1969	-0.17	-1.45%	-1.58%	1.36%	1.67%	-3.03%	-1.18%	-0.03%	-1.02%	-0.36%	0.57%
Denmark	C	3	1820	-0.14	-1.04%	-1.20%	-0.39%	2.62%	-2.24%	-0.40%	-0.09%	-0.30%	-0.08%	0.07%
Poland	H	1	1821	-0.09	-1.20%	-0.62%	0.29%	1.52%	-1.82%	1.45%	-1.70%	-0.16%	-0.04%	-0.64%
Nigeria	D	4	1691	-0.05	-0.24%	-0.11%	-0.60%	0.96%	-0.35%	-0.20%	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.01%
Germany	F	1	2089	0.02	2.12%	-2.25%	-0.11%	0.24%	-0.13%	-3.79%	0.17%	0.49%	-0.63%	-0.60%
Tunisia	G	3	1619	0.12	0.40%	0.34%	2.85%	-3.58%	0.73%	1.06%	-0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.01%
Iceland	D	3	1791	0.03	0.46%	0.45%	-0.70%	-0.22%	0.91%	0.35%	0.23%	-0.13%	-0.04%	0.14%
Brazil	E	1	2096	0.16	4.74%	-3.40%	-1.16%	-0.18%	1.34%	-3.16%	0.20%	1.07%	0.50%	-0.77%
Argentina	D	1	1966	0.17	4.65%	-2.74%	-1.39%	-0.51%	1.91%	0.96%	0.54%	-0.70%	-0.34%	0.60%
Japan	H	4	1735	0.06	2.01%	-0.03%	-2.69%	0.71%	1.98%	1.59%	-0.50%	-0.02%	0.00%	-0.15%
Panama	G	4	1656	0.25	0.81%	1.72%	6.19%	-8.71%	2.52%	1.75%	-0.04%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%
Senegal	H	3	1748	0.11	2.71%	0.06%	-3.28%	0.51%	2.77%	2.04%	-0.58%	-0.05%	0.00%	-0.18%
Colombia	H	2	1911	0.21	7.59%	-4.52%	-2.75%	-0.31%	3.07%	4.11%	-2.23%	-0.37%	-0.12%	-0.96%
Belgium	G	1	1909	0.44	3.74%	4.05%	-3.71%	-4.08%	7.79%	8.98%	-0.32%	0.86%	0.39%	-0.67%
England	G	2	1914	0.52	8.44%	0.16%	-4.64%	-3.95%	8.60%	9.26%	-0.54%	0.48%	0.29%	-0.50%
Saudi Arabia	A	4	1596	0.55	4.11%	4.86%	1.39%	-10.37%	8.98%	0.13%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
Egypt	A	3	1654	0.73	6.34%	6.09%	0.86%	-13.29%	12.42%	0.49%	0.17%	0.01%	0.00%	0.04%
Russia	A	1	1781	0.71	9.11%	3.81%	-4.27%	-8.65%	12.92%	0.03%	0.80%	0.08%	0.02%	0.28%
Uruguay	A	2	1849	0.94	17.69%	-1.94%	-7.91%	-7.83%	15.75%	1.82%	1.78%	0.22%	0.11%	0.67%

Here are the Elo Weighted results (weighted 10^((elo ratings-1500)/400), because of Elo structure) :

Group	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
A	13.33	2.00	0.28	-0.76	-1.52	2.28	0.15	0.18	0.02	0.01	0.07
B	-13.52	-2.75	0.51	1.41	0.83	-2.24	2.18	1.77	0.33	0.18	0.78
C	-7.16	-0.73	-0.54	0.26	1.01	-1.27	-0.42	-0.06	-0.22	-0.08	0.09
D	1.45	0.61	-0.53	-0.16	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.07	-0.14	-0.06	0.10
E	-1.27	0.31	-0.79	-0.09	0.57	-0.48	-1.94	-0.17	0.29	0.14	-0.32
F	-4.70	-0.45	-0.39	0.27	0.56	-0.83	-2.06	-0.16	0.11	-0.20	-0.25
G	11.09	1.34	0.49	-0.69	-1.14	1.83	2.01	-0.09	0.14	0.07	-0.12
H	2.43	0.92	-0.52	-0.52	0.11	0.40	0.68	-0.39	-0.05	-0.01	-0.16

For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html
The exact procedure wasn't published yet, so I assumed the draw would be made in order of the pots (pot 1, then pot 2 and so on).

