UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying Simulations

Hello,

As you know, the main Euro qualification will contain 5 groups of 5 teams, and 5 groups of 6 teams. Seeding will be based only on Nations League overall rankings, therefor League A teams can only be in pots 1-2, League B teams in pots 2-3, League D teams in pot 3-4, and League D teams in pots 4-6.
Top 2 of each group will qualify to UFA EURO 2020. The nations league will determine the 4 playoff mini-tournaments. The rules for determining these playoffs are quite complicated, but the basic rule is that each league's 4 best not yet qualified teams have a spot, and that nation league group winners are guaranteed a spot in a playoff with only lower ranked teams. In total 36 teams out of the 55 will either qualify directly or play in the playoffs.
The full explanation can be found here: UNL media briefing PDF version
(this link might be disabled on November 14th, so download the file while you can)
The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.
It took me a while to implement all the specific rules, but I finally made it, and here the results of 100K simulations:

Team	League	ELO	Points	Rank 1	Rank 2	Rank 3	Rank 4	Rank 5	Rank 6	Q-normal	Q-PO	PO-Final	PO-semis	Q_Total
Germany	A	2098.00	23.42	92.5%	6.9%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	99.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	99.8%
Spain	A	2015.00	22.27	84.6%	13.1%	2.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	97.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.3%	99.2%
Portugal	A	1982.00	21.73	80.3%	16.3%	3.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	96.6%	2.0%	0.9%	0.5%	98.6%
France	A	1959.00	21.33	75.8%	19.6%	4.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	95.4%	2.6%	1.3%	0.7%	98.0%
Italy	A	1920.00	20.60	68.6%	24.2%	6.1%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	92.8%	3.5%	2.2%	1.5%	96.3%
Belgium	A	1910.00	20.46	67.4%	24.7%	6.7%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	92.1%	3.9%	2.4%	1.6%	96.0%
England	A	1909.00	20.36	66.1%	25.6%	7.0%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	91.7%	4.1%	2.5%	1.7%	95.8%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	19.25	52.6%	32.7%	11.8%	2.6%	0.2%	0.0%	85.4%	6.1%	4.7%	3.8%	91.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	19.11	51.9%	32.5%	12.5%	2.9%	0.2%	0.0%	84.4%	6.4%	5.1%	4.2%	90.7%
Poland	A	1835.00	18.84	48.0%	34.5%	13.9%	3.4%	0.3%	0.0%	82.4%	7.0%	5.7%	4.8%	89.4%
Croatia	A	1833.00	18.83	47.6%	34.8%	14.0%	3.4%	0.3%	0.0%	82.4%	7.0%	5.7%	5.0%	89.3%
Iceland	A	1822.00	18.58	45.0%	35.5%	15.2%	3.9%	0.4%	0.0%	80.5%	7.4%	6.4%	5.6%	88.0%
Denmark	B	1781.00	17.05	21.5%	44.8%	25.5%	7.4%	0.8%	0.0%	66.3%	10.8%	8.5%	13.7%	77.1%
Sweden	B	1771.00	16.84	20.0%	44.4%	26.5%	8.2%	0.9%	0.0%	64.4%	11.0%	9.1%	14.8%	75.3%
Wales	B	1751.00	16.43	17.6%	42.6%	28.7%	9.9%	1.2%	0.0%	60.2%	11.2%	10.1%	17.4%	71.4%
Republic of Ireland	B	1750.00	16.40	17.2%	42.5%	29.1%	10.0%	1.2%	0.0%	59.7%	11.4%	10.3%	17.8%	71.0%
Slovakia	B	1732.00	16.00	14.7%	40.7%	31.3%	11.6%	1.6%	0.0%	55.4%	11.6%	11.3%	20.6%	67.0%
Turkey	B	1721.00	15.77	13.4%	39.3%	32.5%	13.0%	1.9%	0.0%	52.6%	11.6%	11.7%	22.8%	64.2%
Serbia	C	1737.00	15.62	13.6%	33.8%	35.6%	15.1%	1.8%	0.0%	47.4%	15.1%	9.6%	14.9%	62.5%
Ukraine	B	1709.00	15.48	12.1%	37.8%	33.6%	14.2%	2.2%	0.0%	49.9%	11.8%	12.3%	24.5%	61.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1706.00	15.44	11.7%	37.8%	33.6%	14.4%	2.3%	0.1%	49.6%	11.6%	12.8%	24.6%	61.2%
