יום שני, 14 במרץ 2011

New rankings concept - set importance

Today I thought how can I improve my rankings.
I thought of the concept of set importance. I defined it as the difference between the probability of winning and losing assuming the match equal skill.
For example, in a best of 3 match, the first set worth 0.5, because assuming equal skill, the probability of winning after 1:0 is 3/4 the probability of winning after 0:1 is 1/4.
So a 2:1 win factored score is 1.5:0.5 and scaling the sum to 3 make the score of the winner 9/4 and the score of the loser 3/4.
Please notice it is still always better to win any set rather than losing.
The changes aren't dramatic but the winner gets an extra bonus compared to the previous rankings.
I also set the number of the leader's points to 12450, as those were Nadal's points in the real ATP rankings.

My next post will be an all time rankings up to 2010.

Here are the updated and final ranking for 2010:
 
Rankings Name Ratings Country ATP Rankings ATP points My Previous Rankings up/down
1 Rafael Nadal 12450.00 ESP 1 12450 1 0
2 Roger Federer 9815.72 SUI 2 9145 2 0
3 Novak Djokovic 6008.13 SRB 3 6240 3 0
4 Andy Murray 5779.77 GBR 4 5760 4 0
5 Robin Soderling 4896.52 SWE 5 5580 5 0
6 David Nalbandian 4098.97 ARG 27 1480 7 1
7 David Ferrer 3830.73 ESP 7 3735 6 -1
8 Tomas Berdych 3662.20 CZE 6 3955 8 0
9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3560.21 FRA 13 2345 11 2
10 Stanislas Wawrinka 3458.14 SUI 21 1755 9 -1
11 Andy Roddick 3366.44 USA 8 3665 10 -1
12 Mikhail Youzhny 3067.65 RUS 10 2920 12 0
13 Fernando Verdasco 2756.79 ESP 9 3240 16 3
14 Jurgen Melzer 2722.82 AUT 11 2785 14 0
15 Gael Monfils 2657.01 FRA 12 2560 15 0
16 Lleyton Hewitt 2576.42 AUS 54 870 13 -3
17 Mardy Fish 2547.31 USA 16 1991 17 0
18 Ivo Karlovic 2484.33 CRO 73 670 20 2
19 Nikolay Davydenko 2376.10 RUS 22 1655 19 0
20 Marin Cilic 2315.91 CRO 14 2300 21 1
21 Richard Gasquet 2314.67 FRA 30 1385 18 -3
22 Nicolas Almagro 2314.00 ESP 15 2160 22 0
23 Philipp Kohlschreiber 2108.75 GER 34 1215 23 0
24 Marcos Baghdatis 2052.88 CYP 20 1785 25 1
25 Viktor Troicki 2023.73 SRB 28 1430 24 -1
26 Ernests Gulbis 2011.85 LAT 24 1505 26 0
27 John Isner 2010.69 USA 19 1850 28 1
28 Florian Mayer 1947.48 GER 37 1128 31 3
29 Samuel Querrey 1880.94 USA 18 1860 29 0
30 Juan Carlos Ferrero 1856.69 ESP 29 1415 27 -3
31 Gilles Simon 1818.92 FRA 41 1005 35 4
32 Ivan Ljubicic 1795.13 CRO 17 1965 32 0
33 Albert Montanes 1787.43 ESP 25 1495 33 0
34 Michael Llodra 1778.50 FRA 23 1575 30 -4
35 Julien Benneteau 1736.00 FRA 44 965 34 -1
36 Denis Istomin 1604.89 UZB 40 1031 37 1
37 Thomaz Bellucci 1599.62 BRA 31 1355 36 -1
38 Juan Monaco 1569.12 ARG 26 1480 44 6
39 Feliciano Lopez 1564.51 ESP 32 1300 42 3