For the full simulation results see:
After the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html
Before the draw - http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/11/fifa-world-cup-2018-pre-draw-simulation.html

FIFA World Cup 2018 Simuations

So after the draw is now known,  I made o million simulations of the tournament using Elo Ratings, adding 100 points for Russia for being hosts.
For full methodology please see:
https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2012/09/uefa-cl-and-el-2012-13-simulations.html

I will first give the full simulation results, and on the next post I'll analyze the effect of the draw, and who are the winner and losers of the draw

Team	Group	Pot	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16	Quarters	Semis	final	winner	3rd
Brazil	E	1	2096	6.82	71.4%	19.5%	6.8%	2.2%	91.0%	68.1%	53.2%	38.4%	24.3%	10.2%
Germany	F	1	2089	6.72	69.5%	20.4%	7.6%	2.5%	89.9%	67.1%	52.2%	36.5%	21.9%	10.5%
Spain	B	2	2013	5.71	45.7%	32.4%	15.9%	6.0%	78.1%	63.2%	41.2%	22.0%	11.6%	11.5%
Portugal	B	1	1976	5.43	39.3%	34.6%	18.5%	7.7%	73.9%	56.7%	34.4%	16.8%	8.0%	9.7%
France	C	1	1969	5.59	48.2%	27.3%	16.3%	8.3%	75.4%	48.5%	28.2%	13.5%	6.5%	8.3%
Argentina	D	1	1966	5.80	52.0%	26.4%	14.7%	6.9%	78.4%	49.1%	27.7%	13.2%	6.2%	8.0%
England	G	2	1914	5.63	43.1%	34.7%	15.9%	6.4%	77.8%	47.8%	18.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.7%
Colombia	H	2	1911	5.31	43.9%	27.4%	18.0%	10.8%	71.2%	41.6%	16.2%	7.8%	3.2%	4.1%
Belgium	G	1	1909	5.70	44.3%	34.2%	15.4%	6.2%	78.5%	47.7%	18.4%	8.9%	3.7%	4.6%
Peru	C	2	1866	4.40	25.5%	30.1%	26.1%	18.2%	55.7%	27.9%	12.4%	4.3%	1.6%	3.5%
Uruguay	A	2	1849	5.52	45.8%	29.1%	16.7%	8.4%	74.9%	29.2%	13.0%	4.3%	1.5%	3.7%
Switzerland	E	2	1845	4.11	15.7%	37.2%	28.3%	18.9%	52.9%	18.7%	8.8%	3.5%	1.2%	2.2%
Croatia	D	2	1838	4.34	23.7%	31.0%	26.8%	18.5%	54.7%	24.6%	10.2%	3.2%	1.1%	2.8%
Mexico	F	2	1833	3.96	14.7%	34.2%	30.3%	20.9%	48.8%	16.7%	7.6%	2.9%	1.0%	1.8%
Poland	H	1	1821	4.44	27.4%	28.8%	24.7%	19.0%	56.2%	26.0%	7.3%	2.7%	0.9%	1.8%
Denmark	C	3	1820	3.82	18.0%	26.2%	30.2%	25.7%	44.2%	19.4%	7.4%	2.2%	0.7%	2.0%
Sweden	F	3	1805	3.55	11.2%	29.1%	33.2%	26.5%	40.3%	12.3%	5.2%	1.8%	0.6%	1.2%
Iceland	D	3	1791	3.75	16.7%	26.3%	30.9%	26.2%	42.9%	16.6%	5.8%	1.5%	0.4%	1.6%
Iran	B	3	1791	3.32	10.8%	21.6%	37.9%	29.8%	32.4%	17.2%	6.4%	1.7%	0.5%	1.7%
Russia	A	1	1781	4.91	32.9%	32.0%	22.1%	13.0%	64.9%	19.2%	6.8%	1.7%	0.5%	1.8%
Serbia	E	4	1752	2.93	6.8%	22.5%	32.8%	37.9%	29.3%	7.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.6%
Senegal	H	3	1748	3.48	15.4%	22.9%	28.8%	32.9%	38.3%	13.9%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.7%
Japan	H	4	1735	3.23	13.3%	20.9%	28.4%	37.3%	34.3%	11.8%	2.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.5%
Costa Rica	E	3	1728	2.81	6.1%	20.8%	32.2%	41.0%	26.8%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%
Australia	C	4	1718	2.69	8.3%	16.4%	27.4%	47.9%	24.7%	7.5%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
South Korea	F	4	1702	2.43	4.6%	16.4%	29.0%	50.1%	20.9%	4.1%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Nigeria	D	4	1691	2.64	7.6%	16.3%	27.7%	48.4%	23.9%	6.3%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Morocco	B	4	1686	2.17	4.2%	11.4%	27.7%	56.6%	15.7%	6.2%	1.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Panama	G	4	1656	2.79	7.1%	16.8%	35.6%	40.4%	24.0%	6.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Egypt	A	3	1654	3.39	13.1%	22.5%	32.2%	32.2%	35.6%	5.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Tunisia	G	3	1619	2.53	5.5%	14.3%	33.2%	47.0%	19.8%	4.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Saudi Arabia	A	4	1596	2.71	8.2%	16.5%	28.9%	46.5%	24.6%	2.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%