Scotland	C	1708.00	14.99	10.5%	30.4%	37.2%	19.1%	2.7%	0.1%	40.9%	14.4%	10.7%	17.7%	55.3%
Russia	B	1680.00	14.82	9.2%	33.4%	36.7%	17.5%	3.2%	0.1%	42.6%	11.4%	13.9%	30.3%	54.0%
Austria	B	1678.00	14.82	9.1%	33.4%	36.2%	17.8%	3.4%	0.1%	42.5%	11.4%	13.7%	30.5%	53.9%
Czech Republic	B	1660.00	14.42	7.3%	30.8%	37.4%	20.3%	4.1%	0.1%	38.1%	11.0%	14.4%	34.2%	49.1%
Northern Ireland	B	1654.00	14.27	7.0%	29.7%	37.6%	20.9%	4.6%	0.1%	36.7%	10.8%	15.0%	35.2%	47.5%
Romania	C	1669.00	14.12	7.0%	25.3%	38.0%	25.0%	4.5%	0.1%	32.3%	12.8%	11.0%	20.7%	45.1%
Greece	C	1647.00	13.65	5.5%	22.1%	37.8%	28.8%	5.6%	0.2%	27.6%	11.0%	10.9%	22.1%	38.6%
Slovenia	C	1618.00	12.96	4.1%	18.1%	36.4%	33.3%	7.8%	0.3%	22.2%	10.0%	10.6%	23.7%	32.2%
Belarus	D	1489.00	9.22	0.5%	4.4%	14.8%	36.6%	40.8%	2.9%	4.9%	21.4%	16.3%	23.0%	26.3%
Hungary	C	1593.00	12.40	2.9%	15.1%	34.0%	37.6%	10.0%	0.4%	18.0%	8.3%	10.3%	24.5%	26.3%
Macedonia	D	1484.00	9.14	0.4%	4.1%	14.4%	36.1%	41.9%	3.0%	4.6%	20.8%	15.9%	23.5%	25.4%
Bulgaria	C	1590.00	12.29	2.7%	14.5%	33.2%	38.6%	10.5%	0.4%	17.2%	7.3%	8.6%	22.1%	24.5%
Montenegro	C	1590.00	12.29	2.7%	14.5%	33.1%	38.8%	10.4%	0.5%	17.2%	7.1%	8.7%	21.5%	24.3%
Norway	C	1578.00	12.02	2.2%	13.2%	32.6%	39.8%	11.8%	0.5%	15.4%	7.4%	9.6%	24.1%	22.8%
Albania	C	1573.00	11.94	2.3%	12.7%	31.9%	40.5%	12.1%	0.6%	14.9%	7.1%	9.3%	24.4%	22.1%
Georgia	D	1457.00	8.55	0.3%	2.8%	11.5%	33.7%	47.6%	4.1%	3.1%	17.2%	15.2%	24.0%	20.3%
Finland	C	1567.00	11.78	2.0%	11.8%	31.0%	41.8%	12.8%	0.6%	13.7%	6.1%	8.0%	21.7%	19.8%
Armenia	D	1439.00	8.17	0.2%	2.2%	9.7%	30.5%	52.3%	5.1%	2.4%	11.2%	10.2%	17.2%	13.6%
Israel	C	1514.00	10.61	1.0%	7.0%	24.0%	47.2%	19.6%	1.3%	7.9%	3.6%	6.1%	19.7%	11.6%
Azerbaijan	D	1382.00	7.10	0.1%	1.0%	5.5%	24.9%	60.6%	7.9%	1.0%	10.0%	12.1%	26.6%	11.0%
Estonia	C	1476.00	9.78	0.4%	4.4%	18.7%	49.1%	25.4%	1.9%	4.9%	1.7%	3.4%	12.7%	6.6%
Latvia	D	1355.00	6.62	0.0%	0.6%	4.1%	20.8%	62.9%	11.6%	0.6%	5.4%	7.2%	16.0%	6.0%
Kosovo	D	1351.00	6.65	0.0%	0.5%	3.7%	18.9%	60.3%	16.6%	0.6%	3.6%	4.8%	13.6%	4.1%
Kazakhstan	D	1320.00	6.09	0.0%	0.4%	2.5%	16.3%	63.7%	17.0%	0.4%	3.0%	4.6%	12.0%	3.3%
Moldova	D	1310.00	5.91	0.0%	0.3%	2.4%	15.1%	63.8%	18.4%	0.3%	2.7%	4.3%	11.7%	3.0%
Luxembourg	D	1285.00	5.52	0.0%	0.2%	1.6%	13.1%	64.8%	20.2%	0.2%	2.4%	4.1%	12.2%	2.5%
Cyprus	C	1399.00	8.25	0.1%	1.6%	10.2%	46.6%	37.3%	4.2%	1.7%	0.5%	1.5%	7.5%	2.3%
Lithuania	C	1385.00	8.01	0.1%	1.4%	8.9%	45.7%	39.4%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%	1.2%	6.6%	1.9%
Faroe Islands	D	1258.00	5.13	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	10.5%	63.8%	24.3%	0.1%	1.6%	3.3%	10.3%	1.7%
Malta	D	1204.00	4.42	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	6.2%	55.6%	37.7%	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	5.8%	0.6%
Liechtenstein	D	1128.00	3.52	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	2.7%	42.5%	54.6%	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	2.7%	0.2%
Gibraltar	D	1049.00	2.77	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	20.7%	78.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%
Andorra	D	993.00	2.30	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	14.1%	85.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
San Marino	D	835.00	1.39	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	96.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