40 Fernando Gonzalez 1542.94 CHI 68 720 39 -1
41 Janko Tipsarevic 1509.45 SRB 49 935 38 -3
42 Radek Stepanek 1470.46 CZE 62 795 40 -2
43 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1465.63 ESP 33 1275 43 0
44 Jeremy Chardy 1450.97 FRA 45 960 45 1
45 Thiemo de Bakker 1446.47 NED 43 975 46 1
46 Alexander Dolgopolov 1385.49 UKR 48 940 41 -5
47 Philipp Petzschner 1334.44 GER 57 839 47 0
48 Juan Ignacio Chela 1293.67 ARG 38 1070 48 0
49 Florent Serra 1274.99 FRA 69 715 54 5
50 Jarkko Nieminen 1253.33 FIN 39 1062 49 -1
51 Kei Nishikori 1241.22 JPN 98 554 67 16
52 Andrei Goloubev 1239.37 KAZ 36 1135 52 0
53 Victor Hanescu 1233.42 ROU 51 915 50 -3
54 Mikhail Kukushkin 1216.85 KAZ 59 819 53 -1
55 Xavier Malisse 1207.28 BEL 60 816 57 2
56 Richard Berankis 1203.91 LTU 87 587 58 2
57 Kevin Anderson 1192.44 RSA 61 813 51 -6
58 Yen-Hsun Lu 1180.80 TPE 35 1141 55 -3
59 Alejandro Falla 1176.33 COL 105 540 56 -3
60 James Blake 1172.26 USA 135 405 60 0
61 Paul-Henri Mathieu 1127.10 FRA 97 562 68 7
62 Daniel Gimeno 1125.16 ESP 56 844 72 10
63 Benjamin Becker 1120.88 GER 53 877 59 -4
64 Robin Haase 1116.40 NED 65 778 63 -1
65 Marcel Granollers 1113.32 ESP 42 993 70 5
66 Taylor Dent 1111.81 USA 118 480 61 -5
67 Andreas Seppi 1083.30 ITA 52 900 66 -1
68 Evgueni Korolev 1074.39 KAZ 140 390 69 1
69 Tommy Robredo 1054.51 ESP 50 915 64 -5
70 Santiago Giraldo 1052.87 COL 64 785 62 -8
71 Wayne Odesnik 1040.14 #N/A #N/A #N/A 71 0
72 Potito Starace 1029.33 ITA 47 945 73 1
73 Lukas Lacko 1022.62 SVK 89 578 74 1
74 Nicolas Mahut 984.67 FRA 132 424 76 2
75 Tobias Kamke 969.81 GER 67 724 88 13
76 Igor Andreev 963.77 RUS 79 622 82 6
77 Pablo Cuevas 962.90 URU 63 790 80 3
78 Leonardo Mayer 960.83 ARG 94 572 79 1
79 Michael Berrer 946.35 GER 58 835 77 -2
80 Robby Ginepri 944.71 USA 144 379 81 1
81 Fabio Fognini 937.09 ITA 55 855 89 8
82 Arnaud Clement 920.50 FRA 78 627 86 4
83 Teimuraz Gabashvili 917.47 RUS 80 615 75 -8
84 Dudi Sela 913.19 ISR 75 643 84 0
85 Rik de Voest 912.25 RSA 181 293 83 -2
86 Rainer Schuettler 910.66 GER 84 597 78 -8
87 Robert Kendrick 907.69 USA 115 486 90 3
88 Steve Darcis 905.01 BEL 109 521 65 -23
89 Sergey Stakhovsky 902.47 UKR 46 945 97 8
90 Adrian Mannarino 874.45 FRA 83 600 91 1
91 Ivan Dodig 859.30 CRO 88 586 102 11
92 Olivier Rochus 841.47 BEL 113 515 85 -7
93 Julian Reister 838.13 GER 114 504 94 1
94 Stephane Robert 837.08 FRA 122 460 92 -2
95 Grigor Dimitrov 834.38 BUL 106 536 100 5
96 Pablo Andujar 832.74 ESP 71 683 101 5
97 Daniel Brands 828.70 GER 104 541 98 1
98 Carlos Berlocq 808.32 ARG 66 725 103 5
99 Jan Hajek 804.62 CZE 95 570 95 -4
100 Ilia Marchenko 777.59 UKR 81 613 96 -4
101 Dmitry Tursunov 774.94 RUS 197 263 104 3
102 Bernard Tomic 766.78 AUS 208 239 99 -3
103 Ryan Sweeting 750.51 USA 116 486 93 -10