We can see very clearly that Nation League D teams have a huge advantage in qualifying to Euro 2020. 

Interesting to note that in 99.85% of the simulations, all League A teams qualifies at least for the playoffs. It also happened for League B teams in 87% of the simulations.

* I did neglect the rule that Nations League final four teams will play in a 5 teams group, as it is unlikely to change anything, but Ukraine-Russia and Armenia-Azerbaijan constrains are taken into account during draws.

UEFA Nations League 2018-19 simulations - All Leagues

Hello,

In today' post I'll present the simulations for all leagues in UEFA Nations League. As always, the simulations are based on

The simulations are based on World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here: Football Club Elo Ratings.

Please notice that group size varies between 3 and 4 teams.
So without further ado, here are the results of 100K simulations:

Team	League	ELO	Avg_Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Relegation	Overall_Avg
Germany	A	2098.00	6.494	70.5%	22.1%	7.3%		7.3%	3.50
Spain	A	2015.00	5.4954	56.1%	29.5%	14.4%		14.4%	4.61
Portugal	A	1982.00	5.0926	50.2%	31.6%	18.2%		18.2%	5.08
France	A	1959.00	4.37768	36.5%	38.7%	24.7%		24.7%	5.96
Belgium	A	1910.00	4.32908	38.5%	34.3%	27.1%		27.1%	6.03
Italy	A	1920.00	3.9676	30.6%	39.0%	30.4%		30.4%	6.49
England	A	1909.00	3.8678	29.0%	39.1%	31.9%		31.9%	6.64
Switzerland	A	1845.00	3.24604	20.8%	37.7%	41.6%		41.6%	7.48
Netherlands	A	1854.00	2.98684	18.9%	33.0%	48.1%		48.1%	7.82
Poland	A	1835.00	2.81508	16.9%	32.0%	51.1%		51.1%	8.06
Croatia	A	1833.00	2.78628	16.5%	32.0%	51.5%		51.5%	8.09
Iceland	A	1822.00	2.68508	15.4%	31.1%	53.5%		53.5%	8.24
Sweden	B	1771.00	4.62488	43.0%	33.0%	24.0%		24.0%	17.62
Denmark	B	1781.00	4.5556	42.5%	32.6%	24.9%		24.9%	17.70
Republic of Ireland	B	1750.00	4.4206	40.0%	33.5%	26.5%		26.5%	17.89
Wales	B	1751.00	4.30544	38.3%	33.6%	28.1%		28.1%	18.03
Slovakia	B	1732.00	4.10984	35.2%	33.7%	31.0%		31.0%	18.30
Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1706.00	3.98356	33.5%	33.7%	32.8%		32.8%	18.47
Turkey	B	1721.00	3.9436	32.9%	34.0%	33.1%		33.1%	18.52
Ukraine	B	1709.00	3.91224	32.3%	34.0%	33.7%		33.7%	18.56
Austria	B	1678.00	3.56984	27.3%	33.6%	39.1%		39.1%	19.05
Russia	B	1680.00	3.54036	26.8%	33.3%	39.8%		39.8%	19.09
Czech Republic	B	1660.00	3.34924	24.3%	32.6%	43.1%		43.1%	19.37
Northern Ireland	B	1654.00	3.31292	23.8%	32.5%	43.7%		43.7%	19.41
Serbia	C	1737.00	7.169745	54.9%	29.0%	13.6%	2.5%	5.1%	28.81
Scotland	C	1708.00	6.7837	50.5%	30.3%	15.7%	3.5%	6.5%	29.20
Romania	C	1669.00	6.20818	43.2%	31.7%	19.8%	5.2%	9.3%	29.85
Greece	C	1647.00	5.79249	38.0%	32.2%	23.0%	6.9%	11.8%	30.34
Slovenia	C	1618.00	5.44819	34.0%	32.2%	25.2%	8.5%	14.2%	30.74
Hungary	C	1593.00	5.10796	30.1%	31.6%	27.8%	10.4%	16.9%	31.16
Norway	C	1578.00	4.805295	26.4%	31.3%	30.3%	12.0%	19.2%	31.55
Albania	C	1573.00	4.74408	25.8%	31.3%	30.4%	12.5%	19.9%	31.63
Montenegro	C	1590.00	4.58634	24.1%	30.5%	33.5%	12.0%	20.7%	31.80
Bulgaria	C	1590.00	4.573855	23.8%	30.9%	33.5%	11.9%	20.6%	31.81
Finland	C	1567.00	4.264645	20.7%	29.4%	35.7%	14.2%	24.0%	32.22
Israel	C	1514.00	3.557895	14.3%	25.5%	40.0%	20.2%	32.7%	33.16
Estonia	C	1476.00	2.88114	8.0%	16.0%	27.3%	48.7%	55.1%	34.96
Cyprus	C	1399.00	1.92414	3.4%	9.5%	22.6%	64.5%	70.9%	36.29
Lithuania	C	1385.00	1.76334	2.9%	8.6%	21.6%	66.9%	73.2%	36.49
Belarus	D	1489.00	10.02402	63.2%	25.9%	9.3%	1.6%		43.14
Macedonia	D	1484.00	9.93144	62.1%	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%		43.22
Georgia	D	1457.00	9.52662	57.3%	28.6%	11.8%	2.4%		43.61
Azerbaijan	D	1382.00	8.6301	48.6%	30.1%	16.7%	4.5%		44.49
Armenia	D	1439.00	8.55948	38.0%	40.6%	17.8%	3.6%		44.69
Latvia	D	1355.00	7.46196	27.9%	39.3%	25.7%	7.1%		45.86
Luxembourg	D	1285.00	6.41682	17.9%	37.0%	33.1%	12.1%		47.03
Kazakhstan	D	1320.00	6.40548	19.0%	31.8%	37.2%	12.0%		47.08
Moldova	D	1310.00	6.26196	17.9%	31.1%	38.3%	12.7%		47.24
Kosovo	D	1351.00	5.88408	21.8%	29.4%	29.0%	19.8%		47.50
Faroe Islands	D	1258.00	5.98152	14.5%	34.9%	36.0%	14.6%		47.51
Malta	D	1204.00	4.67334	7.3%	21.7%	46.9%	24.1%		49.04
Liechtenstein	D	1128.00	3.57048	3.2%	14.4%	47.9%	34.5%		50.21
Gibraltar	D	1049.00	1.6299	0.9%	5.4%	20.6%	73.0%		52.29
Andorra	D	993.00	1.10334	0.4%	2.9%	15.3%	81.4%		52.92
San Marino	D	835.00	0.2949	0.0%	0.4%	4.7%	94.9%		54.17