104 Stefan Koubek 747.02 AUT 131 425 107 3
105 Ricardo Mello 746.62 BRA 76 642 111 6
106 Stephane Bohli 745.45 SUI 136 402 87 -19
107 Brian Dabul 742.21 ARG 85 594 112 5
108 Eduardo Schwank 734.06 ARG 74 655 110 2
109 Lukasz Kubot 718.98 POL 70 695 105 -4
110 Rui Machado 717.07 POR 93 573 106 -4
111 Lamine Ouahab 716.23 ALG 254 185 123 12
112 Grega Zemlja 712.53 SLO 142 384 109 -3
113 Filippo Volandri 698.70 ITA 91 574 108 -5
114 Andreas Haider-Maurer 695.29 AUT 119 476 125 11
115 Carsten Ball 692.62 AUS 153 364 116 1
116 Pere Riba 684.45 ESP 72 672 113 -3
117 Denis Gremelmayr 669.40 GER 121 469 118 1
118 Marco Chiudinelli 667.60 SUI 117 485 128 10
119 Andreas Beck 667.51 GER 154 347 114 -5
120 Frank Dancevic 656.19 CAN 269 172 122 2
121 Frederico Gil 642.57 POR 101 551 133 12
122 Ilija Bozoljac 637.70 SRB 149 371 119 -3
123 Maximo Gonzalez 635.87 ARG 141 389 130 7
124 Gilles Muller 633.54 LUX 134 406 142 18
125 Edouard Roger-Vasselin 632.94 FRA 124 456 126 1
126 Marsel Ilhan 622.20 TUR 90 574 117 -9
127 Blaz Kavcic 621.89 SLO 112 516 134 7
128 Jerzy Janowicz 617.18 POL 161 334 129 1
129 Simone Bolelli 615.53 ITA 107 532 124 -5
130 Benoit Paire 614.70 FRA 152 366 140 10
131 Michael Russell 614.66 USA 99 552 137 6
132 Yuri Schukin 612.52 KAZ 125 438 158 26
133 Igor Sijsling 604.92 NED 126 436 131 -2
134 Matthias Bachinger 597.58 GER 187 282 115 -19
135 Marinko Matosevic 595.86 AUS 138 398 127 -8
136 Ryan Harrison 593.91 USA 173 309 151 15
137 Raven Klaasen 589.80 RSA 303 148 138 1
138 Bobby Reynolds 585.85 USA 163 333 120 -18
139 Marc Gicquel 584.91 FRA 151 368 147 8
140 Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo 583.30 ESP 77 638 136 -4
141 Milos Raonic 582.01 CAN 156 345 135 -6
142 Donald Young 578.69 USA 127 435 145 3
143 Daniel Munoz de la Nava 564.15 ESP 147 372 139 -4
144 Jaroslav Pospisil 563.55 CZE 139 395 175 31
145 Peter Luczak 555.88 AUS 137 400 132 -13
146 Bjorn Phau 551.60 GER 102 551 143 -3
147 Jesse Huta Galung 549.76 NED 128 433 161 14
148 Igor Kunitsyn 547.51 RUS 100 551 149 1
149 Somdev K. Dev Varman 537.74 IND 108 526 146 -3
150 Ivo Minar 533.84 CZE 167 325 141 -9
151 Simon Greul 529.57 GER 130 428 157 6
152 dummy 527.98 #N/A #N/A #N/A 154 2
153 Go Soeda 525.72 JPN 120 469 165 12
154 James Ward 522.89 GBR 201 253 155 1
155 Michal Przysiezny 522.75 POL 86 590 164 9
156 Dustin Brown 522.05 GER 92 573 163 7
157 Martin Fischer 516.75 AUT 133 407 166 9
158 Albert Ramos 513.03 ESP 123 458 162 4
159 Lukas Rosol 506.42 CZE 164 328 159 0
160 Horacio Zeballos 504.62 ARG 110 517 172 12
161 Conor Niland 498.64 IRL 129 433 173 12
162 Matt Ebden 497.79 AUS 196 263 168 6
163 Thiago Alves 493.76 BRA 150 369 176 13
164 Juan Sebastian Cabal 491.82 COL 192 277 177 13