In League B all teams seem very close to each other with having between 23.8% to 43% of 1st position in their group, hence promotion to League A. They also have between 24% to 43.7% of relegating to group C. What it means is either we don't have enough data on these teams to differentiate between them, or their level is really that close, and having only 4 matches per teams makes the final position comes down to luck (or a combination of the two).
The overall rankings will determine the spots for Euro 2020 PO  (among other criteria, I'll talk about it on the next post of Euro 2020 Qualifying simulations.

UEFA Nations League 2018–19 Simulations - League A

Hi guys,

It has been forever since I've posted simulations here.
Thank to other great members of the community for posting their own simulations on other sites!
For those of you who don't know, the UEFA Nations League is a new bi-annual tournament that is divided into 4 leagues. Each League is composed of groups with 3-4 teams, with relegation and promotion between the leagues.
The first edition of League A got great line up:
Pot 1: Spain, Belgium, Germany, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Poland, Switzerland, France
Pot 3: Iceland, England, Netherlands, Croatia

The 4 group winner would play in a one-leg semi final and final matches to determine the first UEFA Nations League Winner.

For more information see:

UEFA Nations League: all you need to know

And now, for the reason we all got here, the simulations. The simulations are based on
World Football Elo Ratings and are done by Poisson simulation system described here:

Football Club Elo Ratings

I'll start with league A:

Team	League	ELO	Relegation	Final Four	winner
Germany	A	2098.00	7.2%	70.5%	31.5%
Spain	A	2015.00	14.6%	56.1%	16.8%
Portugal	A	1982.00	18.2%	50.0%	12.9%
France	A	1959.00	24.8%	36.5%	8.9%
Belgium	A	1910.00	27.3%	38.5%	6.9%
Italy	A	1920.00	30.1%	30.8%	6.1%
England	A	1909.00	31.8%	29.1%	5.5%
Switzerland	A	1845.00	41.2%	21.0%	2.8%
Netherlands	A	1854.00	48.1%	18.8%	2.7%
Poland	A	1835.00	51.4%	16.8%	2.2%
Croatia	A	1833.00	51.6%	16.6%	2.1%
Iceland	A	1822.00	53.7%	15.4%	1.8%

The system of play gives a significant advantage for better teams, a lot more than UEFA EURO or the FIFA World Cup, and this is because the knockout phase start from the semi finals, and not the round of 16.

As you can see, Germany has the most chances of winning with 31.5%, but is not safe from relegation at all with 7.2% of playing in League B in 2020-1, next one is Spain with 14.6%!

I assume UEFA has done these calculations, and I wonder how could they risk having a powerhouse relegating and damaging their own product somewhat.

I believe relegating 4 teams out of 12 (and after only 4 matches played) is way too much, but the schedule is already crowded with the main tournaments qualification, and UEFA wanted the Nations League to become a part of Euro 2020 Qualifying, which adds more matches by having playoffs, so I guess UEFA settled for it.

FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations - INCLUDING PLAYOFFS

I was requested by greenbay on Bert Kassies' European Football site to simulate the playoff matches as well, and calculate the odds of qualifying.
I made a little approximation there and used the projected October 2013 FIFA Rankings here:
http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/03/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-based-on.html
(for the rest of the teams I just took their current FIFA Rankings, though they are unlikely to be seeded anyway...)
Despite only about 63% of winning their group, Spain has nearly 97% chance of qualifying.
Here are the full results:

Group	Team	ELO	Qualifing	Points	Group Winner	Worst RU	PO Winner	PO loser
4	Netherlands	1968	99.33%	26.96	97.67%	0.00%	1.66%	0.50%
3	Germany	2036	98.31%	25.48	91.16%	0.00%	7.14%	1.14%
6	Russia	1864	97.88%	25.71	94.70%	0.04%	3.18%	1.88%
9	Spain	2113	96.89%	17.89	63.08%	0.10%	33.81%	2.78%
5	Switzerland	1789	92.32%	21.74	87.62%	0.94%	4.69%	4.24%
2	Italy	1894	91.04%	22.72	81.70%	0.75%	9.34%	4.13%
8	England	1934	87.65%	22.19	74.41%	0.65%	13.24%	4.78%
1	Croatia	1875	84.09%	22.64	53.65%	1.54%	30.44%	13.42%
7	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1762	80.98%	23.46	70.29%	0.56%	10.69%	17.45%
1	Belgium	1781	74.79%	22.00	46.21%	1.36%	28.58%	22.65%
9	France	1858	72.37%	17.33	36.86%	0.94%	35.51%	25.43%
7	Greece	1769	65.85%	22.15	29.34%	1.14%	36.51%	31.07%
6	Portugal	1854	54.72%	19.61	5.07%	9.34%	49.65%	25.32%
3	Sweden	1856	45.47%	20.25	7.79%	2.55%	37.68%	24.66%
2	Denmark	1782	34.01%	18.21	14.22%	10.17%	19.80%	26.85%
8	Montenegro	1649	27.04%	19.31	17.61%	3.94%	9.43%	27.13%
4	Romania	1720	23.99%	19.29	1.80%	4.55%	22.18%	36.20%
8	Ukraine	1739	17.35%	17.79	6.82%	2.62%	10.53%	18.55%
5	Norway	1683	14.46%	16.09	6.76%	18.22%	7.71%	17.97%
3	Republic of Ireland	1724	8.75%	17.78	1.03%	2.09%	7.72%	14.26%
4	Hungary	1657	6.94%	17.41	0.51%	5.13%	6.44%	18.26%
2	Bulgaria	1633	5.08%	15.20	2.33%	6.19%	2.76%	8.81%
5	Iceland	1483	4.66%	15.14	2.87%	6.03%	1.80%	17.67%
2	Czech Republic	1716	4.14%	14.41	1.69%	3.40%	2.45%	4.04%
5	Albania	1496	3.91%	14.40	2.70%	7.77%	1.21%	10.33%
8	Poland	1650	3.08%	15.47	1.16%	1.41%	1.92%	5.80%
6	Israel	1611	1.77%	15.06	0.24%	3.46%	1.53%	5.26%
4	Turkey	1661	0.99%	13.97	0.02%	1.30%	0.97%	2.76%
7	Slovakia	1560	0.59%	13.67	0.35%	0.42%	0.24%	1.41%
3	Austria	1575	0.45%	12.63	0.02%	0.56%	0.43%	1.77%
1	Wales	1588	0.27%	12.19	0.11%	0.39%	0.16%	0.61%
1	Serbia	1656	0.22%	11.01	0.04%	0.11%	0.18%	0.44%
9	Finland	1619	0.20%	7.34	0.03%	0.09%	0.17%	0.56%
2	Armenia	1497	0.12%	10.01	0.07%	0.85%	0.06%	0.42%
9	Belarus	1559	0.12%	7.62	0.03%	0.07%	0.09%	0.45%
5	Slovenia	1527	0.07%	9.02	0.04%	0.84%	0.03%	0.18%
7	Lithuania	1453	0.06%	11.83	0.03%	0.15%	0.03%	0.26%
5	Cyprus	1401	0.03%	8.29	0.01%	0.16%	0.01%	0.22%
6	Northern Ireland	1409	0.02%	8.65	0.00%	0.06%	0.01%	0.18%
1	Macedonia	1508	0.01%	8.91	0.00%	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%
7	Latvia	1472	0.00%	9.62	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.05%
1	Scotland	1603	0.00%	6.79	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.02%
6	Azerbaijan	1387	0.00%	8.54	0.00%	0.04%	0.00%	0.06%
4	Estonia	1466	0.00%	8.48	0.00%	0.02%	0.00%	0.02%
8	Moldova	1353	0.00%	8.38	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Kazakhstan	1328	0.00%	5.13	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	Georgia	1489	0.00%	4.67	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Luxembourg	1136	0.00%	3.70	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Faroe Islands	1186	0.00%	3.01	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Liechtenstein	1163	0.00%	2.46	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Malta	1213	0.00%	2.10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Andorra	968	0.00%	0.55	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	San Marino	860	0.00%	0.52	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