165 Eric Prodon 491.64 FRA 145 379 156 -9
166 Diego Junqueira 490.99 ARG 148 372 153 -13
167 Tim Smyczek 489.71 USA 171 313 144 -23
168 Michael Zverev 489.62 GER 82 611 174 6
169 Ramon Delgado 484.98 PAR 194 276 169 0
170 Louk Sorensen 484.39 IRL 341 127 170 0
171 Franco Skugor 477.24 CRO 182 289 160 -11
172 Nick Lindahl 476.25 SWE 240 197 121 -51
173 Ruben Bemelmans 469.13 BEL 178 300 152 -21
174 Brendan Evans 460.78 USA 365 112 192 18
175 Nicolas Lapentti 458.96 ECU 447 77 148 -27
176 Joao Souza 455.24 BRA 111 517 182 6
177 Andrea Stoppini 452.06 ITA 394 103 183 6
178 Guillaume Rufin 449.31 FRA 203 245 178 0
179 Victor Crivoi 448.88 ROU 176 304 171 -8
180 Robert Farah 446.04 COL 189 279 187 7
181 Marcos Daniel 443.24 BRA 96 564 186 5
182 Andrey Kuznetsov 437.69 RUS 231 208 167 -15
183 Josselyn Ouanna 437.50 FRA 157 340 193 10
184 Antonio Veic 434.92 CRO 191 277 205 21
185 Farrukh Dustov 434.09 UZB 302 148 206 21
186 Santiago Ventura 432.21 ESP 227 215 196 10
187 Karol Beck 432.10 SVK 103 549 190 3
188 Guillermo Alcaide 431.38 ESP 200 255 208 20
189 Martin Klizan 428.05 SVK 155 346 202 13
190 Alexander Peya 427.72 AUT 216 228 180 -10
191 David Goffin 427.65 BEL 229 210 179 -12
192 Ilya Belyaev 426.20 RUS 298 149 150 -42
193 Alexandre Koudriavtsev 422.53 RUS 159 336 185 -8
194 Carlos Salamanca 422.20 COL 172 311 199 5
195 Boris Pashanski 421.46 SRB 317 140 191 -4
196 Peter Polansky 421.10 CAN 207 240 232 36
197 Thomas Schoorel 420.89 NED 168 319 214 17
198 Matteo Trevisan 420.79 ITA 276 163 203 5
199 Jurgen Zopp 414.56 EST 224 218 200 1
200 Olivier Patience 414.33 FRA 195 266 201 1
201 Peter Gojowczyk 409.16 GER 494 64 189 -12
202 Alex Bogdanovic 407.64 GBR 292 154 181 -21
203 Simone Vagnozzi 403.66 ITA 179 297 194 -9
204 Nikola Ciric 403.34 SRB 198 261 219 15
205 Dominik Meffert 401.84 GER 320 137 218 13
206 Alberto Martin 398.57 ESP 243 194 224 18
207 David Guez 397.25 FRA 169 316 230 23
208 Adrian Ungur 396.66 ROU 185 285 207 -1
209 Jesse Witten 396.25 USA 226 215 226 17
210 Juan Pablo Brzezicki 395.24 ARG 175 307 212 2
211 Alex Bogomolov 395.10 USA 166 327 210 -1
212 Nicolas Devilder 394.33 FRA 414 92 216 4
213 Filip Krajinovic 394.20 SRB 214 230 220 7
214 Nicolas Massu 393.17 CHI 186 284 197 -17
215 Rogerio Silva 390.10 BRA 158 336 222 7
216 Federico del Bonis 389.53 ARG 160 335 239 23
217 Ivan Sergeev 388.99 UKR 199 256 235 18
218 Henri Kontinen 388.37 FIN 273 166 241 23
219 Joseph Sirianni 384.73 AUS 328 131 251 32
220 Joao Sousa 383.64 POR 244 193 209 -11
221 Evgeny Donskoy 383.36 RUS 259 180 237 16
222 Michael Yani 381.85 USA 288 156 213 -9
223 Konstantin Kravchuk 377.88 RUS 146 373 188 -35
224 Alessio di Mauro 377.59 ITA 162 334 221 -3
225 Jorge Aguilar 375.23 CHI 222 220 233 8