FIFA World Cup 2014 European Qualifying Simulations - Update 24.3.2013

What an annoying result for me as an Israeli this weekend.
We played really well against Portugal, but very strange late goal means that realistically, we are of the competition.
Anyway, here are the new simulations after the latest results:

Spain are still favorites to win their group despite the draw against Finland.
Norway are favorites to finish as the worst RU again...

Group	Team	ELO	Points	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Worst RU
1	Croatia	1875	22.64	53.65%	45.40%	0.90%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%	1.54%
1	Belgium	1781	22.00	46.21%	52.60%	1.11%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	1.36%
1	Wales	1588	12.19	0.11%	1.16%	45.83%	30.41%	17.66%	4.83%	0.39%
1	Serbia	1656	11.01	0.04%	0.73%	35.92%	36.62%	19.18%	7.52%	0.11%
1	Macedonia	1508	8.91	0.00%	0.09%	12.98%	22.43%	36.73%	27.77%	0.03%
1	Scotland	1603	6.79	0.00%	0.03%	3.26%	10.41%	26.43%	59.88%	0.01%
2	Italy	1894	22.72	81.70%	14.22%	3.37%	0.68%	0.03%	0.00%	0.75%
2	Denmark	1782	18.21	14.22%	56.82%	20.83%	6.97%	1.17%	0.00%	10.17%
2	Bulgaria	1633	15.20	2.33%	17.76%	40.61%	33.64%	5.66%	0.00%	6.19%
2	Czech Republic	1716	14.41	1.69%	9.88%	30.40%	43.50%	14.45%	0.08%	3.40%
2	Armenia	1497	10.01	0.07%	1.33%	4.79%	15.18%	77.12%	1.52%	0.85%
2	Malta	1213	2.10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%	1.57%	98.39%	0.00%
3	Germany	2036	25.48	91.16%	8.28%	0.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Sweden	1856	20.25	7.79%	64.89%	24.32%	3.01%	0.00%	0.00%	2.55%
3	Republic of Ireland	1724	17.78	1.03%	24.07%	61.32%	13.55%	0.03%	0.00%	2.09%
3	Austria	1575	12.63	0.02%	2.76%	13.81%	82.47%	0.94%	0.00%	0.56%
3	Kazakhstan	1328	5.13	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.60%	74.75%	24.66%	0.00%
3	Faroe Islands	1186	3.01	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.37%	24.28%	75.35%	0.00%
4	Netherlands	1968	26.96	97.67%	2.16%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Romania	1720	19.29	1.80%	62.93%	28.09%	7.05%	0.13%	0.00%	4.55%
4	Hungary	1657	17.41	0.51%	29.83%	53.37%	16.07%	0.22%	0.00%	5.13%
4	Turkey	1661	13.97	0.02%	5.03%	17.95%	71.46%	5.54%	0.00%	1.30%
4	Estonia	1466	8.48	0.00%	0.04%	0.43%	5.42%	93.95%	0.16%	0.02%