226 Filip Prpic 375.11 SWE 310 144 184 -42
227 Izak van der Merwe 374.71 RSA 174 308 195 -32
228 Paul Capdeville 371.44 CHI 165 327 225 -3
229 Bastian Knittel 369.99 GER 220 221 211 -18
230 Dieter Kindlmann 369.93 GER 230 208 231 1
231 Rajeev Ram 366.80 USA 184 285 236 5
232 Jesse Levine 357.52 USA 289 156 217 -15
233 Alex Kuznetsov 356.53 USA 250 188 204 -29
234 Frederik Nielsen 356.36 DEN 262 177 198 -36
235 Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 356.23 GER 375 108 240 5
236 John Millman 355.23 AUS 204 243 242 6
237 Roberto Bautista 354.99 ESP 170 314 253 16
238 Leonardo Tavares 344.83 POR 234 205 247 9
239 Ivan Navarro-Pastor 344.49 ESP 193 277 227 -12
240 Jose Acasuso 342.54 ARG 253 185 229 -11
241 Vladimir Ignatik 341.09 BLR 223 220 215 -26
242 Stefano Galvani 338.15 ITA 274 165 266 24
243 Jan Hernych 336.97 CZE 241 196 238 -5
244 Vincent Millot 336.46 FRA 206 242 246 2
245 Matteo Viola 330.88 ITA 213 231 245 0
246 Ryler DeHeart 330.49 USA 236 202 234 -12
247 Paolo Lorenzi 330.09 ITA 143 384 248 1
248 Julio Silva 329.28 BRA 188 280 276 28
249 Amer Delic 326.30 BIH 463 70 223 -26
250 Alexandre Sidorenko 326.20 FRA 284 158 244 -6
251 Reda El Amrani 325.44 MAR 217 227 271 20
252 Gaston Gaudio 323.12 ARG 326 132 269 17
253 Tatsuma Ito 321.87 JPN 183 286 256 3
254 Gianluca Naso 319.87 ITA 297 150 261 7
255 Laurent Recouderc 319.57 FRA 205 243 257 2
256 Simon Stadler 314.70 GER 268 173 249 -7
257 Michael Lammer 313.97 SUI 251 187 254 -3
258 Martin Vassallo-Arguello 311.66 ARG 290 156 264 6
259 Pavol Cervenak 309.03 SVK 252 186 273 14
260 Noam Okun 304.96 ISR 355 119 250 -10
261 Dominik Hrbaty 300.01 SVK 417 91 260 -1
262 Alberto Brizzi 299.06 ITA 263 176 272 10
263 Thomas Fabbiano 297.93 ITA 313 142 258 -5
264 Ricardo Hocevar 297.36 BRA 237 200 263 -1
265 Dusan Lojda 295.86 CZE 228 212 275 10
266 Christophe Rochus 293.71 BEL 249 189 228 -38
267 Lester Cook 293.69 USA 209 239 268 1
268 Giovanni Lapentti 289.22 ECU 210 232 252 -16
269 Jan Minar 286.36 CZE 346 126 279 10
270 Adrian Menendez 284.13 ESP 283 158 277 7
271 Chris Guccione 282.84 AUS 376 108 243 -28
272 Juan Martin Aranguren 279.14 ARG 388 105 267 -5
273 Andrej Martin 276.63 SVK 177 301 262 -11
274 Charles-Antoine Brezac 275.61 FRA 271 169 290 16
275 Takao Suzuki 273.91 JPN 459 72 288 13
276 Flavio Cipolla 271.49 ITA 212 232 282 6
277 Sergei Bubka, Jr. 270.86 UKR 321 137 274 -3
278 Tsung-Hua Yang 268.03 TPE 305 147 265 -13
279 Caio Zampieri 267.19 BRA 225 218 286 7
280 Marco Crugnola 264.48 ITA 235 202 302 22
281 Thierry Ascione 263.11 FRA 476 68 292 11
282 Facundo Bagnis 261.61 ARG 242 195 284 2
283 Mikhail Ledovskikh 260.94 RUS 373 110 278 -5
284 Daniel Evans 260.39 GBR 363 114 270 -14
285 Yannick Mertens 260.15 BEL 247 191 285 0