4	Andorra	968	0.55	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.16%	99.84%	0.00%
5	Switzerland	1789	21.74	87.62%	9.88%	2.09%	0.38%	0.03%	0.00%	0.94%
5	Norway	1683	16.09	6.76%	43.89%	28.76%	16.43%	3.60%	0.56%	18.22%
5	Iceland	1483	15.14	2.87%	25.49%	34.98%	27.96%	7.45%	1.25%	6.03%
5	Albania	1496	14.40	2.70%	19.31%	28.44%	36.60%	11.11%	1.84%	7.77%
5	Slovenia	1527	9.02	0.04%	1.05%	3.96%	11.80%	44.23%	38.92%	0.84%
5	Cyprus	1401	8.29	0.01%	0.40%	1.77%	6.83%	33.57%	57.43%	0.16%
6	Russia	1864	25.71	94.70%	5.10%	0.21%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%
6	Portugal	1854	19.61	5.07%	84.31%	10.36%	0.25%	0.02%	0.00%	9.34%
6	Israel	1611	15.06	0.24%	10.25%	79.86%	8.32%	1.33%	0.00%	3.46%
6	Northern Ireland	1409	8.65	0.00%	0.25%	6.26%	43.54%	42.65%	7.31%	0.06%
6	Azerbaijan	1387	8.54	0.00%	0.10%	3.31%	46.10%	45.37%	5.13%	0.04%
6	Luxembourg	1136	3.70	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.79%	10.64%	87.57%	0.00%
7	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1762	23.46	70.29%	28.70%	0.94%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.56%
7	Greece	1769	22.15	29.34%	68.73%	1.77%	0.17%	0.01%	0.00%	1.14%
7	Slovakia	1560	13.67	0.35%	2.07%	58.21%	31.77%	7.60%	0.01%	0.42%
7	Lithuania	1453	11.83	0.03%	0.44%	26.72%	44.26%	28.22%	0.33%	0.15%
7	Latvia	1472	9.62	0.00%	0.07%	12.36%	23.70%	63.23%	0.65%	0.01%
7	Liechtenstein	1163	2.46	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.04%	0.94%	99.02%	0.00%
8	England	1934	22.19	74.41%	18.67%	5.83%	1.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.65%
8	Montenegro	1649	19.31	17.61%	40.50%	30.16%	11.70%	0.04%	0.00%	3.94%
8	Ukraine	1739	17.79	6.82%	31.70%	39.92%	21.27%	0.29%	0.00%	2.62%
8	Poland	1650	15.47	1.16%	9.13%	24.00%	64.02%	1.70%	0.00%	1.41%
8	Moldova	1353	8.38	0.00%	0.01%	0.09%	1.93%	97.88%	0.09%	0.01%
8	San Marino	860	0.52	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	99.91%	0.00%
9	Spain	2113	17.89	63.08%	36.68%	0.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%
9	France	1858	17.33	36.86%	61.88%	1.24%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.94%
9	Finland	1619	7.34	0.03%	0.83%	45.27%	35.10%	18.77%	0.00%	0.09%
9	Belarus	1559	7.62	0.03%	0.61%	43.16%	36.59%	19.61%	0.00%	0.07%
9	Georgia	1489	4.67	0.00%	0.01%	10.09%	28.28%	61.63%	0.00%	0.00%