286 Attila Balazs 256.82 HUN 190 279 293 7
287 Marek Semjan 255.83 SVK 232 208 281 -6
288 Kristof Vliegen 254.62 BEL 257 184 280 -8
289 Prakash Amritraj 253.85 IND 486 66 301 12
290 Jan-Lennard Struff 251.66 GER 359 116 299 9
291 Marius Copil 251.44 ROU 291 155 255 -36
292 Fritz Wolmarans 250.98 RSA 275 164 289 -3
293 Daniel Kollerer 247.22 AUT 272 166 296 3
294 Yuichi Sugita 244.09 JPN 180 295 313 19
295 Oscar Hernandez 241.28 ESP 221 220 295 0
296 Harel Levy 239.35 ISR 342 127 303 7
297 Greg Jones 238.92 AUS 261 179 291 -6
298 Petru Luncanu 238.36 #N/A 461 72 259 -39
299 Nikola Mektic 237.66 CRO 279 159 283 -16
300 Gabriel Trujillo 232.10 ESP 293 154 306 6
301 Kevin Kim 231.56 USA 245 193 287 -14
302 Ze Zhang 226.10 CHN 315 141 312 10
303 Samuel Groth 223.42 AUS 260 180 304 1
304 Goran Tosic 218.64 MNE 390 104 314 10
305 Jonathan Dasnieres de Veigy 218.46 0 299 149 298 -7
306 Andis Juska 217.87 LAT 338 129 309 3
307 Rameez Junaid 213.69 AUS 393 103 297 -10
308 James Lemke 213.63 AUS 319 138 305 -3
309 Guido Pella 212.55 ARG 420 91 294 -15
310 Andre Begemann 212.45 GER 356 118 310 0
311 Laurynas Grigelis 207.60 LTU 404 99 321 10
312 Guillermo Olaso 206.94 ESP 218 227 308 -4
313 Inigo Cervantes 206.20 ESP 360 116 311 -2
314 Francesco Aldi 204.99 ITA 322 137 318 4
315 Riccardo Ghedin 201.28 ITA 277 162 300 -15
316 Benjamin Balleret 198.36 MON 443 79 307 -9
317 Victor Estrella 197.39 DOM 211 232 316 -1
318 Kyu-Tae Im 195.06 KOR 484 66 330 12
319 Daniele Giorgini 193.81 ITA 309 145 315 -4
320 Marcel Felder 189.92 URU 407 97 328 8
321 Sebastian Decoud 185.01 ARG 219 222 325 4
322 Luka Gregorc 184.08 SLO 464 70 326 4
323 Jamie Baker 182.32 GBR 367 112 319 -4
324 Roko Karanusic 179.25 CRO 426 90 332 8
325 Rubin Statham 177.70 NZL 452 76 317 -8
326 Michael McClune 176.80 USA 507 59 327 1
327 Martin Alund 176.54 ARG 349 125 320 -7
328 David Marrero 175.83 ESP 387 105 323 -5
329 Santiago Gonzalez 173.66 MEX 255 185 337 8
330 Evgeni Kirillov 173.01 RUS 304 147 322 -8
331 Catalin Gard 159.24 ROU 412 94 324 -7
332 Andrea Arnaboldi 153.84 ITA 294 154 333 1
333 Martin Slanar 151.19 AUT 546 47 334 1
334 Pedro Clar 146.41 ESP 370 111 331 -3
335 Daniel King-Turner 142.99 NZL 334 130 336 1
336 Philipp Oswald 139.58 AUT 413 93 339 3
337 Niels Desein 137.94 BEL 300 149 342 5
338 Alejandro Gonzalez 133.45 COL 361 116 343 5
339 Brydan Klein 133.25 AUS 215 229 335 -4
340 Jiri Vanek 131.60 CZE 701 22 340 0
341 Pierre-Ludovic Duclos 131.41 CAN 433 83 329 -12
342 Pablo Santos-Gonzalez 121.24 ESP 270 170 341 -1
343 Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol 114.18 ESP 264 175 338 -5
344 Ivo Klec 100.07 SVK 246 191 345 1
345 Vasek Pospisil 95.64 CAN 339 129 344 -1

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